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Polls Discuss Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll at the General Forum; Very early, pre-meat grinder stuff, but I can see this happening in Michigan. The "F-ck it and f-ck Hillary, give ...

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Old 06-14-2019, 10:58 AM
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Default Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

Very early, pre-meat grinder stuff, but I can see this happening in Michigan. The "F-ck it and f-ck Hillary, give him a shot!" constituency isn't here anymore, Trump has done nothing other than flame up his base whilst alienating the rest of the country, and Dems won all statewide offices and flipped a couple of House seats last year. And this is far from the only poll showing Trump losing to Biden in Michigan by a lot. He also loses to Bernie by about as much in other polling.

Quote:
WASHINGTON – A new poll out Friday suggests more trouble for President Donald Trump's reelection hopes in Michigan, with the survey showing him 11 percentage points behind former Vice President Joe Biden in a head-to-head race.

The poll by EPIC-MRA of Lansing also suggests, for the second time since March, that a majority of Michiganders support replacing Trump or would consider voting for someone else. Less than a third said they would definitely reelect him.

In a head-to-head matchup, Biden, who is only one of some two dozen candidates but leads most polls among the Democratic field for the nomination, held a 52%-41% edge on Trump, who won Michigan by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

"He (Trump) is, I think, in trouble in terms of getting reelected when Biden has numbers this strong," said pollster Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA, which conducted the survey of 600 active and likely voters this month. "It's pretty consistent with what we've seen before on (Trump's) job approval numbers."

The poll comes at a time when Trump is trying to refute reports that he told aides to deny the results of internal campaign polls that purportedly show him trailing in Michigan and other key states to Biden, calling the media reports "fake numbers" and declaring, "WE WILL WIN AGAIN" on Twitter.

Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll
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Old 06-14-2019, 11:12 AM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

A saw a report on TV a couple of days ago that the same polling places that have Trump down by double digits are the same places that, at this same time frame, had Mondale over Reagan, Dole over Clinton, and Hillary over Trump...

I won't pay attention to any of these kinds of polls until a Democrat is officially nominated...I'm sorry, but "Trump loses to someone who may not even be the nominee and won't run against him head-to-head!" isn't interesting...
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Old 06-14-2019, 12:35 PM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

No show Joe prospers by avoiding campaigning with the other candidates. This allows him to retain the romantic facade of being the second coming of Obama.

It seems like every week he repudiates a long held policy position pandering to the far Left wing of the Democrat party. That's going to catch up with him when he engages his rivals for the nomination.
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Old 06-14-2019, 02:45 PM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

Head to head polling is largely worthless as a predictive device at this point. Far more of a problem for Trump are the polls showing upwards of 55% of voters saying that they definitely won’t vote for Trump in 2020. Comparable polls asking voters whether they would definitely not be voting for Obama peaked at 42% during his first term. The thing about Trump is that he’s not only the least popular president in modern history, he’s also the president who has generated the highest level of strong opposition among those who disapprove of him.
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Old 06-14-2019, 11:56 PM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

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Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
Head to head polling is largely worthless as a predictive device at this point. Far more of a problem for Trump are the polls showing upwards of 55% of voters saying that they definitely won’t vote for Trump in 2020. Comparable polls asking voters whether they would definitely not be voting for Obama peaked at 42% during his first term. The thing about Trump is that he’s not only the least popular president in modern history, he’s also the president who has generated the highest level of strong opposition among those who disapprove of him.
The one thing that Trump has (and Democrats are scared sh*tless about but will never admit it) is the extra-large contingency of voters who simply shut their pieholes lest they get attacked (both vocally or violently) for showing or saying they support Trump...The Left demands NOTHING LESS than every word spoken or every word printed must not say anything nicer than "Trump is a Nazi devil!"...

So MANY Trump supporters sit on their hands and not even bring up politics...

...until they vote for Trump...and the same people whose jaws dropped at the 2016 election simply don't learn that polls don't reflect the true feeling of the contingency...

The 'silent Trump supporter' has gone global, and so has the Red Hen

Quote:
The 2016 election gave us the “Silent Trump Supporter” — Trump voters who would not reveal their true sympathies to pollsters.

