Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > General Forum > Polls
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Polls Discuss *** Trump approval rating now up to 50% at the General Forum; Originally Posted by pjohns Prior to Election Day 2016, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were considered to be blue states--not "swing" ...

Reply
 
Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11 (permalink)  
Old 02-28-2018, 01:17 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,508
Thanks: 1,553
Thanked 8,830 Times in 5,626 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Prior to Election Day 2016, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were considered to be blue states--not "swing" states.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were always considered battleground states, they weren't guaranteed to go blue. They were in 2012, and PA was still sometimes referred to as such back in 2008.

Michigan was an interesting case. It was considered a toss-up if you look at polls, but not many people considered it a battleground.
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
  #12 (permalink)  
Old 02-28-2018, 01:24 PM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 53,702
Thanks: 2,117
Thanked 33,420 Times in 19,408 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Probability estimates aren't polls. Nice try.

Fact is just looking at Pennsylvania, polling was well within the margin of error by election day.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5964.html

It was further out in Michigan, but Trump was gaining ground and the final poll had him up by 2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-6008.html

Wisconsin was the only one of the three that was way off.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5976.html

But there also wasn't a whole lot of polling done just before the day. You can miss a swing in momentum when you don't look.

IOW the myth about the about all the polls being super-off is still a myth.

"Fake news" in your troupe's language I believe.
I think we're talking passed each other...

The whole reason these states went for Trump was because Clinton (and the media) TOOK THESE STATES FOR GRANTED...They were NOT swing states...Had Clinton even conducted some rudimentary campaigning in these states, she had a more-than-decent shot at taking them...

How Clinton lost 'blue wall' states of Mich., Pa., Wis.

Quote:
It was Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall” — three Great Lakes battlegrounds that Republicans had banged their heads against for years.

But Donald Trump stormed the blue wall Tuesday, parlaying victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania into the presidency.

Trump did it on a tide of votes from rural and blue-collar whites.

But he was helped by Clinton’s neglect of the region and her failure to fully mobilize her party’s own base, including young voters and African-Americans.

“Donald Trump brought a new calculation, a new way of winning (these states), but part of that was her colossal failure,” said GOP pollster Gene Ulm. “She did not turn out and galvanize the Obama coalition.”

In Wisconsin, where Clinton didn’t make a single stop during the general election campaign, she won voters under 30 by just 4 points. Obama won them by 23 points four years ago. The state voted Republican for the first time since 1984.

“The vote among younger voters dropped off appreciably” for Clinton, said Tom Holbrook, political scientist for the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Clinton’s margin in the ultra-blue city of Milwaukee was 27,000 votes smaller than Obama’s. That was roughly the size of her statewide defeat.

While Clinton may not have put a ton of resources into Wisconsin, her campaign peppered Michigan with visits by her and her surrogates during the final weeks.

Still, in Detroit, she won roughly 50,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012.

“It’s is nothing short of malpractice that her campaign didn’t look at the Electoral College and put substantial resources in states like Michigan and Wisconsin,” says Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. Neither President Obama nor the first lady was dispatched to Wisconsin, either.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were each decided by about one percentage point.
__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to cnredd For This Useful Post:
  #13 (permalink)  
Old 02-28-2018, 05:24 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,508
Thanks: 1,553
Thanked 8,830 Times in 5,626 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
I think we're talking passed each other...

The whole reason these states went for Trump was because Clinton (and the media) TOOK THESE STATES FOR GRANTED...They were NOT swing states...Had Clinton even conducted some rudimentary campaigning in these states, she had a more-than-decent shot at taking them...

How Clinton lost 'blue wall' states of Mich., Pa., Wis.
I will absolutely agree that Hillary did not do enough in the Midwest, all of it. She practically ignored us. The Democrats were looking to pick off places like North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia before they were ripe and let the states they should have had wither and starve. She barely won Minnesota FFS lol.

I think the lesson is there are no blue walls. They lost 1000+ federal and state positions prior to this, their core was rotting and they did little to nothing to stop it.

But I still say the polls weren't as off as people think. We got down to margin of error stuff by election day. The folks that gave Hillary absurd 99% probabilities to win? They were way off the mark.
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)  
Old 02-28-2018, 07:27 PM
foundit66's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: California
Gender: Male
Posts: 25,521
Thanks: 10,080
Thanked 15,233 Times in 9,233 Posts
Post Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
The whole reason these states went for Trump was because Clinton (and the media) TOOK THESE STATES FOR GRANTED...They were NOT swing states...Had Clinton even conducted some rudimentary campaigning in these states, she had a more-than-decent shot at taking them...

Your comment made me laugh at remembering one of my reactions on Nov 8. In 20/20 rear-view vision, it makes me chuckle to remember it.

Before the election day, when I saw she was trying to grab Arizona before the election, I was pissed.
And then when the TV showed the results, I cursed at the TV for the reason you stated above...
__________________
“Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.”
~Abraham Lincoln
Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)  
Old 02-28-2018, 07:46 PM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 53,702
Thanks: 2,117
Thanked 33,420 Times in 19,408 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by foundit66 View Post

Your comment made me laugh at remembering one of my reactions on Nov 8. In 20/20 rear-view vision, it makes me chuckle to remember it.

Before the election day, when I saw she was trying to grab Arizona before the election, I was pissed.
And then when the TV showed the results, I cursed at the TV for the reason you stated above...
Then you should get angry every time Hillary No-Fault comes out and blames sex, race, the polar vortext and the 1985 Chicago Bears on her loss...
__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to cnredd For This Useful Post:
  #16 (permalink)  
Old 02-28-2018, 09:59 PM
Hairy Jello's Avatar
Deplorable
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 22,219
Thanks: 1,858
Thanked 11,886 Times in 7,437 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

I just read someone say PA was a battleground state....

__________________

Not an accurate representation of a white person.
Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)  
Old 03-01-2018, 04:03 PM
foundit66's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: California
Gender: Male
Posts: 25,521
Thanks: 10,080
Thanked 15,233 Times in 9,233 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
Then you should get angry every time Hillary No-Fault comes out and blames sex, race, the polar vortext and the 1985 Chicago Bears on her loss...
I do, but I also ignore her.
Her excuses provide no impact for anything for me. She should be treated as yesterday's news.
__________________
“Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.”
~Abraham Lincoln
Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)  
Old 03-03-2018, 11:54 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,508
Thanks: 1,553
Thanked 8,830 Times in 5,626 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hairy Jello View Post
I just read someone say PA was a battleground state....
Because it was. Where did you get it wasn't?
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)  
Old 03-04-2018, 10:34 AM
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,432
Thanks: 8,891
Thanked 7,268 Times in 4,396 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by foundit66 View Post
I do, but I also ignore her.
Her excuses provide no impact for anything for me. She should be treated as yesterday's news.
Saw something the other day that Hillary is planning to announce her candidacy today. Please O Please let it be true.
Reply With Quote
  #20 (permalink)  
Old 03-05-2018, 05:53 PM
Dog Man's Avatar
Down Boy!
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Southern Nevada
Gender: Male
Posts: 10,523
Thanks: 3,836
Thanked 4,640 Times in 3,245 Posts
Default Re: *** Trump approval rating now up to 50%

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
Saw something the other day that Hillary is planning to announce her candidacy today. Please O Please let it be true.
So she will have the next 2 1/2 years to bash Trump in order to claim her throne?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
50%, approval, hit, just, now, rating, trump

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0