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Open Discussion Discuss The percentage of deaths from Covid-19 at the General Forum; The number suggested by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus that we have heard repeatedly--3.4 percent (the supposed mortality rate for ...

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Old 04-18-2020, 05:08 PM
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Default The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

The number suggested by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus that we have heard repeatedly--3.4 percent (the supposed mortality rate for those who catch Covid-19)--has almost become gospel. After all, if something is repeated enough times, it becomes an accepted part of our database of knowledge.

But now that figure is being challenged. And not just by President Trump, either.

Assistant Secretary of Health Brett Giroir recently noted that "[t]he best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for Covid-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent. That’s lower than you’ve heard probably in many reports."

Yes, that is still a lot of Americans (although it is not 0.1 percent to 1.0 percent of all Americans; it is just that percentage of those who contact Covid-19.

Perhaps it would be a reasonable thing to correct the record here...
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Old 04-18-2020, 11:11 PM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

It's even less considering they're counting people WITH covid-19 when they died instead of counting the people who died BECAUSE of covid-19...
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Old 04-19-2020, 02:54 PM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

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Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
It's even less considering they're counting people WITH covid-19 when they died instead of counting the people who died BECAUSE of covid-19...
Yes, it is my understanding that a person with covid-19. who dies in an automobile accident, is likely to be listed as a fatality due to covid-19...
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Old 04-20-2020, 06:07 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

Add to that the fact that the CDC is not counting Covid infections as they would influenza.

The United States typically has around 40-60 million influenza cases every flu season. However, we don't test that many people. The only people that are tested are those that seek out medical care. The vast majority of people that get the flu, never visit a doctor and get tested. The CDC takes this into account when they calculate the number of people that get the flu annually.

However with Covid, the only people considered to have been infected with Covid, are those that have tested positive. Therefore, when they calculate the mortality rate, they are using a much smaller denominator than they would when the calculate the mortality rate of the flu.

I have read estimates that the actual number of people that either have or have had Covid is about 50 times the number being reported by the CDC. If the CDC used the same methods to count and calculate that they do for the flu, the actual mortality rate would be very similar to the flu.
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Old 04-20-2020, 07:36 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Yes, it is my understanding that a person with covid-19. who dies in an automobile accident, is likely to be listed as a fatality due to covid-19...
Quote:
Originally Posted by GetAClue View Post
Add to that the fact that the CDC is not counting Covid infections as they would influenza.

The United States typically has around 40-60 million influenza cases every flu season. However, we don't test that many people. The only people that are tested are those that seek out medical care. The vast majority of people that get the flu, never visit a doctor and get tested. The CDC takes this into account when they calculate the number of people that get the flu annually.

However with Covid, the only people considered to have been infected with Covid, are those that have tested positive. Therefore, when they calculate the mortality rate, they are using a much smaller denominator than they would when the calculate the mortality rate of the flu.

I have read estimates that the actual number of people that either have or have had Covid is about 50 times the number being reported by the CDC. If the CDC used the same methods to count and calculate that they do for the flu, the actual mortality rate would be very similar to the flu.
both good points.
hard to make apples to apples comparisons when the counting standards are different.
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Old 04-20-2020, 07:54 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

The amount of disinformation in this thread is appalling, but entirely predictable coming from you idiots.

If someone dies in a car accident, they are NOT listed as having died from COVID-19. The “probable” cases that New York City and some other jurisdictions are now including in the COVID-19 death totals are people who exhibited symptoms that led a doctor to believe they had the virus and had the virus listed as the cause of death on their death certificate, but did not have a test to confirm that diagnosis.

But, the simple demonstrable fact is that the death totals from the virus are still undercounted. For example, the New York City Department of Health released data last week that over 18,000 people died in New York City over a 30-day period from mid-March to mid-April. In prior years, the death total, and the expected death total for this year absent the virus, was around 5,000 people. That leaves 13,000 extra deaths. As of the date that the data was released, New York City health officials were counting just over 10,000 of those extra deaths as due to COVID-19. That still leaves 3,000 unaccounted for deaths, many, if not most of which, were also due to the virus.
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Old 04-20-2020, 09:44 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19



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Old 04-20-2020, 10:04 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
The amount of disinformation in this thread is appalling, but entirely predictable coming from you idiots.

If someone dies in a car accident, they are NOT listed as having died from COVID-19. The “probable” cases that New York City and some other jurisdictions are now including in the COVID-19 death totals are people who exhibited symptoms that led a doctor to believe they had the virus and had the virus listed as the cause of death on their death certificate, but did not have a test to confirm that diagnosis.

But, the simple demonstrable fact is that the death totals from the virus are still undercounted. For example, the New York City Department of Health released data last week that over 18,000 people died in New York City over a 30-day period from mid-March to mid-April. In prior years, the death total, and the expected death total for this year absent the virus, was around 5,000 people. That leaves 13,000 extra deaths. As of the date that the data was released, New York City health officials were counting just over 10,000 of those extra deaths as due to COVID-19. That still leaves 3,000 unaccounted for deaths, many, if not most of which, were also due to the virus.
counting the "extra" deaths 3000 a covid is an assumption.


