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Old 10-30-2019, 09:43 PM
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Default For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching him

For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching him

Since ascending to the Speakership of the House in January, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has had a difficult line to walk. The more progressive wing of her caucus wanted to move quickly on impeaching President Donald Trump citing campaign finance violations, the emoluments clause, and the then still-to-be-concluded Mueller investigation. Meanwhile Democrats elected in more moderate districts worried that impeachment would hurt their re-election chances.

Many decisions that leaders make involve the balancing of risks. In criminal justice, the phrase “innocent until proven guilty” is intended to convey a decision that we — as a society — should worry more about the risk of convicting an innocent person than the risk of letting a guilty one walk free. Regulatory decisions also often reflect this “risk-risk” tradeoff. If we regulate vaping products too loosely, these products may harm people. If we regulate them too tightly, we risk more deaths from people smoking tobacco rather than vaping.

In first deciding whether to open an impeachment inquiry, and now facing questions of how quickly to proceed, and whether to have a vote on the floor about opening such an inquiry, Speaker Pelosi has been wrestling with balancing risks. Her task is complicated by the fact that she is weighing the risks to her political party as well as the risks to the country.

As the leader of the Democrats in the House, the Speaker has a responsibility to her party. Pursuing impeachment, if the public does not believe such a course is justified, leaves moderate Democrats open to challenges from Republicans as they seek re-election in 2020. Losing seats held by moderate Democrats in turn puts at risk the Democratic majority in the House. For the first nine months of her term, this risk seems to have predominated in Pelosi’s mind.

However, the Democrats also faced (and continue to face) risks by neglecting to impeach the president. The 2020 campaign for Congress will likely be focused on how people feel about the president since he will be at the top of the Republican ticket. A decision not to impeach clearly sends the signal that the offenses President Trump has been found to have committed by Mueller and others are not worthy of impeachment. Not impeaching him would allow Trump to claim that everything — from the obstruction of justice scenarios outlined by Special Counsel Robert Mueller to the current Ukraine scandal — was nothing more than “fake news” and that the Democrats agreed with him (or else they would have pursued impeachment). This would weaken the Democratic electoral position.

As the Speaker of the House, Pelosi also has the responsibility of considering the risks to the country of either impeaching or not impeaching the president. Impeachment would be a national spectacle, and it is unlikely that Congress would be able to work on other legislation while it progressed (although it’s not clear that the Senate is allowing much legislation to pass anyway).

On the other hand, if one believes, as Speaker Pelosi appears to, that Trump’s offenses amount to the very high crimes and misdemeanors envisioned by the founders, the risk of not impeaching him is to sanction those offenses and give future presidents (of either party) license to pursue them. Not impeaching Trump would also exacerbate the risk of the century-long trend of strengthening the executive branch at the expense of the legislature.

The Ukraine scandal, and the constant drumbeat of revelations that it has unleashed, seems to have changed Speaker Pelosi’s assessment of the risks. Her decision to hold a vote on Thursday on the floor of the House is evidence of this change. As polls indicate growing support for impeachment, the electoral risks to Democrats have shifted — and the risk of not impeaching now outweighs the risk of impeaching for Speaker Pelosi’s party. And the increasing certainty that the president offered Congressionally approved aid to Ukraine in return for investigation of his political rivals (and that he abandoned our Kurdish allies in Syria) has made it clear that the risks of not attempting to remove him from office have increased for the country.
Impeachment by the House has become increasingly likely. Soon the job of assessing risks both to his party and his country will pass to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Good points
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Old 10-31-2019, 12:14 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

What a buffoon, the Mueller report didn't show any collusion by by any American nor did it make any conclusion about Trump obstructing the investigation. Likewise there is no scandal from the Ukrainian phone call. Bureaucrats whining about the President conducting foreign policy not to their liking ought to resign, they serve the President, not vice versa.

