The OP advances the idea that Democrat Senate hopefuls will ride Obama's coattails to victory yet with the exception of Warren they have been running away from Obama as toxic to their campaigns. The last time Obama visited Missouri McCaskill found she had pressing business elsewhere.

If you take just the 10 Toss Up states that RCP has on there map The Republicans would need 8 of those 10 to secure the majority. The Democrats need 4 of the 10 to secure the majority.


Arizona..
Jeff Flake (R) vs. Richard Carmona (D)
Rcp Has flake with a very small Average lead of 0.7 so according to RCP this could go either way..
Nate Silver has Flake with a polling average of 1.4 with a 69% chance of winning.
Arizona most likely going to the Republicans.


Connecticut.

Chris Murphy (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)
Rcp has Murphy ahead in the average Polling +3.1.. And he has led in 16 of the 21 polls on the state with one tie and McMahon leading in the other three..
Nate Silver has Murphy with a polling average lead of 2.4 and a 78% chance of Winning..
Connecticut likely going to the Democrats.

Indiana.

Richard Mourdock (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)
There have only been 4 polls put up at RCP on this race with Mourdock leading in 2, Donnelly leading in 1, and one tie.Not enough information to form a average.
Nate Silver has Mourdock ahead in the Polling +3.2 with a 64% chance of winning.
All this information was recorded before Mourdocks retarded statment concerning Rape and Abortion so this one could go either way. We'll see when the next round of polling comes out.


Massachusetts..
Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Scott Brown (R)
Rcp has Brown ahead in the Polls With a Average of 5.7 points.I'm not sure why they keep this a toss up because it's way outside the normal margin of error.
Nate Silver has Warren ahead in the polling average by 4.3 points.. with a 89% chance of winning.
Massachusetts apparently going back to the Democrats...


Missouri..
Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)
Rcp has McCaskill ahead in the polling average by +5.0 points. Akin has led in exactly one poll since his retarded remarks concerning rape.
Nate Silver has McCaskill ahead in the polling by 4.4 points with a 87% chance of winning.
Mizzou goes blue...


Montana..
Denny Rehberg (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)
Rcp has Rehberg ahead +0.3.. Not a huge lead by anyones standard.. However..
Nate Silver has Tester ahead in the polling average +1.2 points.. But considering he doesn't base his predictions on just the polling average he has Rehberg with a 57% chance of winning to a 43% chance for Tester. This is a true toss up.. But Considering Nate Silvers record for Predicting Senate races I would have to give this on to the Republicans..
Montana goes Red.


Nevada.
Dean Heller (R) vs Shelley Berkley (D)
Rcp has Heller ahead in the polls +3.5 points. No Surprise...
Nate Silver has a bigger lead for Heller at +4.5 and a 74% chance of Winning in the Forecast.
Nevada likely goes Republican.


North Dakota..
Rick Berg (R) vs Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Berg has a +5.0 lead in the Rcp averages.. and has led by big margins in practically every poll of the state.
Nate Silver gives him a smaller lead in polling at +0.1 but gives him a 82% chance of winning in the forecast model. History proves when Nate Silver gives a 60% plus chance of Victory you can take it to the bank..
North Dakota goes Republican..


Virginia..
Tim Kaine (D) vs George Allen (R)
Kaine holds a small lead in the rcp average of +1.0 and this race has been close throughout .
Nate Silver gives Kaine a larger lead of +3.0 with a 82% chance of Winning.
Best estimate ...
Virginia Goes Democrat.


Wisconsin..
Tammy Baldwin (D) vs Tommy Thompson (R)
Rcp gives Baldwin a small lead in the average of +0.8 points.
Nate Silver gives Baldwin a +3.0 lead with a 85% chance of winning .
Wisconsin most likely going Democrat..


So that's 5 states that go Democrat plus the possibility of a 6th if Indiana suddenly goes south because of Mourdocks statements. Either way that puts the Republicans short of the 8 they need to take the Majority.

The Senate Remains in control of the Democrats.... and with the White House and a smaller Majority of Republicans in the House just maybe we can finally get back on track.....

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Earlier I said the Republicans will fall one short, I was counting one short of 50, I should have said 2 short of a majority. My predictions differ from yours above in Mass. Senator Brown keeps that seat.

If one of the other Republicans can pull off an upset that puts it at 50-50, with a VP Ryan tie breaker the country can breath a sigh of relief.

Brown is going to lose his seat, that is a heavy Democratic State and the Seat held by Democrat Teddy Kennedy for more than 40 years, Brown won in a special election during a mid term year when turn out is traditionally low. Warren holds at least a 5 point lead in the polls and is only getting stronger.

Ryan will never see the Vice Presidency because Obama is going to Win the election. Those same predictions that have the Senate going Democrat say that Obama has a 72% chance of winning.. which according to history means you can pretty much count it as done....

Then we can all breath a sigh of relief when we know Willard is not destroying the Middle class or taking us into another War.

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Actually, Republicans win at 50-50 without the VP...
Liberman's retiring, but the only Socialist in the Senate (that ADMITS to being a Socialist) is Independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, so in reality, it would be 50R-49D-1I...

That's HUUUUGE because that would give Republicans the leadership, and leadership is where WHAT comes to the floor is decided...

You know those 30+ jobs bills passed by the House but Reid is blocking for his Master?...With 50 Republicans, whoever the Republican would select as Senate leader (McConnell?) would send these bills to the floor on a high-speed conveyer belt...

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"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd

While I give almost no credibility to polls, your posts seem to contradict each other.

We'll see, I hope your wrong. This country can ill afford four more years of a poor leader who surrounds himself with imbecils, negotiates with terrorists, alienates our allies, drives up debt while increasing taxes, won't secure our borders, got us involved in a war in Libia so the terrorist could take over, the list goes on and on.

Excellent point, I hadn't factored in Sanders.

You mean those 30 bills that had nothing to do with jobs that the Republicans forced through knowing they would never get voted on so they could have a symbolic talking point for the upcoming election cycle?...

Those same 30 bills that would be voted down by the Same Senate that you propose would bring them to the floor?...

It doesn't matter who the leadership comes from if they don't hold the Majority vote they can't get anything passed..

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All unfounded, baseless republican talking points with no evidence to back them up...

We're not in a War in Libya.. Obama hasn't raised taxes, Obama hasn't driven up the debt , the borders are more secure now than they were under Bush, And he doesn't negotiate with terrorists he kills them... You're list is wrong.

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Are you factoring in Republican dirty tricks like voter suppression?