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Old 08-11-2012, 11:11 AM
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Default Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

This is Dick Morris' take on those recent polls showing a widening lead for President Obama over his Republican challenger:

Quote:
1. Obama’s voters don’t want to come out and vote for him. They are only lukewarm and are not people who always vote. Cynical and apathetic, they do not begin to approximate the intensity of the Romney voters or even of the 2008 Obama backers.

2. Black turnout is traditionally 11% of the total vote. In 2008, rose to 14%, providing Obama with more than half of his margin of victory. Current polls suggest a reversion to the pre-2008 turnout level, but polling firms that do not measure voter intention can’t tell that and weight the black vote up to 12, 13, or even 14 percent, padding Obama’s vote artificially.

3. Likewise with Latino vote which was 7% of the vote and grew to 8.5% in 2008. Their votes this time show signs of returning to historic norms

4. Polls of registered voters tend to weight up the Democratic respondents, according their opinions more weight in the poll. That’s because their data usually shows fewer Democrats in their sample than in national registration figures. But, in weighting for party, they obscure the fact that a great many registered Democrats have left the Party, particularly in the past few years, a finding that is obliterated by the weighting.

The fact is that Rasmussen and Gallup both showed drops for Romney about 4-5 days ago when negative coverage of his foreign trip (itself a sign of media bias) tended to dampen his ratings. But both have shown a recovery since. Rasmussen and Gallup poll every day. The other polls are conducted over a period of several days. So the Rasmussen and Gallup data are a few days fresher than the other polls and reflect Romney’s recovery.


And the link: Don’t Believe Poll Propaganda at DickMorris.com
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:28 AM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

This is a list of how bad Dick Morris is at predictions. He is probably the worst pundit there is and he lives off his association with Clinton. That is the reason FOX keeps him around. Not because he is any good at this sort of thing.

•Oct 28: Undecideds Should Break For McCain: "As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance. If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain."


•Oct 21: The Populism Divide: "Then came Obama’s conversation with Joe the Plumber, possibly the decisive moment in the election."


•Oct 14: The Nuts At ACORN Could Cause Obama’s Fall: "At the very least, the negative publicity ACORN will attract will paint Obama as a radical with questionable judgment. At the most, it might cause voters to wonder if he is not himself involved in electoral fraud."


•Sep 16: Candidate and Party: The Obama Deficit: "How odd that Obama, with a world-class personality and an incredibly charismatic speaking style, should be losing the mano-a-mano contest to McCain, who is 25 years older and a foot shorter. But McCain has opened up a decisive lead over Obama, actually using the Democrat’s articulateness against him."


•Sep 9: Obama vs. Obama: "Now that McCain has definitively, and I suspect irreversibly, separated himself from Bush, he has become an acceptable alternative to Obama for voters seeking change...Obama was wrong to invest so much in the Bush-McCain linkage...The Obama campaign doesn’t seem to get that it is running against McCain, not Sarah Palin. They spent the entire Republican convention and the week since attacking the vice presidential candidate. That’s like stabbing the capillaries instead of the arteries. Nobody is going to vote for or against McCain because they want Sarah Palin to be vice president of the United States, or don’t."


•Sep 3: Dems Pounce Too Soon: "If Palin emerges from her [convention] speech in good shape, the Democrats will be falling all over themselves trying to explain to alienated women why they attacked her on such personal issues, blaming her for her sister’s messy divorce, her daughter’s pregnancy and her husband’s DWI of 20 years ago. Women — and men — will be impressed that Palin is the kind of anti-Washington establishment candidate for whom they are yearning. She’ll explain what she did in Alaska and what she’ll do to the power elite in Washington. Her integrity, courage and commitment are going to shine through."


•Sep 2: Stick With Sarah, Who Engenders Empathy, Inspiration: "Sarah Palin’s selection will end up as a big win for John McCain. ...The attacks on Palin mirror the problems that tens of millions of American women find in their everyday lives. To attack them would be to condemn themselves and their own choices in their own lives. Watching Palin standing strong and McCain backing her up will be inspiring to many of them. And the identification of the Democrats with the attacks on her will turn them off...The Republicans, McCain and Palin, will come through this crisis in great shape."


•Sep 1: Palin Pick Hurts Obama Bounce: "The young governor has yet to prove herself in the hurly-burly of a national campaign, but the early indications are that her story, as well as her beliefs, will have broad appeal in this unsettled year."


•Aug 26: The Better Hillary Does, The Worse For Obama: "By not putting Hillary on his ticket and then giving her a primetime speech at the convention on Tuesday, Obama has the worst of both possible worlds. The better Hillary’s speech, the more people ask why she was passed over for vice president...He didn’t help himself with these women by not choosing Hillary. Now, when Hillary spends all of Tuesday night showing what a grievous omission leaving her off the ticket really was, the electoral consequences for Obama are likely to be horrific."


