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News & Current Events Discuss Why I support President Donald Trump at the General Forum; Originally Posted by CindyB Can you post some proof of your above statements? I thought not 538 polling averages for ...

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Old 10-05-2020, 07:15 PM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by CindyB View Post
Can you post some proof of your above statements?
I thought not
538 polling averages for 2020. Biden leads by 8.2% nationally.

538 polling averages for 2016. Hillary led by 4.1% on October 4, 2016.

For comparison, at the beginning of October in 1980, Reagan led Carter by around 4 points.

Trump is toast. Thank goodness.
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Old 10-05-2020, 08:32 PM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
538 polling averages for 2020. Biden leads by 8.2% nationally.

538 polling averages for 2016. Hillary led by 4.1% on October 4, 2016.

For comparison, at the beginning of October in 1980, Reagan led Carter by around 4 points.

Trump is toast. Thank goodness.
Two points....

1) Your graph on 2016 is dated November 8th...The day of the election and NOT a month beforehand.

2) Your graph on 2016 ALSO includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, whereas the 2020 graph shows no third party candidates.


Also, here is Time magazine, from late October 2016, showing Hillary with a FOURTEEN-POINT LEAD less than two weeks before the election.

Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 14 Points Nationally in New Poll



Now, in honesty, I don't give polls (especially national ones) a lot of credence...

...but if you want to make a comparison that Biden is doing better than Hillary at the same point in time, Time magazine disproves that (They are reporting on a Associated Press-GfK poll)...To be up 14 points 12 days before an election shows Biden would need another 6 points in the next 3 weeks to match it...
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Old 10-05-2020, 08:38 PM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

To wit...From today...

IBD/TIPP Election Poll Shows Trump Closes Gap in Presidential Race; Biden Leads by Just 2.7 Points

Quote:
In its new election poll, IBD/TIPP found that with less than a month to go before the election, President Trump has cut into former Vice President Joe Bidenís lead. Biden is up by just 2.7 points (48.6% to 45.9%) among likely voters, which is within the pollís credibility interval. An IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters released on Sept. 21 indicated Biden had a 5.6-point lead, 49.5% to 43.9%. An early September IBD/TIPP showed Biden with an eight-point edge, 49% to 41%, among registered voters. The IBD/TIPP presidential election poll has been the most accurate over the past four election cycles and was one of only two national polls to correctly predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election.

Notably, 19% of voters who watched or listened to the first presidential debate indicated that they plan to switch their vote, with the majority of those swinging towards Trump (11% vs. Bidenís pickup of 8%), even though more people thought that Biden won the debate (44% to Trumpís 33%).
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Old 10-06-2020, 08:51 AM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
Two points....

1) Your graph on 2016 is dated November 8th...The day of the election and NOT a month beforehand.

2) Your graph on 2016 ALSO includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, whereas the 2020 graph shows no third party candidates.


Also, here is Time magazine, from late October 2016, showing Hillary with a FOURTEEN-POINT LEAD less than two weeks before the election.

Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 14 Points Nationally in New Poll



Now, in honesty, I don't give polls (especially national ones) a lot of credence...

...but if you want to make a comparison that Biden is doing better than Hillary at the same point in time, Time magazine disproves that (They are reporting on a Associated Press-GfK poll)...To be up 14 points 12 days before an election shows Biden would need another 6 points in the next 3 weeks to match it...
You're citing individual polls. A polling average (which is what I posted) is a far better indicator of the state of the race (and you can click on any date in the 538 averages to see the polling average for that date). I'm happy to see Trumpsters thinking the race is close because it will just heighten the schadenfreude when Biden wins big.
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Old 10-06-2020, 10:18 AM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
538 polling averages for 2020. Biden leads by 8.2% nationally.

538 polling averages for 2016. Hillary led by 4.1% on October 4, 2016.

For comparison, at the beginning of October in 1980, Reagan led Carter by around 4 points.

Trump is toast. Thank goodness.
Really? Reagan was only leading by 4 points; and your sighting that as proof accurate polling?

Ronald Reagan won the election by a huge landslide (winning 49 out of 50 states). His election received the highest electoral votes towards any presidential nominee in American history.

Do you really think all that swing occurred in 30 days? Really?


Trust them polls my friend; go with them polls.
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Old 10-06-2020, 11:43 AM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
538 polling averages for 2020. Biden leads by 8.2% nationally.

538 polling averages for 2016. Hillary led by 4.1% on October 4, 2016.

For comparison, at the beginning of October in 1980, Reagan led Carter by around 4 points.

Trump is toast. Thank goodness.
FYI, the 538 polling average is now up to an 8.8 point lead for Biden. He's gained almost 2 full points since the debate. His lead in the key swing states is also growing (he has increased or taken the lead in all of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since the debate). Biden now leads in states with 369 electoral votes.
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Old 10-06-2020, 11:56 AM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop;993763

[B
Trump is toast [/B] Thank goodness.
I hope you are sitting down with a stiff drink on election night.

You will need it.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:54 PM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by CindyB View Post
Got this from a friend.
Something I noticed recently about Trump few have mentioned.
From Reagan to Obama, all these Presidents brought our nation into war action some 26 times. The winner of the Nobel for Peace did so 6 separate times.

Reagan =7
Bush 41=5
Clinton =3
Bush 43=5
Obama =6


Trump = 0


We have been at war somewhere in the world for 36 years.
Biden was advocating in the Legislature or the Executive branch that entire time

Think about that for a minute.
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Old 10-06-2020, 03:04 PM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

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I hope you are sitting down with a stiff drink on election night.

You will need it.
At this point in 2016, Trump only needed to win over people who were still undecided. Hillary was still polling well under 50%. Biden is polling well over 50%, so Trump cannot win unless he convinces millions of Biden supporters to switch sides. That's a hell of a lot harder to accomplish. Trump could still win, but it's becoming more and more unlikely every day.
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Old 10-06-2020, 03:33 PM
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Default Re: Why I support President Donald Trump

I just find it so hard to believe anyone could vote for Biden, he's on record for being in favor of open borders, just let anyone in, he is in favor of giving illegal alien's free Social Security benefits (I had to work for mine) He said he would raise taxes and end fracking and the economy will take a nose dive. Except for the Covid thing which is NOT Trump's fault our economy was doing GREAT and even now the stock market is back to record highs. Do Democrats not like a great economy? I may have to wear a tin foil hat but part of me believes China unleased this Virus on us JUST to hurt Trump, they hate his guts because he is pushing China to make fairer trade deals. China has been screwing us for years.

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