Bolton sheds light on why Putin didn’t invade Ukraine under Trump

About a week ago, Donald Trump was apparently feeling a bit defense after his praise for Vladimir Putin created some political troubles for him. It led him to release a ridiculous written statement in which he suggested he was responsible for rescuing NATO.

This is, as we discussed soon after, utterly bonkers: The only thing threatening NATO’s existence was Trump himself, who not only repeatedly disparaged the alliance, but who, on several occasions, expressed an interest in abandoning NATO altogether. By all accounts, it was a plan he intended to follow through on in a second term.

It was against this backdrop that John Bolton, who served as the White House national security adviser during the former president’s term, told The Washington Post late last week that he believes Trump would’ve withdrawn the United States from the NATO alliance in a second term. That wasn’t a surprising observation, but take of note its possible relevance:

Let’s take a step back to consider how a quote like this one ties into the larger context.

For Trump and his allies, it’s a point of great pride that Putin didn’t invade any of his neighbors during the Republican’s term in the White House. The Russian leader launched offenses against bordering countries in 2008, 2014, and 2022, but between January 2017 and January 2021, Putin showed restraint.

This, we’ve been told to believe, is clear proof of ... something.

The standard line from the right is built on two pillars. The first is the idea that Trump was so strong and unpredictable, the Russian authoritarian was simply too afraid to provoke the Republican. The second is the belief that when the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, it signaled to Moscow that we’re weak and indifferent to international military offenses.

The former argument is so plainly ridiculous, it’s surprising Republicans would even peddle it. Trump spent four years going to almost comical lengths to make Putin happy, to the point that the then-American president’s own director of national intelligence later admitted he feared Trump had been compromised by the Kremlin.

As for the Afghanistan claim — a favorite of a great many leading Republicans — it isn’t much better. Putin’s preoccupation with Ukraine goes back a lot further than last summer. Indeed, there’s evidence that Russia began building up military forces around the Ukrainian border months before U.S. forces left Kabul.

The idea that Putin would’ve altered his yearslong ambitions in Ukraine if only President Biden had agreed to keep thousands of American troops in Afghanistan is plainly at odds with everything we know about recent events. (What’s more, if the right were serious about this line of rhetorical attack, it might lead to some awkward questions about the geopolitical effects of Trump’s February 2020 agreement with the Taliban to end the decades’ long war. Did this signal weakness to Moscow?)

So, if the standard Republican explanation is unserious, what’s the actual reason?

In a piece that generated an unusual amount of hate mail, I recently made the case that Putin showed restraint during the Trump era because the Russian authoritarian saw no need to mess with a good thing. The basic idea — which I was glad to see others endorse — is that Trump’s actions were in line with Moscow’s goals, and an invasion of Ukraine risked upsetting the balance.

Putin wanted to undermine the NATO alliance, and Trump undermined the NATO alliance. Putin wanted to weaken the E.U., and Trump made little effort to express his disdain for the E.U. Putin wanted to help authoritarians, and Trump cozied up to authoritarians. Putin wanted to hurt Ukraine, and Trump launched an extortion scheme that threatened to hurt Ukraine. Putin wanted to weaken the U.S. political system, and Trump was unnervingly aggressive in trying to weaken the U.S. political system.

All of which is to say, why would Putin rock the boat when Trump was already steering it in the Kremlin’s preferred direction?

But Bolton has presented a related explanation that’s quite credible: Putin saw an American president moving in a direction Moscow liked, and the Russian leader was waiting for Trump to finish the job.

Postscript: In case this isn't obvious, this should not be seen as any kind of endorsement of Bolton's hyper-hawkish worldview, which I've been harshly critical of on many occasions over many years.

Rather, Bolton's perspective on stories like these matters precisely because of his influential role on Team Trump.

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Nonsense.

You never supported a word Bolten spoke until Trump fired him. Now he speaks gospel?

Matt Dillion was once asked why the misbehaving cowboy, who threatened to draw, backed down. The Marshall responded, because that cowboy knew he didn't have the stomach to kill but, he did know that Matt Dillion would kill him.

Putin didn't move on the Ukraine for a very simple reason. President Trump would do what it would take to stop him. And Putin damn well knew it.

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I am going to hang a Batman Costume in my closet. .......... Just to screw with myself when I get alzheimer's.
sola gratia, sola fide, sola scriptura.