•Aug 5: Bad Economy May Hurt Obama: "It almost doesn’t matter that McCain is not an economist and avows ignorance of what Thomas Carlyle called the “dismal science.” We know McCain. We know he will surround himself with some pretty capable people. And, above all, we know that he won’t raise taxes. Were these calmer times, with less of a threat from abroad and less economic danger, we might indulge our penchant for change and elect a neophyte in the hope that he will offer something different."


•Jul 29: Obama’s Women Problem: "But a bigger problem may be a cultural alienation older white women feel toward Obama. The Rev. Jeremiah Wright may linger as a worry in their increasingly gray heads as they contemplate an Obama presidency. This fear of the unknown and the gap they seem to feel with Obama is so strong that it is overcoming their normal proclivity to back Democrats...Of course, McCain is a uniquely attractive candidate to the Democratic and independent base. Long regarded as a maverick Republican, he attracts these swing voters and is ideally positioned to exploit the estrangement between older women and Barack Obama."


•Jul 8: Obama Would, In Fact, Govern From The Left: "Even if Obama means what he is saying as he moves to the center trying to win the general election, the fact is that he will be forced to move very far to the left should he become president, forced by the liberals in his own party...Obama will not be able to help himself. The Democratic majority in Congress won’t settle for triangulation. They will make the Obama of November into a liar and the Obama of the primaries into an honest man."


•Apr 8: Obama’s Weakness Is Weakness: "McCain can use the predisposition of voters to see Obama as weak, coupled with the Iraq issue, to make the strength issue his key advantage."


•Jan 23: How Clinton Will Win The Nomination By Losing S.C.: "Obama has done everything he possibly could to keep race out of this election. And the Clintons attracted national scorn when they tried to bring it back in by attempting to minimize the role Martin Luther King Jr. played in the civil rights movement. But here they have a way of appearing to seek the black vote, losing it, and getting their white backlash, all without any fingerprints showing. The more President Clinton begs black voters to back his wife, and the more they spurn her, the more the election becomes about race — and Obama ultimately loses."


•Dec 5, 2007: Hillary, Rudy May Know Life After Death: "There is only one way for Hillary to shift the focus onto Obama or John Edwards: lose. By losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, she makes the key question not her veracity but Obama’s or Edwards’s ability to win. Democrats are going to be reluctant to nominate someone they know so little about as Obama and will wonder if the nation is ready for an African-American candidate (it is) or for a man who has been senator for 104 weeks before running for president (it’s not)...But recover they both [Clinton and Giuliani] likely will. Remember how Gary Hart beat Mondale in New Hampshire in 1984 and Mondale came back to win? And how Paul Tsongas beat Clinton there in 1992 and Clinton eventually won? And how McCain defeated Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 but how Bush came back to win? Different year. New candidates. Same deal.


•Feb 7, 2007: Hillary and Rudy Could Wrap It Up This Year: "The nominees for the 2008 presidential race will be selected in 2007. The tempo of the new political process, driven by 24-hour cable news, Internet bloggers, conservative talk radio, and liberal NPR is so rapid that the nomination race cannot exist in stasis waiting for Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to get around to holding their votes in early 2008. Well before they open their caucuses or polling places, this nomination, in each party, will have been decided by the national media coverage during 2007...Right now, neither Rudy nor Hillary has a front-runner’s lock, but they are clearly the man and woman to beat in their respective parties. If they hold their leads through Labor Day, my bet is that it will be all over."
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Old 08-12-2012, 01:04 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeyy View Post
This is a list of how bad Dick Morris is at predictions. He is probably the worst pundit there is and he lives off his association with Clinton. That is the reason FOX keeps him around. Not because he is any good at this sort of thing.

•Oct 28: Undecideds Should Break For McCain: "As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance. If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain."


•Oct 21: The Populism Divide: "Then came Obama’s conversation with Joe the Plumber, possibly the decisive moment in the election."


•Oct 14: The Nuts At ACORN Could Cause Obama’s Fall: "At the very least, the negative publicity ACORN will attract will paint Obama as a radical with questionable judgment. At the most, it might cause voters to wonder if he is not himself involved in electoral fraud."


•Sep 16: Candidate and Party: The Obama Deficit: "How odd that Obama, with a world-class personality and an incredibly charismatic speaking style, should be losing the mano-a-mano contest to McCain, who is 25 years older and a foot shorter. But McCain has opened up a decisive lead over Obama, actually using the Democrat’s articulateness against him."


