A recent University of Colorado poll indicates that Mitt Romney should receive almost 53 percent of the popular vote, and a total of 320 electoral votes--50 more electoral votes than are needed for victory--if historical precedent holds true: University of Colorado Analysis Predicts That Romney Will Win Election | Fox News Insider

It will be interesting to see of this actually occurs...

They don't have the political affiliations of those polled...

As much as I WANT to believe it, I can't consider the poll when they don't tell us the sampling (or oversampling)...

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It's not a poll though. It's a computer model. They feed data like state by state unemployment, and per capta income data into the model then presto.

I've never trusted models as predictive tools myself. Too much GIGO (garbage in garbage out). These guys claim they've "correctly picked the winner of every presidential election since 1980", but big claims are common with modelers, then you double-check them, and you find, well...maybe not so much.

There are new, but old fashioned polling reasons to be optimistic about R & R's chances though.

Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes Hot Air

In fact the only really effective method of computer models as Cassandras I've noticed so far has been don't believe them. I therefore think this election is going to be close. I still think R & R will win though.

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Exactly. They have a poll here in Michigan that gives obama a 7 point advantage in Michigan, but when you look at the sampling they asked 10% more democrats than republicans. And, only 2.8% were independents.

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There's a new one from CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac that looks at three states. It's still over-samples Dems, but...

Poll: Obama lead narrows in key swing states - CBS News

That is encouraging.

Moreover, I am not at all sure that I would describe those polls as showing President Obama with a "lead" in Florida and Wisconsin, as he shows less than 50 percent of the vote in those two states; and the incumbent traditionally gets very little of the Undecided vote, come Election Day...

This one says something too.

Table : August 2012 Missouri poll results : Stltoday

In spite of the Akin controversy (and although Akin himself is a dead duck in the Senatorial) Romney leads Obama 50 to 43 in Missouri.

I certainly hope that is correct.

But the latest Rasmussen poll--the poll that most progressives (and Democrats in general) thoroughly despise--actually shows President Obama at 47 percent, against Mitt Romney's 46 percent, in the state of Missouri: Election 2012: Missouri President - Rasmussen Reports

And, considering that political analyst Larry Sabato had written off the possibility of President Obama's carrying The Show-Me State, just a couple of months ago, the fact that it now appears competitive does not encourage me...