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Open Discussion Discuss The power of having the second convention at the General Forum; Traditionally, each party has received a post-convention bounce in the polls. It does not last very long, however. An interesting ...

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Old 04-15-2020, 02:26 PM
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Default The power of having the second convention

Traditionally, each party has received a post-convention bounce in the polls. It does not last very long, however.

An interesting fact, though: The party that is ahead in the polls, after the second convention is just over, usually wins the presidential election in November.

And the Republican convention, this year, is in July--just over a month after the Democratic convention.

Does this play well for the Republicans?
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Old 04-15-2020, 02:47 PM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

I think the entire concept is moot during the extreme times we are living in today with forced business closings....

These conventions are worthless while the entire country wants to get back to work and become somewhat normal soon....
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Old 04-16-2020, 12:16 AM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

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Originally Posted by Dave1 View Post
I think the entire concept is moot during the extreme times we are living in today with forced business closings....

These conventions are worthless while the entire country wants to get back to work and become somewhat normal soon....
90% agreed...

The 10% disagreement comes in that a convention will show things closer to normal, and a public showing of a large crowd...Also, it will (should) take the minds off of individual lockdown issues...
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Old 04-16-2020, 10:18 AM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

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Originally Posted by Dave1 View Post
I think the entire concept is moot during the extreme times we are living in today with forced business closings....

These conventions are worthless while the entire country wants to get back to work and become somewhat normal soon....
Sure, the idea of skipping the convention has nothing to do with Biden's fleeting relationship with coherence especially in the late afternoon and early evening. The NYT has already buckled to the demands of Biden's handlers to edit their story. A live acceptance speech, typically the high point of the convention, is just too much of a risk. Biden is just as likely to lapse into stories about corn pop and leg hair always portraying himself as an ersatz superhero as he is to share his time growing up as a British coal miner.

Now that Obama has endorsed him, expect Biden's public appearance to be limited to reciting from the teleprompter with the wife at his elbow.
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Old 04-17-2020, 07:57 PM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Traditionally, each party has received a post-convention bounce in the polls. It does not last very long, however.

An interesting fact, though: The party that is ahead in the polls, after the second convention is just over, usually wins the presidential election in November.

And the Republican convention, this year, is in July--just over a month after the Democratic convention.

Does this play well for the Republicans?
Recent history is a bit iffy on that. Keep in mind I'm going by RealClearPolitics when I'm referring to polling.

In 2008, the Republicans held their convention after the Democrats, and while McCain's poll numbers shot up after over Obama, it didn't last. Obama won.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...obama-225.html

This "rule" did hold true in 2012. The Democrats went last, and Obama took the lead, eventually winning a 2nd term.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...bama-1171.html

And in 2016, the Dems held their convention 2nd, and while Hillary's polling numbers increased afterwards, Trump still took the WH at the end of the day.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html

In all instances however, polling bounces post-convention did fade fairly quickly. Maybe we get a little distracted by balloons.

Oh and as this time goes, the Democrats did move their convention to August, meaning they'll go last again.
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Old 04-18-2020, 12:07 AM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Oh and as this time goes, the Democrats did move their convention to August, meaning they'll go last again.
Does that mean the Republicans should re-schedule their convention to a week after the Dems?...
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Old 04-18-2020, 02:38 PM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
This "rule" did hold true in 2012. The Democrats went last, and Obama took the lead, eventually winning a 2nd term.
Most of your post (and I am quoting just a little of it here) is actually quite trenchant. But I do admit to being a bit confused here.

If the Democratic convention was the latter of the two in 2012; and if the Democratic candidate won that year; would that not be an example of this rule "hold[ing] true"?
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Old 04-20-2020, 04:10 PM
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Default Re: The power of having the second convention

Quote:
Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Traditionally, each party has received a post-convention bounce in the polls. It does not last very long, however.

An interesting fact, though: The party that is ahead in the polls, after the second convention is just over, usually wins the presidential election in November.

And the Republican convention, this year, is in July--just over a month after the Democratic convention.

Does this play well for the Republicans?
I thought you were gonna say two conventions for Rs and two for Ds.
I'd have said heck yeah if someone runs against trump and biden. the two worst candidates since hillary and trump.
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