Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > General Forum > Opinions & Editorials
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Opinions & Editorials Discuss Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020 at the General Forum; In case anyone is unfamiliar with Larry Sabato, let me just say that he is a political analyst--much in the ...

Reply
 
Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2019, 04:30 PM
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Tennessee
Gender: Male
Posts: 10,734
Thanks: 13,519
Thanked 4,858 Times in 3,111 Posts
Default Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

In case anyone is unfamiliar with Larry Sabato, let me just say that he is a political analyst--much in the mold of Charlie Cook, Scott Rasmussen, and Stu Rothenberg.

I receive his newsletter every week.

It is my understanding that, in his personal life, he leans center-left. But he never allows his personal opinions to show through, in his newsletter. He is a serious analyst--not a partisan hack.

Anyway, in his most recent newsletter, he suggests that the GOP is likely to retain the Senate in 2020--despite the fact that almost twice as many Republican seats as Democratic seats are up for re-election--and he goes into the reasons as to why that is the case.

Here is a link to his newsletter: https://connect.xfinity.com/appsuite...default0/INBOX

Comments?
__________________
"In his second inaugural address, [Franklin D.] Roosevelt sought 'unimagined power' to enforce the 'proper subordination' of private power to public power. He got it…"—George Will, July 8, 2007
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2019, 04:49 PM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 56,097
Thanks: 2,324
Thanked 37,020 Times in 20,966 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

Thanks for this...I knew Republicans were going to keep the Senate in 2018, but didn't give any thought to 2020...

Too early to tell, but I don't see a wave either way...yet...
__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2019, 08:20 PM
mr wonder's Avatar
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Virginia
Gender: Male
Posts: 13,480
Thanks: 11,489
Thanked 7,669 Times in 5,082 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
In case anyone is unfamiliar with Larry Sabato, let me just say that he is a political analyst--much in the mold of Charlie Cook, Scott Rasmussen, and Stu Rothenberg.

I receive his newsletter every week.

It is my understanding that, in his personal life, he leans center-left. But he never allows his personal opinions to show through, in his newsletter. He is a serious analyst--not a partisan hack.

Anyway, in his most recent newsletter, he suggests that the GOP is likely to retain the Senate in 2020--despite the fact that almost twice as many Republican seats as Democratic seats are up for re-election--and he goes into the reasons as to why that is the case.

Here is a link to his newsletter: https://connect.xfinity.com/appsuite...default0/INBOX

Comments?
link is wrong...
ask me to sign in to xfinity whatever that is
__________________
Hope is the dream of the waking man.
Aristotle

For there is hope of a tree, if it be cut down, that it will sprout again, and that the tender branch thereof will not cease.
Job 14:6-8
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2019, 10:51 PM
FrancSevin's Avatar
Runs with scissors
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: St Louis MO
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,998
Thanks: 10,377
Thanked 14,013 Times in 7,628 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

This may not be the same story but here's a useful link
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.28dd452f3394
__________________
I am going to hang a Batman Costume in my closet. .......... Just to screw with myself when I get alzheimer's.
sola gratia, sola fide, sola scriptura.

I AM NOT A REPUBLICAN, I AM A FREEMAN, THE DEMOCRATS WORST NIGHTMARE
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to FrancSevin For This Useful Post:
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 05-27-2019, 11:51 AM
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Tennessee
Gender: Male
Posts: 10,734
Thanks: 13,519
Thanked 4,858 Times in 3,111 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by mr wonder View Post
link is wrong...
ask me to sign in to xfinity whatever that is
You are correct. (As the kids nowadays say: My bad.)

Here is the correct link: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
__________________
"In his second inaugural address, [Franklin D.] Roosevelt sought 'unimagined power' to enforce the 'proper subordination' of private power to public power. He got it…"—George Will, July 8, 2007
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to pjohns For This Useful Post:
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 05-27-2019, 03:51 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,062
Thanks: 1,586
Thanked 9,178 Times in 5,873 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

While it does look like a tough year for Senate Republicans on the surface, a lot of those seats up for election are in pretty safe territory. Kinda similar to 2018's map for the Democrats, a lot of seats they were defending, but many in solid blue territory.

They'll probably lose Colorado. Cory Gardner isn't liked, and the state is trending bluer. Hillary won it in 2016, and the Dems won the Senate and Governor's races pretty handily. Likely D.