•Sep 9: Obama vs. Obama: "Now that McCain has definitively, and I suspect irreversibly, separated himself from Bush, he has become an acceptable alternative to Obama for voters seeking change...Obama was wrong to invest so much in the Bush-McCain linkage...The Obama campaign doesn’t seem to get that it is running against McCain, not Sarah Palin. They spent the entire Republican convention and the week since attacking the vice presidential candidate. That’s like stabbing the capillaries instead of the arteries. Nobody is going to vote for or against McCain because they want Sarah Palin to be vice president of the United States, or don’t."


•Sep 3: Dems Pounce Too Soon: "If Palin emerges from her [convention] speech in good shape, the Democrats will be falling all over themselves trying to explain to alienated women why they attacked her on such personal issues, blaming her for her sister’s messy divorce, her daughter’s pregnancy and her husband’s DWI of 20 years ago. Women — and men — will be impressed that Palin is the kind of anti-Washington establishment candidate for whom they are yearning. She’ll explain what she did in Alaska and what she’ll do to the power elite in Washington. Her integrity, courage and commitment are going to shine through."


•Sep 2: Stick With Sarah, Who Engenders Empathy, Inspiration: "Sarah Palin’s selection will end up as a big win for John McCain. ...The attacks on Palin mirror the problems that tens of millions of American women find in their everyday lives. To attack them would be to condemn themselves and their own choices in their own lives. Watching Palin standing strong and McCain backing her up will be inspiring to many of them. And the identification of the Democrats with the attacks on her will turn them off...The Republicans, McCain and Palin, will come through this crisis in great shape."


•Sep 1: Palin Pick Hurts Obama Bounce: "The young governor has yet to prove herself in the hurly-burly of a national campaign, but the early indications are that her story, as well as her beliefs, will have broad appeal in this unsettled year."


•Aug 26: The Better Hillary Does, The Worse For Obama: "By not putting Hillary on his ticket and then giving her a primetime speech at the convention on Tuesday, Obama has the worst of both possible worlds. The better Hillary’s speech, the more people ask why she was passed over for vice president...He didn’t help himself with these women by not choosing Hillary. Now, when Hillary spends all of Tuesday night showing what a grievous omission leaving her off the ticket really was, the electoral consequences for Obama are likely to be horrific."


•Aug 5: Bad Economy May Hurt Obama: "It almost doesn’t matter that McCain is not an economist and avows ignorance of what Thomas Carlyle called the “dismal science.” We know McCain. We know he will surround himself with some pretty capable people. And, above all, we know that he won’t raise taxes. Were these calmer times, with less of a threat from abroad and less economic danger, we might indulge our penchant for change and elect a neophyte in the hope that he will offer something different."


•Jul 29: Obama’s Women Problem: "But a bigger problem may be a cultural alienation older white women feel toward Obama. The Rev. Jeremiah Wright may linger as a worry in their increasingly gray heads as they contemplate an Obama presidency. This fear of the unknown and the gap they seem to feel with Obama is so strong that it is overcoming their normal proclivity to back Democrats...Of course, McCain is a uniquely attractive candidate to the Democratic and independent base. Long regarded as a maverick Republican, he attracts these swing voters and is ideally positioned to exploit the estrangement between older women and Barack Obama."


•Jul 8: Obama Would, In Fact, Govern From The Left: "Even if Obama means what he is saying as he moves to the center trying to win the general election, the fact is that he will be forced to move very far to the left should he become president, forced by the liberals in his own party...Obama will not be able to help himself. The Democratic majority in Congress won’t settle for triangulation. They will make the Obama of November into a liar and the Obama of the primaries into an honest man."


•Apr 8: Obama’s Weakness Is Weakness: "McCain can use the predisposition of voters to see Obama as weak, coupled with the Iraq issue, to make the strength issue his key advantage."


•Jan 23: How Clinton Will Win The Nomination By Losing S.C.: "Obama has done everything he possibly could to keep race out of this election. And the Clintons attracted national scorn when they tried to bring it back in by attempting to minimize the role Martin Luther King Jr. played in the civil rights movement. But here they have a way of appearing to seek the black vote, losing it, and getting their white backlash, all without any fingerprints showing. The more President Clinton begs black voters to back his wife, and the more they spurn her, the more the election becomes about race — and Obama ultimately loses."


•Dec 5, 2007: Hillary, Rudy May Know Life After Death: "There is only one way for Hillary to shift the focus onto Obama or John Edwards: lose. By losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, she makes the key question not her veracity but Obama’s or Edwards’s ability to win. Democrats are going to be reluctant to nominate someone they know so little about as Obama and will wonder if the nation is ready for an African-American candidate (it is) or for a man who has been senator for 104 weeks before running for president (it’s not)...But recover they both [Clinton and Giuliani] likely will. Remember how Gary Hart beat Mondale in New Hampshire in 1984 and Mondale came back to win? And how Paul Tsongas beat Clinton there in 1992 and Clinton eventually won? And how McCain defeated Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 but how Bush came back to win? Different year. New candidates. Same deal.