House floor votes on impeachment that break on party lines as they are likely to do only expose the partisan nature of the Democrats action. As Congressman Green pointedly observed unless Trump is impeached he is likely to win reelection.
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Old 11-01-2019, 07:36 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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What a buffoon, the Mueller report didn't show any collusion by by any American nor did it make any conclusion about Trump obstructing the investigation. Likewise there is no scandal from the Ukrainian phone call. Bureaucrats whining about the President conducting foreign policy not to their liking ought to resign, they serve the President, not vice versa.

House floor votes on impeachment that break on party lines as they are likely to do only expose the partisan nature of the Democrats action. As Congressman Green pointedly observed unless Trump is impeached he is likely to win reelection.
Pelosi already stated that is the main reason Trump must be impeached.--That he might win the election. The Democrats "in charge" of the impeachment kangaroo court know fully well that their constituents are so stupid, they could not recognize a fart from a member of Congress.
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Old 11-01-2019, 09:01 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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Pelosi already stated that is the main reason Trump must be impeached.--That he might win the election. The Democrats "in charge" of the impeachment kangaroo court know fully well that their constituents are so stupid, they could not recognize a fart from a member of Congress.
I would find it hard to distinguish between the two when one is a current Democratic member of Congress.
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Old 11-01-2019, 05:56 PM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

The title should actually read as follows:
For Pelosi the risk of committing treason has exceeded the risks of not committing treason.
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Old 11-08-2019, 12:04 PM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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Originally Posted by saltwn View Post
For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching him

Since ascending to the Speakership of the House in January, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has had a difficult line to walk. The more progressive wing of her caucus wanted to move quickly on impeaching President Donald Trump citing campaign finance violations, the emoluments clause, and the then still-to-be-concluded Mueller investigation. Meanwhile Democrats elected in more moderate districts worried that impeachment would hurt their re-election chances.

Many decisions that leaders make involve the balancing of risks. In criminal justice, the phrase “innocent until proven guilty” is intended to convey a decision that we — as a society — should worry more about the risk of convicting an innocent person than the risk of letting a guilty one walk free. Regulatory decisions also often reflect this “risk-risk” tradeoff. If we regulate vaping products too loosely, these products may harm people. If we regulate them too tightly, we risk more deaths from people smoking tobacco rather than vaping.

In first deciding whether to open an impeachment inquiry, and now facing questions of how quickly to proceed, and whether to have a vote on the floor about opening such an inquiry, Speaker Pelosi has been wrestling with balancing risks. Her task is complicated by the fact that she is weighing the risks to her political party as well as the risks to the country.

As the leader of the Democrats in the House, the Speaker has a responsibility to her party. Pursuing impeachment, if the public does not believe such a course is justified, leaves moderate Democrats open to challenges from Republicans as they seek re-election in 2020. Losing seats held by moderate Democrats in turn puts at risk the Democratic majority in the House. For the first nine months of her term, this risk seems to have predominated in Pelosi’s mind.

However, the Democrats also faced (and continue to face) risks by neglecting to impeach the president. The 2020 campaign for Congress will likely be focused on how people feel about the president since he will be at the top of the Republican ticket. A decision not to impeach clearly sends the signal that the offenses President Trump has been found to have committed by Mueller and others are not worthy of impeachment. Not impeaching him would allow Trump to claim that everything — from the obstruction of justice scenarios outlined by Special Counsel Robert Mueller to the current Ukraine scandal — was nothing more than “fake news” and that the Democrats agreed with him (or else they would have pursued impeachment). This would weaken the Democratic electoral position.

As the Speaker of the House, Pelosi also has the responsibility of considering the risks to the country of either impeaching or not impeaching the president. Impeachment would be a national spectacle, and it is unlikely that Congress would be able to work on other legislation while it progressed (although it’s not clear that the Senate is allowing much legislation to pass anyway).

On the other hand, if one believes, as Speaker Pelosi appears to, that Trump’s offenses amount to the very high crimes and misdemeanors envisioned by the founders, the risk of not impeaching him is to sanction those offenses and give future presidents (of either party) license to pursue them. Not impeaching Trump would also exacerbate the risk of the century-long trend of strengthening the executive branch at the expense of the legislature.
I generally agree with this assessment: It is quite analytical--and so am I, by nature.

