Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by Year's End

cnredd · #1 (**permalink**) 02-22-2008, 01:52 PM

Quote:

New simulations carried out by European Union experts come to an alarming conclusion: Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb by the end of this year.

Could Iran be building an atomic bomb? When the US released a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) late last year, it seemed as though the danger of a mullah-bomb had passed. The report claimed to have information indicating that Tehran mothballed its nuclear weapons program as early as autumn 2003. The paper also said that it was "very unlikely" that Iran would have enough highly enriched uranium -- the primary ingredient in atomic bombs -- by 2009 to produce such a weapon. Rather, the NIE indicated "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough (highly enriched uranium) for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 timeframe."

It didn't take long for experts to question the report's conclusion that Tehran was no longer interested in building the bomb. And now, a new computer simulation undertaken by European Union experts indicates that the NIE's time estimates might be dangerously inaccurate as well -- and that Iran might have enough fuel for a bomb much earlier than was previously thought.

As part of a project to improve control of nuclear materials, the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, Italy set up a detailed simulation of the centrifuges currently used by Iran in the Natanz nuclear facility to enrich uranium. The results look nothing like those reached by the US intelligence community.

For one scenario, the JRC scientists assumed the centrifuges in Natanz were operating at 100 percent efficiency. Were that the case, Iran could already have the 25 kilograms of highly enriched uranium necessary for an atomic device by the end of this year. Another scenario assumed a much lower efficiency -- just 25 percent. But even then, Iran would have produced enough uranium by the end of 2010.

Two points of interest...

First, this shows that the NIE is, indeed, an ESTMATE...People taking it as gospel was just plain absurd...

But more important...Does it MATTER if Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in 1 year or 4 years?...Either way, it should be confronted NOW instead of just thinking "oh we got time still."...By then, it may be too late...

Spencer Collins · #2 (**permalink**) 02-22-2008, 02:27 PM

Exactly right,we must keep a close eye on these developments.The reasons "should" be obvious but many people need to be reminded of the threat that Iran represents.

Mikeyy · #3 (**permalink**) 02-22-2008, 10:49 PM

Maybe we should try and make them our friends?

We better wake up to the facts that our power is over rated. And our ability to handle things diplomatically is underdeveloped

cnredd · #4 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

Maybe we should try and make them our friends?

We better wake up to the facts that our power is over rated. And our ability to handle things diplomatically is underdeveloped

The EU-3 had over 3 years of negotiating with Iran with ZERO results...

Please don't tell me about America's inability to use diplomacy...

Mikeyy · #5 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 12:59 AM

What do you think Iran wants a nuke for? And I agree they do. But for what use? Pakistans nukes have given them the power to harbor OBL. And Iran Isn't blind to that. Other then gaining what they perceive as prestige though. Who would they attack?

cnredd · #6 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

Other then gaining what they perceive as prestige though. Who would they attack?

Israel should be wiped off map, says Iran's president

Quote:

Iran's new president created a sense of outrage in the west yesterday by describing Israel as a "disgraceful blot" that should be "wiped off the face of the earth". Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is more hardline than his predecessor, told students in Tehran that a new wave of Palestinian attacks would be enough to finish off Israel.

The populist leader's comments, reported by the state-run media, come at a time when Tehran is under pressure over its suspect nuclear weapons ambitions and alleged involvement in attacks on British troops in Iraq.

AND it doesn't have to be themselves that "pull the trigger"...What happens if they hand off the waepons to Hamas and claim innocence?...

Hamas Charter

Quote:

Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it."

"There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors."

You can tut-tut this away like most people tut-tutted planes crashing into buildings on September 10th, but it figures like this...

If we didn't try to prevent Iran from getting nuclear knowledge, materials, and weaponry, and we find I'M right and YOU'RE wrong, hundreds of thousands of people will be killed...

You're willing to take that chance?...

Mikeyy · #7 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 01:47 AM

Ah your just mad because your another year closer to death.

cnredd · #8 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

Ah your just mad because your another year closer to death.

Ummm...Okay...

Now back to the program...

Iran fails to answer weapons questions: IAEA

Quote:

The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Friday it confronted Iran for the first time with Western intelligence reports showing work linked to making atomic bombs and that Tehran had failed to provide satisfactory answers.

The United States passed the intelligence, which came mainly from a laptop spirited out of Iran, to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2005 but out of fear for its spies only authorized the IAEA to present it last month, diplomats said.

The IAEA said Iran had dismissed the intelligence as "baseless" or "fabricated", but had provided increased cooperation on other issues in the past few months.

Iran's increased transparency amounted to a doubled-edged sword as it reaffirmed Tehran was forging ahead with uranium enrichment in defiance of U.N. Security Council demands to stop all proliferation-sensitive nuclear activity.

The IAEA findings, which also said Iran had failed to clear up all outstanding questions by an agreed February deadline, may spur the Security Council to adopt a third round of sanctions against the Islamic Republic as early as next week.

These are the people you "trust" with nuclear technology...

lackluster · #9 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

Maybe we should try and make them our friends?

We could always try beheading our homosexuals, slicing off all our theives hands, stoning our rape victims and hanging some teenage girls from the gallows in our pulic squares.

That would bring us closer.

Mikeyy · #10 (**permalink**) 02-23-2008, 10:22 AM

My point is that every time we get upset with a government we alienate the peoples of these countries by under estimating their nationalism. Young Iranians don't hate America. But if we don't get smart about dealing with these people they will. I don't support Bush but if someone from a foreign country told me my country was evil because Bush was in charge I would tell them to piss off. And that would be normal nationalism. The dictators in these regions rely on our arrogance to hold power.
With the rise of other countries challenging our economic and military power we need friends then we need more weapons. Its time to get smart. We tried getting tough. It just backfires these days. IMHO

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