Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > Political Forums > The President & the Executive Branch
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

The President & the Executive Branch Discuss How Donald Trump is Claiming Credit for Barack Obama's Successes at the Political Forums; Since almost immediately after his inauguration as 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump has been claiming credit for ...

Reply
 
Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 03-13-2017, 07:40 PM
winston53660's Avatar
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 9,525
Thanks: 1,760
Thanked 3,917 Times in 2,932 Posts
Default How Donald Trump is Claiming Credit for Barack Obama's Successes

Since almost immediately after his inauguration as 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump has been claiming credit for what he sees as a miraculous recovery in the nation’s economy. Barely a day goes by without a tweet trumpeting a new jobs deal or the strength of the U.S. stockmarket.

<snip>

The S&P 500 has gone up by 3.8 percent since Trump took office. And that’s great—but the S&P 500 has been rising since before the November 8 election and, notably, was also rising when polls were favoring Hillary Clinton as the next U.S. president. The most recent data on the very same index also shows that it is now moving downwards – after peaking at 2395.96 on March 1 it fell over the following days, closing at 2362.98 on March 8. Given its volatility, it is difficult to extract from this a clear signal of performance.

Consumer confidence is measured via the Consumer Confidence Index, which is published on the last Tuesday of every month. The analysis of the survey data shows that consumers’ confidence increased in February and remains at a 15-year high, reflecting improved expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business, and to a lesser degree jobs and income prospects. That said, the Consumer Confidence Index showed a moderate decline in January.

Politics
How Donald Trump is Claiming Credit for Barack Obama's Successes
Gabriella Legrenzi,Newsweek 12 hours ago
Comments Sign in to like Reblog on Tumblr Share Tweet Email
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Since almost immediately after his inauguration as 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump has been claiming credit for what he sees as a miraculous recovery in the nation’s economy. Barely a day goes by without a tweet trumpeting a new jobs deal or the strength of the U.S. stockmarket.

But how much credit is actually due to his administration? Incoming governments have a tendency to claim merit for post-electoral improvements in the economy and to blame their predecessors for worsening conditions—but how long does it really take for any policy changes to work their way through the system?

In a recent tweet, Donald Trump emphasized the increasing strength of the U.S. economy, based on different indicators.


Here, Trump is referring to the S&P 500 Index and the newly released February 2017 Consumer Confidence Survey. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is commonly accepted as an accurate indicator of equity performance, being based on 500 stocks selected by analysts considering a number of factors such as market size and sector weight.

The S&P 500 has gone up by 3.8 percent since Trump took office. And that’s great—but the S&P 500 has been rising since before the November 8 election and, notably, was also rising when polls were favoring Hillary Clinton as the next U.S. president. The most recent data on the very same index also shows that it is now moving downwards – after peaking at 2395.96 on March 1 it fell over the following days, closing at 2362.98 on March 8. Given its volatility, it is difficult to extract from this a clear signal of performance.

Consumer confidence is measured via the Consumer Confidence Index, which is published on the last Tuesday of every month. The analysis of the survey data shows that consumers’ confidence increased in February and remains at a 15-year high, reflecting improved expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business, and to a lesser degree jobs and income prospects. That said, the Consumer Confidence Index showed a moderate decline in January.

Jobs, jobs, jobs



Here, the president is referring to the March 2017 LinkedIn workforce report, showing that the “hiring rate” across the U.S. was 1.4 percent higher in February 2017 than in February 2016.

Some caution needs to be applied here, as the “hiring rate” considered in this report is calculated as the percentage of LinkedIn members who changed the name of their new employer on their profile the same month they began their new job, divided by the total number of LinkedIn members. The report shows that this “hiring rate” has been on the rise since December—but it has fallen since January, and, considering the past two years, it has exhibited higher peaks during Obama’s term.

If we consider the Business Confidence Index (BCI) provided by the OECD and based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future, it’s clear that business confidence has been on the rise since the beginning of 2016.

,<snip>

Trump recently tweeted boastfully about Exxon Mobil’s plans to invest $20 billion over ten years in the U.S. Gulf region to expand its manufacturing and export capacity.

But you need to take this with a pinch of salt. This investment actually began in 2013 and is motivated by the desire to take advantage of the American energy revolution—in fact, it began even before Trump’s announcement to contest the presidential election.

Economic policy is subject to different types of lags: recognition lags, decision lags and implementation lags. These refer to the time necessary to learn about economic conditions, the time it takes to decide on an appropriate policy response, and the implementation period once the policy is chosen. Empirical evidence suggests that it takes policymakers and legislatures more than a quarter from learning about the economic conditions to deciding what fiscal measures are appropriate, passing them through legislature and actually implementing them.

<SNIP>

One influential study by British economist Andrew Mountford and U.S. economist Harald Uhlig in 2009, which was based on data on the U.S. economy, found that the maximum impact is estimated to occur only after five years.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-tr...122009735.html

What rump da Trump is.
__________________
Originally Posted by TiredRetired View Post
Damn shame it couldn't have been a father / son event. IMHO.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to winston53660 For This Useful Post:
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 03-13-2017, 10:05 PM
Hairy Jello's Avatar
Deplorable
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 16,284
Thanks: 1,644
Thanked 9,298 Times in 5,770 Posts
Default Re: How Donald Trump is Claiming Credit for Barack Obama's Successes

In order to claim someone's success, they have to first have success.

"Obama" and "success" can never be seriously used in the same sentence.

Trump has already created more jobs than Obama did. Obama had a negative net loss in jobs over his 8 years. An organ monkey coulda done a better job than that.
__________________

Not an accurate representation of a white person.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Hairy Jello For This Useful Post:
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 03-13-2017, 10:11 PM
winston53660's Avatar
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 9,525
Thanks: 1,760
Thanked 3,917 Times in 2,932 Posts
Default Re: How Donald Trump is Claiming Credit for Barack Obama's Successes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hairy Jello View Post
In order to claim someone's success, they have to first have success.

"Obama" and "success" can never be seriously used in the same sentence.

Trump has already created more jobs than Obama did. Obama had a negative net loss in jobs over his 8 years. An organ monkey coulda done a better job than that.
Are you bucking for Spicer's gig.
__________________
Originally Posted by TiredRetired View Post
Damn shame it couldn't have been a father / son event. IMHO.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to winston53660 For This Useful Post:
Reply

Tags
barack, claiming, credit, donald, for, how, obama, successes, trump

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:18 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0