Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > General Forum > News & Current Events
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

News & Current Events Discuss Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe at the General Forum; Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe resistance to the vaccines is a main reason the ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-03-2021, 03:21 PM
saltwn's Avatar
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Esto perpetua
Posts: 87,999
Thanks: 57,056
Thanked 26,845 Times in 19,296 Posts
Send a message via AIM to saltwn Send a message via MSN to saltwn Send a message via Yahoo to saltwn
Default Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe




Quote:
resistance to the vaccines is a main reason the United States is unlikely to reach herd immunity, it is not the only one.
Because of 30% of Americans being resistant to getting vaccinated, the virus is allowed to live and replicate eventually causing further mutant versions like ones we've already seen. These mutants are 60% easier to spread.
Quote:
Once the novel coronavirus began to spread across the globe in early 2020, it became increasingly clear that the only way out of the pandemic would be for so many people to gain immunity — whether through natural infection or vaccination — that the virus would run out of people to infect. The concept of reaching herd immunity became the implicit goal in many countries, including the United States.

Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available.

But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.

As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.

Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
.

Eventually if enough at risk groups continue to get vaccinated, the young and healthy will be more at risk, according to evolutionary biologists who study disease.
And somewhere down the road in maybe decades or longer the disease will maybe become less of a threat due to precautions or the disease having run its course and there is natural herd immunity, but not in our lifetime.
So if you are at risk that's all the more reason to take the shot because there is not going to be any herd immunity to protect you.
__________________
“Hate is like an acid. It damages the vessel in which it’s stored and destroys the vessels on which it’s poured.”
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
believe, experts, immunity’, now, reaching, the, unlikely, ‘herd

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0