This was a great mystery at the time, but seeing now how Trump supporters are routinely denigrated, harassed and vilified, their silence was understandable if not prescient.
Poll: 4 of 10 voters are 'silent Trump supporters'

Quote:
Nearly four in 10 voters silently support President Trump, but don't 'fess up to their friends or pollsters, according to a new survey.

Zogby Analytics found that 38 percent admitted that "even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues."

Another 53 percent disagreed and 9 percent were "not sure," said the poll, provided to Secrets.

The results both reinforce a view inside the White House that support for Trump is higher than public approval polls show and raise new questions about the accuracy of those same polls if people are not going to tell the truth.
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Old 06-15-2019, 05:05 AM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

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Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
The one thing that Trump has (and Democrats are scared sh*tless about but will never admit it) is the extra-large contingency of voters who simply shut their pieholes lest they get attacked (both vocally or violently) for showing or saying they support Trump...The Left demands NOTHING LESS than every word spoken or every word printed must not say anything nicer than "Trump is a Nazi devil!"...

So MANY Trump supporters sit on their hands and not even bring up politics...

...until they vote for Trump...and the same people whose jaws dropped at the 2016 election simply don't learn that polls don't reflect the true feeling of the contingency...

The 'silent Trump supporter' has gone global, and so has the Red Hen



Poll: 4 of 10 voters are 'silent Trump supporters'
The problem with this theory is that we have one, non-poll measure of Trump’s level of support and it was 46.1% of the voting population, less than Mitt Romney and about the same as John McCain had in their elections. And, if you ignore undecideds (who split roughly equally between Trump and Clinton), his vote total was roughly equal to his final polling average. In 2016, there was no significant block of Trump support hidden from pollsters.
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Old 06-15-2019, 11:38 AM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

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Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
The problem with this theory is that we have one, non-poll measure of Trumpís level of support and it was 46.1% of the voting population, less than Mitt Romney and about the same as John McCain had in their elections. And, if you ignore undecideds (who split roughly equally between Trump and Clinton), his vote total was roughly equal to his final polling average. In 2016, there was no significant block of Trump support hidden from pollsters.
No?...

When the New York Times had Hillary's chances of winning at 91% and loses, there was something hidden alright...

When Time magazine showed SEVEN electoral college maps with Hillary Clinton winning every single one of them (The LA Times map had Hillary winning 352-to-186), and then she goes on to lose by 77 electoral college votes (304-to-227), there was something hidden alright...
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Old 06-15-2019, 12:11 PM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

Uh, people. There is a reason why Biden said he would cure cancer if he were elected president, and I said it before.

Biden does not stand a snowflake fart's chance in Hell of winning. He knows it, and that's why he said it.

Double digits my ass. Who did the polls? Baghdad Bob?
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Old 06-15-2019, 12:31 PM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

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Double digits my ass. Who did the polls? Baghdad Bob?
Some local polling outlet called "EPIC-MRA of Lansing"...

Funny...The Detroit free Press, in the original post, talks about the poll, but does not LINK to it...

So I went to EPIC-MRA of Lansing's actual website...Know what?...THEY don't even have the poll on their website!!!!...

Here's some more humor...

This same polling outlet conducted a poll ONE MONTH before the 2016 presidential election in Michigan, and had Hillary up by ELEVEN points!!!!...

She outright lost Michigan...
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Old 06-15-2019, 06:03 PM
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Default Re: Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits in new statewide Michigan poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
The problem with this theory is that we have one, non-poll measure of Trump’s level of support and it was 46.1% of the voting population, less than Mitt Romney and about the same as John McCain had in their elections. And, if you ignore undecideds (who split roughly equally between Trump and Clinton), his vote total was roughly equal to his final polling average. In 2016, there was no significant block of Trump support hidden from pollsters.
Clinton won in 1992 with 43% In 1996 Clinton 45% to dole 43%

Either of those would lose to 46% popularity.

In 1992, however, Clinton won by an eyelash, with both candidates taking 43%. Perot won 13% of the vote. Kentucky, 8 electoral votes: In 1988, Bush won by 56% to 44% in Kentucky. In 1996, Clinton barely defeated Dole, 45% to 44%, with Perot taking 8%.

Again the foolish go by the popular vote as the metric.

Trump's popularity is about the same today as 2016. With those numbers alone, given the same electoral results, he'll win again.

Bottom line to this subject at this stage of the process 16 months before the election, Polls mean nothing.
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