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-   -   Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate (http://www.politicalwrinkles.com/us-congress-legislative-branch/39832-nate-silver-new-forecast-gop-takes-over-senate.html)

foundit66 08-04-2014 04:36 PM
Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
It's no secret that Nate Silver's predictions are close to perfect. The 36-year old former New York Times syndicated statistician left The Gray Lady for ESPN where he now prognosticates on his first love -- sports -- and, occasionally, politics.

So accurate is Silver that Republicans waged war against him in 2012, when his predictions increasingly assured President Obama a strong win, that one radical Republican created the concept of "Unskewed Polls," which assured a President Mitt Romney. The world knows how that ended.

Today, at his FiveThirtyEight website, Silver offers Republicans assurances of a likely takeover of the Senate, noting that "the most likely outcome involves the Republicans winning about the six seats they need to take over the Senate, give or take a couple."

"Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error."

Silver does offer Democrats a glimmer of hope.

"I also want to advance a cautionary note. It’s still early, and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races."
Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate - The New Civil Rights Movement

Doesn't surprise me.
At the same time, it's too early to count the unhatched eggs.

FrancSevin 08-04-2014 05:10 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by foundit66 (Post 685134)
Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate - The New Civil Rights Movement

Doesn't surprise me.
At the same time, it's too early to count the unhatched eggs.
Agreed. Almost none of the "experts" saw Barry winning in 2012.

It is gonna be like watcing a train wreck. Who survives is still unknown until thesmke clears.

Dave1 08-04-2014 05:41 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrancSevin (Post 685141)
Agreed. Almost none of the "experts" saw Barry winning in 2012.
No. Not from the right wing and the Tea Party….

FOX news had Romney winning by a landslide….

Dick the rat Morris and Karl Rove both got fired after the election for all their bill-**** leading up to the 2012 election. Most had it close, Nate Silver had Obama winning….

Jackass master 08-04-2014 06:09 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
At this point what difference does it make......:nahnah

FrancSevin 08-04-2014 06:16 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave1 (Post 685144)
No. Not from the right wing and the Tea Party….

FOX news had Romney winning by a landslide….

Dick the rat Morris and Karl Rove both got fired after the election for all their bill-**** leading up to the 2012 election. Most had it close, Nate Silver had Obama winning….
No, they didn't. In fact they pulled the election for Obama one hour after the east coast polls were closed. Bill O'reilly guessed it earlier and folded his tent by 8:00 eastern.


That said, they did post Rasmusen, Pew and other polsters data,,,,Just like everybody else did. The Poltsters had it wrong, And consequently, so did virtually every news organization until election day.

Except perhaps, MSNBC which never uses the facts, just their hope and dreams.

You guys will find every reason to chew on Bush and FOX. That's fine when they deserve it. But get it right please. I sometimes wonder if deceitfulness is a contest and lefties, and those on the right, think they win a prize for pushing the limits of it.

As for the coming elections, there is very little factual data upon which to judge. Public opinion onmany issues go negative to the President. But most folks think their incumbant is a stand up guy and re-elect. There are perhpaps 6 to 8 senate seats swinging. Public opinion polls over 10 days old are stale bread, and worthless.
We have 13 weeks of pendelum to swing.

I betting that the House gains some Elephants and the senate hits 50/50.

That is frankly optimisticaly hopeful.

Jackass master 08-04-2014 06:21 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Then Biden would have to keep his pants on all the time to break tie votes...:D

WallyWager 08-04-2014 06:22 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrancSevin (Post 685152)
No, they didn't. In fact they pulled the election for Obama one hour after the east coast polls were closed. Bill O'reilly guessed it earlier and folded his tent by 8:00 eastern.


That said, they did post Rasmusen, Pew and other polsters data,,,,Just like everybody else did. The Poltsters had it wrong,
What? Both Dick Morris and Karl Rove predicted a Romney win the day before the election, Morris was saying Romney would win in some ridiculous ~350EV landslide. Rove himself challenged the Fox News election team's call of Ohio for Obama on air.

Jackass master 08-04-2014 06:26 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
After Obama screwed the coal miners I doubt Ohio will go dem this time.

cnredd 08-04-2014 06:27 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
So accurate is Silver that Republicans waged war against him in 2012, when his predictions increasingly assured President Obama a strong win, that one radical Republican created the concept of "Unskewed Polls," which assured a President Mitt Romney. The world knows how that ended.
What the article DOESN'T tell you is that the Democrats are "waging war" against Silver NOW...

Democrats ditch Nate Silver after data whiz predicts dismal midterm outcome

Democrats turn on Nate Silver

Democrats chide Nate Silver for predicting a GOP Senate takeover

Democrats to Nate Silver: You're Wrong

More than happy to say "Republicans attacked him" way back when to make the Republicans look like sourpusses, but don't dare say so when the Democrats do PRESENTLY...Can't make them look the same now...:rolls

FrancSevin 08-04-2014 08:04 PM
Re: Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 685158)
What? Both Dick Morris and Karl Rove predicted a Romney win the day before the election, Morris was saying Romney would win in some ridiculous ~350EV landslide. Rove himself challenged the Fox News election team's call of Ohio for Obama on air.
Neither of them are newscasters for FOX, nor are they news analysts,

THEY ARE CONTRIBUTORS.

You failed to mention those contributors who said different in direct response to Rove and Morris.

If you are having trouble with this concept, read your own post wherein you actually noted the conflict with the FOX NEWS ELECTION TEAM.

BTW:
Note that Dick Morris is almost never on FOX anymore.


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