Democrats will likely lose in Alabama. Trump has high approval ratings, and even a 2nd Roy Moore run probably won't hurt them much given it'll be presidential turnout. Sabato has it at a tossup, but I just don't see it. Likely R.

Arizona has a good chance go blue. They're iffy on Trump, and the Dems have astronaut Mark Kelly in their corner, whereas Republicans have Martha McSally who lost to Kyrsten Sinema just last year. Only reason she's there is to fill a vacancy left when John McCain died. Tilt D.

Next most likely would be North Carolina. Thom Tillis has awful approval ratings, and Trump is about even there himself. I can see it narrowly going for Trump and whomever the Dem nominee is provided they don't f-ck that up. Tilt D.

Next would be Iowa, a slight Rephblican tilt. Trump's approval is in the negatives there despite a solid win in 2016, but Joni Ernst is doing alright. It would have to take both a good Senate and presidential candidate to flip it back blue, but it's slightly red at the moment. Tilt R.

Maine's just going to be a wild card given Susan Collins's incumbency, Trump's strong unpopularity there, and their ranked-choice voting. She's won her previous elections with strong majorities. Dems woukd have to work pretty hard regardless of the environment. Tilt R.

I think what'll surprise a lot of people is Texas. The 2018 Senate race was closer than expected, and John Cornyn just doesn't have the same kind of ferverous support Ted Cruz does down there. Texas has been inching bluer in recent cycles, and Trump's popularity is not as strong in the state as people think. If MJ Hegar works as hard as Beto O'Rourke did, she could pull off an upset. Tilt R regardless.
__________________
"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side." - Donald Trump, on pedophile Jeff Epstein.
Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 05-27-2019, 06:09 PM
Conservative Sage
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 18,900
Thanks: 12,393
Thanked 13,365 Times in 7,787 Posts
Send a message via ICQ to AZRWinger
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
While it does look like a tough year for Senate Republicans on the surface, a lot of those seats up for election are in pretty safe territory. Kinda similar to 2018's map for the Democrats, a lot of seats they were defending, but many in solid blue territory.

They'll probably lose Colorado. Cory Gardner isn't liked, and the state is trending bluer. Hillary won it in 2016, and the Dems won the Senate and Governor's races pretty handily. Likely D.

Democrats will likely lose in Alabama. Trump has high approval ratings, and even a 2nd Roy Moore run probably won't hurt them much given it'll be presidential turnout. Sabato has it at a tossup, but I just don't see it. Likely R.

Arizona has a good chance go blue. They're iffy on Trump, and the Dems have astronaut Mark Kelly in their corner, whereas Republicans have Martha McSally who lost to Kyrsten Sinema just last year. Only reason she's there is to fill a vacancy left when John McCain died. Tilt D.

Next most likely would be North Carolina. Thom Tillis has awful approval ratings, and Trump is about even there himself. I can see it narrowly going for Trump and whomever the Dem nominee is provided they don't f-ck that up. Tilt D.

Next would be Iowa, a slight Rephblican tilt. Trump's approval is in the negatives there despite a solid win in 2016, but Joni Ernst is doing alright. It would have to take both a good Senate and presidential candidate to flip it back blue, but it's slightly red at the moment. Tilt R.

Maine's just going to be a wild card given Susan Collins's incumbency, Trump's strong unpopularity there, and their ranked-choice voting. She's won her previous elections with strong majorities. Dems woukd have to work pretty hard regardless of the environment. Tilt R.

I think what'll surprise a lot of people is Texas. The 2018 Senate race was closer than expected, and John Cornyn just doesn't have the same kind of ferverous support Ted Cruz does down there. Texas has been inching bluer in recent cycles, and Trump's popularity is not as strong in the state as people think. If MJ Hegar works as hard as Beto O'Rourke did, she could pull off an upset. Tilt R regardless.
Mark Kelly has a terrible record of anti second amendment positions. That's not popular in AZ. Kirsten Sinema narrowly won her Senate seat by positioning herself as a bipartisan problem solver apart from the vicious partisan hatred required of national Democrats. She stood out prominently from the Democrat brides of the KKK at the SOTUS dressed in ink and applauding Trump. Mark Kelly isn't going to be able to position himself as the same sort of independent centrist.
__________________
If Democrats were confident their nominee actually received more than 80 million votes they wouldn't have more troops occupying Washington, DC than Lincoln had defending the city during the Civil War. Not Joe Biden, Kim Jung Biden.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to AZRWinger For This Useful Post:
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 05-28-2019, 11:34 AM
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Tennessee
Gender: Male
Posts: 10,734
Thanks: 13,519
Thanked 4,858 Times in 3,111 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
While it does look like a tough year for Senate Republicans on the surface, a lot of those seats up for election are in pretty safe territory. Kinda similar to 2018's map for the Democrats, a lot of seats they were defending, but many in solid blue territory.

