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Polls Discuss *** Trump approval rating now up to 50% at the General Forum; Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports...

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Old 02-23-2018, 11:20 AM
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Lightbulb !!! Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:36 AM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

And yet in the same universe:

Quinnipiac poll: Trump's approval rating slides | TheHill (37-58)

I prefer sticking with an aggregate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:38 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

The two post above are a perfect example of why polls are not worth the time it takes to read them.
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:48 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
The two post above are a perfect example of why polls are not worth the time it takes to read them.
Actually, I agree. But since a lot of the news media seem to be obsessed getting to report low poll #s with Trump, I thought I'd present the other side. In reality the Trump phenomenon should have taught everyone that the mold has been broken when it comes to him and polls. His very election destroyed the credibility of political polling.
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:37 AM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Shoe View Post
His very election destroyed the credibility of political polling.
Lol no it didn't.

The national polls had Hillary ahead, and she did win the popular vote.

State polls for the most part were within the margin of error. It was just many of the swing states were seriously that close according to polls when we hit election day.

And on top of the above, Trump had momentum going into election day, thanks in part to the FBI announcing it was looking into Hillary's emails again just a few days prior. That was enough to change course.

The notion that Trump somehow defied polls just isn't true. It does though make for a convenient excuse when polling doesnt go the way his followers want.
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Old 02-25-2018, 03:09 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
The national polls had Hillary ahead, and she did win the popular vote.
You might want to ask President Gore just how much the popular vote matters. (By the way, if "national polls" had Hillary ahead, was it merely in the popular vote? If so, these polls were entirely irrelevant, at best; and misleading, at worst,)

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
State polls for the most part were within the margin of error. It was just many of the swing states were seriously that close according to polls when we hit election day.
Prior to Election Day 2016, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were considered to be blue states--not "swing" states.

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The notion that Trump somehow defied polls just isn't true. It does though make for a convenient excuse when polling doesnt go the way his followers want.
There is, of course, such a thing as the a priori fallacy; this, apparently, is that to which you are referring.

But I do think that Donald Trump (and his followers) have a reasonable argument, if the methodology of any given poll is questionable.

If it is not, then the poll will probably be accurate--approximately, anyway.
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Old 02-25-2018, 04:27 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
It was just many of the swing states were seriously that close according to polls when we hit election day.
The New York Times gave Hillary a 93% chance to win Wisconsin...

Pennsylvania?...89%

Michigan?...94%

Before the election, the Left had these states as "In Hillary's back pantsuit pocket"...

It wasn't until she lost all three tat the Left started saying "We'll call them `swing states` NOW!!!!"...
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Old 02-25-2018, 05:05 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Lol no it didn't.

The national polls had Hillary ahead, and she did win the popular vote.

State polls for the most part were within the margin of error. It was just many of the swing states were seriously that close according to polls when we hit election day.

And on top of the above, Trump had momentum going into election day, thanks in part to the FBI announcing it was looking into Hillary's emails again just a few days prior. That was enough to change course.

The notion that Trump somehow defied polls just isn't true. It does though make for a convenient excuse when polling doesnt go the way his followers want.
Right, the FBI investigation prevented Hillary from campaigning in the so-called blue wall state's afte the Democrat convention.

Oh wait, it was those sneaky Russkies running a few issue ads in California and DC that cost her the election.
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:10 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Trump is doin' well and libs are losin' their freakin' minds.

If you wanna anger libs just show 'em good news.
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Old 02-28-2018, 12:14 PM
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Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
The New York Times gave Hillary a 93% chance to win Wisconsin...

Pennsylvania?...89%

Michigan?...94%

Before the election, the Left had these states as "In Hillary's back pantsuit pocket"...

It wasn't until she lost all three tat the Left started saying "We'll call them `swing states` NOW!!!!"...
Probability estimates aren't polls. Nice try.

Fact is just looking at Pennsylvania, polling was well within the margin of error by election day.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5964.html

It was further out in Michigan, but Trump was gaining ground and the final poll had him up by 2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-6008.html

Wisconsin was the only one of the three that was way off.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5976.html

But there also wasn't a whole lot of polling done just before the day. You can miss a swing in momentum when you don't look.

IOW the myth about the about all the polls being super-off is still a myth.

"Fake news" in your troupe's language I believe.
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