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Polls Discuss Battle for the Senate at the General Forum; RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate *******currently Dem********** Rep*********Toss ups 45************ 43 *********12 Battle for Senate ...

Poll: Will Republicans take the Senate in 2012?
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Will Republicans take the Senate in 2012?

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-18-2012, 02:53 PM
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Default Battle for the Senate

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate
*******currently


Dem********** Rep*********Toss ups
45************ 43 *********12



Battle for Senate control rests in a few states
Quote:
Like Warren in Massachusetts, Democrats in Virginia and Wisconsin are narrowly breaking away from Republicans in recent polls, aided by a positive Obama effect in the three states.

In Virginia, former governor Tim Kaine has led former GOP senator George Allen in every poll taken since mid-September by one to eight points. Virginia is a presidential battleground where Obama had been leading Romney until the first presidential debate. Romney has since tightened the race, but Kaine has maintained his advantage.

While Republicans had hoped the addition of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket would make his home state more competitive, Obama maintains an advantage there, where Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin has taken the lead over former governor Tommy Thompson, who was bruised in a combative GOP primary.

Republicans, who are trying to hold onto their seat in Massachusetts, see Virginia and Wisconsin as pickup opportunities because both seats are held by Democrats. If all three are in Democratic hands in November, the chances wither for a Republican takeover.

Democrats have also been able to make surprisingly competitive bids in North Dakota and Indiana. In North Dakota, former state attorney general Heidi Heitkamp is within single digits of GOP Rep. Rick Berg in a state that has been largely inoculated by the economic downturn and unemployment is just 3%. "Really no one gave us a chance in North Dakota until Heidi got in that race," said Guy Cecil, the executive director of the Senate Democrats' campaign operation. "It seems to be really resistant to what's happening in the presidential election."

Polls show Obama far behind in North Dakota. Indiana looks like a red state this year, but Democrats are hoping conservative Richard Mourdock, who ousted six-term Sen. Richard Lugar in Indiana's GOP primary in May, will prove too far right for the state. Missteps by Mourdock and an aggressive ad strategy by Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly has upgraded this race by non-partisan election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report, to a tossup.

Republicans also appear to be walking away from New Mexico — the party recently pulled reserved ad time from the airwaves — where they had high hopes for former GOP representative Heather Wilson. She has failed to close the gap against Rep. Martin Heinrich in a state that's also leaning toward Obama.

Similarly, Republicans eyed an upset in Obama's native Hawaii where former GOP governor Linda Lingle has run a strong campaign but may not have enough cross-ballot appeal to win in a state where Obama has a very strong edge.

Efforts to pick up Democratic seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida likewise seem to be falling short, as Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Bill Nelson of Florida are now favored for re-election in polls and by election forecasters.
So at present the plan to take the senate away from Democrats is failing.
Post your Senate polls or opinions here.
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Old 10-18-2012, 04:35 PM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

Hardly failing. I'd say we are getting ready to enter an admin. with both houses and the Oval Office in Rep. control. With an improving economy (helped even further by rolling back huge chunks of the Stim. Package and Obamacare) I believe that the next midterm election will further solidify this trend. Too many people saw the Dems. fail over the last 6 years for them to trust them as they have in the past. The only real point of debate is whether the 2014 elections will give the Reps. a strong enough majority to push past the obstructionism that you can bet the Dems. will be 100% vested in. One of my greatest hopes for this nation is that the People are able to see just how poor a job the Dems. did when they had nearly full control of the gov't. I'd love to see what true conservatives could do with the same situation. Of course that would mean that about 80% of the Reps. would have to be replaced with conservatives instead of moderate liberals.
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Old 10-18-2012, 04:51 PM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

well I disagree that Rs will take the senate and with your premise that dems didnt have blockage even with a majority. republicans abused the rules to keep a lot of things from coming to the floor till it was an up or down vote which hurt our country mightily. i for one wanted republicans to debate and amend with vigorous discourse the affordable care act, as i think they could have added much to that legislation's final outcome.

I do assert that dems were weak and not dirty enough.
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Old 10-18-2012, 09:13 PM
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Default Battle for the Senate

[moderator mode]
Attempting to Merge a post into thread
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Old 10-19-2012, 12:52 AM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

Unfortunatly, I think the Republicans fall 1 short.
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:25 AM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

I have no confidence on this one, but I'm crossing my fingers for Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Missouri. A Republican win in any of those will piss all the right people off, and give me a chuckle.

And hey, don't laugh about Akin's chances in Missouri. A juicy scandal is breaking that damns McCaskill. MO just might be willing to look past Akin's 6 seconds of infamy. The difference between the two in the polls is narrowing.

Good thread idea though. I want to read what others think about the Senate race. It's tricky. Thanks Salty.
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:35 AM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

If you want to know what the McCaskill scandal is about click the listen live link here at 1 PM Eastern. It's going to break big-time.

FM NewsTalk 97.1 - St. Louis Where To Listen
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Old 10-19-2012, 05:22 AM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

Might be some Republican hope in Nevada as well.

Quote:
Two new polls have incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) pulling away from embattled Rep. Shelley Berkeley (D-NV) in their Senate race. According to a poll from SurveyUSA, Heller leads 46-40; according to Rasmussen, Heller leads 50-43. The margin of the lead, of course, is approximately the same in the two polls. Berkeley’s campaign has cratered over the past several months; the implosion began with revelations reported at Breitbart News about her corrupt attempts to direct money to her husband’s nephrology center.
Republican Heller Pulling Away From Berkeley in Nevada Senate Race
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Old 10-25-2012, 08:43 PM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

Quote:
Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
Unfortunatly, I think the Republicans fall 1 short.
They may but the Dems have a huge number of Senator's in red states coming up for election next round. We can get a couple to vote our way.
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Old 10-26-2012, 08:48 AM
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Default Re: Battle for the Senate

Quote:
Originally Posted by saltwn View Post
well I disagree that Rs will take the senate and with your premise that dems didnt have blockage even with a majority. republicans abused the rules to keep a lot of things from coming to the floor till it was an up or down vote which hurt our country mightily. i for one wanted republicans to debate and amend with vigorous discourse the affordable care act, as i think they could have added much to that legislation's final outcome.

I do assert that dems were weak and not dirty enough.
Republicans abused the rules of Congress for the Obamacare bill. Oh, you must mean things like replacing the text of a veterans benefits bill with the Obamacare bill or classifying it as a reconciliation bill or burying $120 billion in spending in the bill or putting together the final bill in the leadership's office, pass it to find out all the good things inside. Oh wait, that was Democrats who abused these rules.
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