I AM NOT A REPUBLICAN, I AM A FREEMAN, THE DEMOCRATS WORST NIGHTMARE

i didnt like bolton's policies /his outlook, if you'll go back and read a bit. he loves the thought of war but he knows what went on. people fault him for not doing something then instead of writing about it later.
trump did everything putin wanted. he would have spread and promoted russian propaganda like he did before. plus we wouldn't be in nato. if not for trump's shenanigans ukraine might already be a member too.

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Re opening post--

It is too early for this liberal SHlT!

You obviously have not read anything valid lately about NATO and the Ukraine.

The fact, and it is a fact, that a Biden family member receives cash payments from Ukraine is not a legitimate reason for them to be a NATO member.

Trump actually improved and strengthened NATO. Telling us what YOU believe Trump would have done is not based on any actual event or fact. Just your mendacity. To ever be taken seriously,,,; You're gonna have to do better.

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I am going to hang a Batman Costume in my closet. .......... Just to screw with myself when I get alzheimer's.
sola gratia, sola fide, sola scriptura.

I AM NOT A REPUBLICAN, I AM A FREEMAN, THE DEMOCRATS WORST NIGHTMARE

Whilst I don agree with this guy's lefty approach, he does make a lot of sense of the current crisis he predicted.

https://newcoldwar.org/why-is-ukrain...n-mearsheimer/

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I am going to hang a Batman Costume in my closet. .......... Just to screw with myself when I get alzheimer's.
sola gratia, sola fide, sola scriptura.

I AM NOT A REPUBLICAN, I AM A FREEMAN, THE DEMOCRATS WORST NIGHTMARE

The OP is Rachael Madcow's insane rant over Bolton's tell all book. Her central theme is the long disproven narrative that Trump helped advance Putin's agenda. She makes the blatantly false claim Trump weakened NATO.

This article was on the 2019 visit by the Secretary General to the Trump WH. The $100 billion in extra defense spending by NATO allies has nearly doubled since then. But an MSNBC commentator knows far more than the Secretary General of NATO, right?

In addition to strengthening NATO, Trump reversed the Obama/Biden policy banning sending weapons to the Ukrainian government. Kim Jung Biden reinstated it. But Trump is responsible for weakening the Ukraine by providing them with weapons. Giving them the means to kill Russian invaders must have pleased Putin.

The simple truth is Putin didn't invade during the Trump administration because he knew there would be a far heavier cost than he was willing to pay. The same calculation under Biden’s incompetent excuse for leadership yielded an acceptable result for invading.

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If Democrats were confident their nominee actually received more than 80 million votes they wouldn't have more troops occupying Washington, DC than Lincoln had defending the city during the Civil War. Not Joe Biden, Kim Jung Biden.

Is anyone else aware that Ukraine is the ancestral home of the Cossacks. Some of the most feared, fierce and brutal fighting men in history.

Russia used to hire them to protect their borders with Poland and Turkey. It explains why the Ukrainians are doing so well resisting a larger and better equipped invader.

Obama and Biden was willing to sent them blankets. Trump wanted them to have real arms, munitions and technology. Biden said NO?

Imagine what they could do with real weapons.

Ina little over a year we went from $2.50 per gallon gas to more than $5.00. And from the Abram Accords to nuclear readiness for WWIII.

Nancy Pelosi, who's part in in power of Congress and the White House, says it is the fault of the GOP. I say it is the fault of American voters on November 4, 2020.

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I am going to hang a Batman Costume in my closet. .......... Just to screw with myself when I get alzheimer's.
sola gratia, sola fide, sola scriptura.

I AM NOT A REPUBLICAN, I AM A FREEMAN, THE DEMOCRATS WORST NIGHTMARE

Bolton a month or so ago spewed some nonsense on how if Trump won a second term then the Russians would already be in Kiev. I guess when people who weren't die hard foam at the mouth Trump derangement sufferers started questioning the logic of that due to the fact the Russians didn't do shit until Biden became president he concocted some horse shit excuse as to why the Russians didn't do anything until Biden became president.

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"There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag… We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language… and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”—Theodore Roosevelt

I think the oil companies are trying to manipulate voters into voting for more oil friendly politicians. Because it seems that when democrats are president the price of gas goes dramatically up and goes dramatically down when republicans are president. I can remember when Obama was president the price of gas was around four dollars and that seeing two dollars a gallon was never going to happen again.

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"There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag… We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language… and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”—Theodore Roosevelt