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Originally Posted by saltwn View Post
The Ukraine scandal, and the constant drumbeat of revelations that it has unleashed, seems to have changed Speaker Pelosi’s assessment of the risks. Her decision to hold a vote on Thursday on the floor of the House is evidence of this change. As polls indicate growing support for impeachment, the electoral risks to Democrats have shifted — and the risk of not impeaching now outweighs the risk of impeaching for Speaker Pelosi’s party. And the increasing certainty that the president offered Congressionally approved aid to Ukraine in return for investigation of his political rivals (and that he abandoned our Kurdish allies in Syria) has made it clear that the risks of not attempting to remove him from office have increased for the country.
Impeachment by the House has become increasingly likely. Soon the job of assessing risks both to his party and his country will pass to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
But this, not so much.

I think that Speaker Pelosi's agreeing to pursue impeachment has nothing to do with a "shift" in the "polls"--and everything to do with a desire to placate her (increasingly loud and fractious) left-wing base.
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Old 11-09-2019, 12:29 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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I generally agree with this assessment: It is quite analytical--and so am I, by nature.



But this, not so much.

I think that Speaker Pelosi's agreeing to pursue impeachment has nothing to do with a "shift" in the "polls"--and everything to do with a desire to placate her (increasingly loud and fractious) left-wing base.
Why would you think a powerful and corporate connected speaker from a safe district in California would be pressured by newbies in the house simply because they are loud?

She has said time and again when there was something to impeach for the house would go forward. I suspect she knew that eventually, the chaos driven president would slip in his own oatmeal so to speak. And when he admitted that everything the whistleblower had indicated was correct, she simply had no choice.
Do you think she is so stupid she would rile up Trump's base to defend him? No, she is not but she is sensible when faced with the constitutional issue. And thank God for that.
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Old 11-09-2019, 12:30 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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Originally Posted by loboloco View Post
The title should actually read as follows:
For Pelosi the risk of committing treason has exceeded the risks of not committing treason.
to put it more clearly the risk of overlooking treason is greater than losing a few political points.
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Old 11-09-2019, 10:06 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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to put it more clearly the risk of overlooking treason is greater than losing a few political points.
So they want to impeach a president and destroy all belief in the system solely because their candidate lost? There has been three years of the democrats trying to find something to impeach Trump for. The only result has been utter failure by the democrats. So now they are attempting to use star chamber tactics to attempt to convince the American people that a president performing his constitutionally mandated duties are illegal. This is nothing more than an attempted coup. Enough has come out to know That Shiff is deliberately and willfully spreading lies in the form of leaks and releases. There is no there there. Shiff and Pelosi are knowingly and willfully attempting to overthrow a duly elected president who has done nothing illegal. In doing so, they are attempting to destroy the constitutional underpinnings of the republic. If they manage this, there will be no legitimate federal government in existence.
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Old 11-09-2019, 11:41 AM
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Default Re: For Pelosi, the risk of not impeaching Trump has exceeded the risk of impeaching

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Originally Posted by loboloco View Post
So they want to impeach a president and destroy all belief in the system solely because their candidate lost? There has been three years of the democrats trying to find something to impeach Trump for. The only result has been utter failure by the democrats. So now they are attempting to use star chamber tactics to attempt to convince the American people that a president performing his constitutionally mandated duties are illegal. This is nothing more than an attempted coup. Enough has come out to know That Shiff is deliberately and willfully spreading lies in the form of leaks and releases. There is no there there. Shiff and Pelosi are knowingly and willfully attempting to overthrow a duly elected president who has done nothing illegal. In doing so, they are attempting to destroy the constitutional underpinnings of the republic. If they manage this, there will be no legitimate federal government in existence.
Pretty soon we'll see the headline, "House Democrats vote to put Trump on double-secret probation"...
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