•Feb 7, 2007: Hillary and Rudy Could Wrap It Up This Year: "The nominees for the 2008 presidential race will be selected in 2007. The tempo of the new political process, driven by 24-hour cable news, Internet bloggers, conservative talk radio, and liberal NPR is so rapid that the nomination race cannot exist in stasis waiting for Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to get around to holding their votes in early 2008. Well before they open their caucuses or polling places, this nomination, in each party, will have been decided by the national media coverage during 2007...Right now, neither Rudy nor Hillary has a front-runner’s lock, but they are clearly the man and woman to beat in their respective parties. If they hold their leads through Labor Day, my bet is that it will be all over."
That looks like a compilation thrown together by some left-leaner at the Huffington Post, or some similar publication.

In any case, I read a few of these--and then moved on.

The ones I read did not strike me as examples of mistaken analysis.

Are you certain, for instance, that the majority of undecided voters did not vote for John McCain in 2008? (Frankly, I do not have that statistic at my disposal, currently.)

And the adverb, "possibly," with regard to the second observation, leaves that one very much open. The moment with Joe the Plumber could have been an inflection point--"possibly."

Oh, and I do think that ACORN (which has since been reincarnated as another organization) remains a stain upon the Obama administration's overall record. But this election will be principally about the economy, I believe--not about some tangential issues.

Still, if you wish to dismiss Dick Morris' observations cavalierly, as concerning the 2012 presidential election, fine...
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Old 08-12-2012, 01:10 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
That looks like a compilation thrown together by some left-leaner at the Huffington Post, or some similar publication.

In any case, I read a few of these--and then moved on.

The ones I read did not strike me as examples of mistaken analysis.

Are you certain, for instance, that the majority of undecided voters did not vote for John McCain in 2008? (Frankly, I do not have that statistic at my disposal, currently.)

And the adverb, "possibly," with regard to the second observation, leaves that one very much open. The moment with Joe the Plumber could have been an inflection point--"possibly."

Oh, and I do think that ACORN (which has since been reincarnated as another organization) remains a stain upon the Obama administration's overall record. But this election will be principally about the economy, I believe--not about some tangential issues.

Still, if you wish to dismiss Dick Morris' observations cavalierly, as concerning the 2012 presidential election, fine...
Like I said before. If it were not for his connection to Clinton he wouldn't be on FOX. It's not because he is good at this.
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Old 08-12-2012, 08:27 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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Like I said before. If it were not for his connection to Clinton he wouldn't be on FOX. It's not because he is good at this.
Do you have some objective reason for believing that Dick Morris' analysis, as regarding this particular matter, is flawed? (Note: Your general distaste for the man is quite insufficient to dismiss his analysis here...)
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Old 08-12-2012, 08:31 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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Do you have some objective reason for believing that Dick Morris' analysis, as regarding this particular matter, is flawed? (Note: Your general distaste for the man is quite insufficient to dismiss his analysis here...)
Yes, he is too partisan to be objective. Plus he gets paid for being a FOX analyst. It's the only job he could probably land at this point. But you can follow him.
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:00 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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Yes, he is too partisan to be objective. Plus he gets paid for being a FOX analyst. It's the only job he could probably land at this point. But you can follow him.
That can hardly qualify as a serious rebuttal of his analysis. (By the way, as the person who turned around the Clinton presidency after a mediocre first term, Dick Morris can scarcely be described as a partisan Republican...)
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:05 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
This is Dick Morris' take on those recent polls showing a widening lead for President Obama over his Republican challenger:





And the link: Don’t Believe Poll Propaganda at DickMorris.com
It will also depend on people getting an updated i.d.
I don't drive anymore and foolishly let my dr lic expire. After all these years Fla now wants a photo id (updated) to mail me my birth certificate (which is buried in storage in Idaho-I swore I brought it with me) to get a new updated id so I will have to go to Florida or what I don't know but if people who are poorer than me have let their id expire pity upon them fer sure.
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:11 PM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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That can hardly qualify as a serious rebuttal of his analysis. (By the way, as the person who turned around the Clinton presidency after a mediocre first term, Dick Morris can scarcely be described as a partisan Republican...)
You give Dick Morris a lot of credit. Look, His analysis these days always finds the left wanting. There are people that are better at this than him. BTW why did you chose his analysis? Did the fit your notions?
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Old 08-14-2012, 12:28 AM
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Default Re: Dick Morris on the polls showing a widening lead for Obama

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Originally Posted by Mikeyy View Post
You give Dick Morris a lot of credit. Look, His analysis these days always finds the left wanting. There are people that are better at this than him. BTW why did you chose his analysis? Did the fit your notions?
Why did you dismiss his analysis, out of hand?

Was it just too uncongenial to your notions?
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