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Polls Discuss Rasmussen Explains Methodology Of Poll That Has Trump At 51 Percent Approval at the General Forum; Originally Posted by ShivaTD I typically use the tried and proven way to obtain the optimal interpretative result when there ...

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Old 04-24-2018, 11:01 AM
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Default Re: Rasmussen Explains Methodology Of Poll That Has Trump At 51 Percent Approval

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Originally Posted by ShivaTD View Post
I typically use the tried and proven way to obtain the optimal interpretative result when there are numerous sources measuring the same thing and it's based upon the same methodologies used where a panel of judges scores a competition event. Either the average (or total) score is used or, in many cases, the top and bottom scores are dropped and the rest of the scores are then averaged or totaled. Personally I prefer dropping the top and bottom scores that can be reflective of bias in the scoring and then averaging the rest of the scores. If you go with the top or bottom score then you're almost always walking into a "bias trap" if there's a significant difference between it and the other polls.
Agreed.
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Old 04-24-2018, 11:15 AM
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Default Re: Rasmussen Explains Methodology Of Poll That Has Trump At 51 Percent Approval

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Originally Posted by ShivaTD View Post
According to your link to Real Clear Politics the only Electoral College prediction was by Real Clear Politics and it predicted that Clinton/Kaine would receive 203 Electoral College votes and Donald Trump/Pence would receive 164 leaving 171 Electoral College votes unaccounted for. Neither candidate was predicted to win based upon the Real Clear Politics Electoral College analysis prior to the election because neither candidate has enough Electoral College votes to win.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

All of the other polls were popular vote polls, including the Rasmussen Reports polling data but I do stand corrected. Even Rasmussen predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote. It was the IBD/TIPP Tracking poll that predicted Donald Trump would win the popular vote. For those polls that predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote I believe the actual results fell within the statistical probable error of the poll that can typically be up to +/- 4% based upon the sample size.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html
Of course, polling of the popular vote--which Hillary Clinton did, indeed, win--was quite unnecessary: Two of the last five presidential elections (and two of the last three won by Republicans) have been taken by the loser of the popular vote.

But if the one poll that did track the electoral vote had Hillary ahead, 203 to 164, that would mean that only another 67 electoral votes--or less than 39.2 percent--would have been needed for victory.

My guess is that most polls did not count upon Hillary's losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin...
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