They'll probably lose Colorado. Cory Gardner isn't liked, and the state is trending bluer. Hillary won it in 2016, and the Dems won the Senate and Governor's races pretty handily. Likely D.

Democrats will likely lose in Alabama. Trump has high approval ratings, and even a 2nd Roy Moore run probably won't hurt them much given it'll be presidential turnout. Sabato has it at a tossup, but I just don't see it. Likely R.

Arizona has a good chance go blue. They're iffy on Trump, and the Dems have astronaut Mark Kelly in their corner, whereas Republicans have Martha McSally who lost to Kyrsten Sinema just last year. Only reason she's there is to fill a vacancy left when John McCain died. Tilt D.

Next most likely would be North Carolina. Thom Tillis has awful approval ratings, and Trump is about even there himself. I can see it narrowly going for Trump and whomever the Dem nominee is provided they don't f-ck that up. Tilt D.

Next would be Iowa, a slight Rephblican tilt. Trump's approval is in the negatives there despite a solid win in 2016, but Joni Ernst is doing alright. It would have to take both a good Senate and presidential candidate to flip it back blue, but it's slightly red at the moment. Tilt R.

Maine's just going to be a wild card given Susan Collins's incumbency, Trump's strong unpopularity there, and their ranked-choice voting. She's won her previous elections with strong majorities. Dems woukd have to work pretty hard regardless of the environment. Tilt R.

I think what'll surprise a lot of people is Texas. The 2018 Senate race was closer than expected, and John Cornyn just doesn't have the same kind of ferverous support Ted Cruz does down there. Texas has been inching bluer in recent cycles, and Trump's popularity is not as strong in the state as people think. If MJ Hegar works as hard as Beto O'Rourke did, she could pull off an upset. Tilt R regardless.
This is a good, thoughtful analysis.

Nonetheless, I would differ about a few matters.

Since--as Sabato points out--there is not much ticket-splitting nowadays, it seems implausible that Trump might win North Carolina (even narrowly), while the Democratic nominee for the Senate also won it. Probably either the Democrats or the Republicans would win North Carolina in both the presidential and the senatorial races.

It is true that Martha McSally is presently in the Senate only as an appointee, to fill the vacancy left by the late John McCain. Still, if she campaign harder than she did last time, she probably has a good chance to win. (It should probably be noted, however, that Arizona has turned from a crimson red state to a purple state; so the trend may help the Democratic nominee.)

And I agree with your conclusions as concerning Colorado and Alabama; but I would call them "leaning," rather than "likely." (This may just be a matter of semantics.)
__________________
"In his second inaugural address, [Franklin D.] Roosevelt sought 'unimagined power' to enforce the 'proper subordination' of private power to public power. He got it…"—George Will, July 8, 2007
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 06-04-2019, 06:03 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,062
Thanks: 1,586
Thanked 9,178 Times in 5,873 Posts
Default Re: Larry Sabato and the Senate in 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by AZRWinger View Post
Mark Kelly has a terrible record of anti second amendment positions. That's not popular in AZ. Kirsten Sinema narrowly won her Senate seat by positioning herself as a bipartisan problem solver apart from the vicious partisan hatred required of national Democrats. She stood out prominently from the Democrat brides of the KKK at the SOTUS dressed in ink and applauding Trump. Mark Kelly isn't going to be able to position himself as the same sort of independent centrist.
His wife was shot in the head, and by some miracle survived. Anyone can understand why he feels however he feels about guns and armed crazies. I don't think his views on the 2nd Amendment are going to hurt him much, unless its something extremely radical.

Also there's more to whether or not a person would generally be regarded as a centrist than just their position on guns.
__________________
"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side." - Donald Trump, on pedophile Jeff Epstein.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
2020, and, larry, sabato, senate, the

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0