And just so were clear
Washington Post
"
In Alabama, officials have ruled that one of every 10 people who died with covid-19 did not die of covid-19. Among those excluded from the numbers reported to the federal government were a bedbound patient with aspiration pneumonia in one lung and a person with a buildup of fluid and partial collapse of one lung.
Colorado, by contrast, has included some deaths where the disease caused by the novel coronavirus was deemed probable — based on symptoms and possible exposure — but not confirmed through a test.
Health officials in both states say their approach is more accurate. Their divergent methods reflect a national debate over how to count the dead.
The U.S. government’s covid-19 death toll is widely believed to be an undercount because, at a time when access to testing has been severely limited, federal officials described their count as including only people who tested positive for the virus
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website this week to explicitly say that cases where the infection was not confirmed by a test may now be counted. But attributing a death to the virus can be a judgment call, experts say, and potentially a vexing one as indications emerge that the disease damages not just the lungs but also the heart, kidneys and other organs.
As a result, the overall tally — a benchmark broadcast constantly on cable news and elsewhere — is a less concrete figure than it appears. The inconsistent counting methods also raise questions about the ability to draw comparisons from state to state, and they play into a political debate about the reliability of the numbers.
WP
the writer assumes under count but while admitting "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website this week to explicitly say that cases where the infection was not confirmed by a test may now be counted." "But attributing a death to the virus can be a judgment call, "
BRUSSELS—While the U.S., France and other countries adjust upward their death tolls from coronavirus to include uncounted fatalities, Belgium is considering doing the opposite.
Facing one of the world’s highest population-adjusted death rates, Belgium’s health minister said the country may have been overestimating fatalities. Her proposal to offer a second set of figures including only tested, confirmed coronavirus fatalities, which has sparked controversy in this country of 11.5 million people, offers new evidence of how...
WSJ
...

Then there this:
Minnesota State Senator Scott Jensen represents Minnesota. He’s also a doctor. He appeared on Local News and Fox News with Laura Ingram where he revealed a very disturbing piece of information.
Dr. Scott Jensen says the American Medical Association is now “encouraging” doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the country.
Jensen received a 7-page document that showed him how to fill out a death certificate as a “COVID-19 diagnosis” even when there isn’t a lab test confirming the diagnosis.
“Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do.”
GR
https://youtu.be/_qWmiWf81zI


So yeah... the counts can definitely be skewing Upward. especially in the light of the fact that we have no clue as to the number of people that have the virus and never got very sick or sick at all.
so the percentages of actual dying of covid19 to those with the virus maybe FAR lower than estimated.
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Last edited by mr wonder; 04-20-2020 at 10:15 AM..
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:17 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
The amount of disinformation in this thread is appalling, but entirely predictable coming from you idiots.

If someone dies in a car accident, they are NOT listed as having died from COVID-19. The “probable” cases that New York City and some other jurisdictions are now including in the COVID-19 death totals are people who exhibited symptoms that led a doctor to believe they had the virus and had the virus listed as the cause of death on their death certificate, but did not have a test to confirm that diagnosis.

But, the simple demonstrable fact is that the death totals from the virus are still undercounted. For example, the New York City Department of Health released data last week that over 18,000 people died in New York City over a 30-day period from mid-March to mid-April. In prior years, the death total, and the expected death total for this year absent the virus, was around 5,000 people. That leaves 13,000 extra deaths. As of the date that the data was released, New York City health officials were counting just over 10,000 of those extra deaths as due to COVID-19. That still leaves 3,000 unaccounted for deaths, many, if not most of which, were also due to the virus.
As usual you throw out unsupported numbers along with crude insults. So impressive.

Even if we accept your numbers temporarily, simply attributing the increased fatalities to the Chinese virus is counting auto accidents as pandemic deaths. But hey, you know best.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:38 AM
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Default Re: The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

Italy revised it's numbers down:
and said
Italian research finds 99% of virus victims had prior illnesses: report
Moreover, average age of COVID-19 deaths stands at 79.5, study shows
A new Italian study found that more than 99% of the country's coronavirus victims were patients who suffered from previous health issues, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
The research, conducted by the country’s national health authority, a Rome-based institute, could explain why Italy’s death rate is higher than in other nations -- at almost 8% of total COVID-19 patients.
Examining 18% of Italy’s virus fatalities, the study showed that only three non-survivors had no previous pathology, according to Bloomberg. In addition, almost 50% of the victims suffered from at least three previous illnesses and approximately 25% had one or two previous conditions.
More than 75% of victims had high blood pressure, 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.
Moreover, the disease is clearly deadlier to the elderly. The median age of the infected is 63 but most of those dying from the disease are older. The average age of those who died from the disease stands at 79.5, Bloomberg reported...I24
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