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saltwn 03-22-2019 09:11 PM

Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes

Do tell. :rolls

Quote:

During an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” this past Sunday, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) lambasted President Trump for emboldening white nationalism after a young man killed at least 50 people at two New Zealand mosques. Kaine was referring to Trump’s answer after a reporter asked whether he sees "today that white nationalism is a rising threat around the world?” Trump responded, “I don’t really.”

This is not the first time Trump has been accused of catering to white nationalists after a terrorist attack. At an August 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, a young white man rammed his car into a crowd of counterprotesters, killing Heather Heyer. Afterward, Trump insisted that “there’s blame on both sides” for the violence.
Quote:

Then in October 2018, a gunman killed 11 congregants at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh. When Trump announced plans to visit the synagogue, many people in Squirrel Hill, the city’s predominantly Jewish neighborhood, took to the streets demanding first that Trump renounce white nationalism before paying his respects to the victims.

Trump has strongly rejected any charges that he’s to blame, tweeting Monday:


Quote:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
The Fake News Media is working overtime to blame me for the horrible attack in New Zealand. They will have to work very hard to prove that one. So Ridiculous!

Our research finds that Kaine could be correct, however: Trump’s rhetoric may encourage hate crimes, as we explain below.


Quote:

Does Trump’s political rhetoric have a measurable link to reported hate crime and extremist activity?

We examined this question, given that so many politicians and pundits accuse Trump of emboldening white nationalists. White nationalist leaders seem to agree, as leaders including Richard Spencer and David Duke have publicly supported Trump’s candidacy and presidency, even if they still criticize him for not going far enough. The New Zealand shooter even referred to Trump as a “renewed symbol of white identity.”

So, do attitudes like these have real world consequences? Recent research on far-right groups suggests that they do, especially when these attitudes are embraced and encourage by peers. Specifically, the quantity of neo-Nazi and racist skinhead groups active in a state leads to increased reports of hate crimes within that state.


How we did our research

Using the Anti-Defamation League’s Hate, Extremism, Anti-Semitism, Terrorism map data (HEAT map), we examined whether there was a correlation between the counties that hosted one of Trump’s 275 presidential campaign rallies in 2016 and increased incidents of hate crimes in subsequent months.

To test this, we aggregated hate-crime incident data and Trump rally data to the county level and then used statistical tools to estimate a rally’s impact. We included controls for factors such as the county’s crime rates, its number of active hate groups, its minority populations, its percentage with college educations, its location in the country and the month when the rallies occurred.

We found that counties that had hosted a 2016 Trump campaign rally saw a 226 percent increase in reported hate crimes over comparable counties that did not host such a rally.

Quote:

Of course, our analysis cannot be certain it was Trump’s campaign rally rhetoric that caused people to commit more hate crimes in the host county. However, suggestions that this effect can be explained through a plethora of faux hate crimes are at best unrealistic. In fact, this charge is frequently used as a political tool to dismiss concerns about hate crimes. Research shows it is far more likely that hate crime statistics are considerably lower because of underreporting.

Additionally, it is hard to discount a “Trump effect” when a considerable number of these reported hate crimes reference Trump. According to the ADL’s 2016 data, these incidents included vandalism, intimidation and assault.

What’s more, according to the FBI’s Universal Crime report in 2017, reported hate crimes increased 17 percent over 2016. Recent research also shows that reading or hearing Trump’s statements of bias against particular groups makes people more likely to write offensive things about the groups he targets.
Related coverage of this subject: [Donald Trump is a symbol of white identity politics in Europe, too.]


Ayal Feinberg is a PhD candidate in political science at University of North Texas.

Regina Branton is a professor of political science at the University of North Texas.

Valerie Martinez-Ebers is a professor of political science and director of Latina/o and Mexican American Studies at the University of North Texas.

RedState 03-23-2019 02:10 AM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
No doubt while claiming they're the repressed minority...

but the media told us it was all about economic anxiety. :rolls

BTW, Isn't that the cringiest photoshoot ever. Trump hugging the American flag while destroying everything it stands for. He might as well go to the Statue of Liberty and grab her by the *****.

Jeerleader 03-23-2019 10:10 AM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn (Post 965219)
Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes

Do tell. :rolls

You are ignoring the real culprit, the consumption of dihydrogen monoxide by these hillbilly rubes. Nearly 100% of racist xenophobes consumed dihydrogen monoxide (in some form -- usually the exceptionally dangerous variety found in cheap beer) within two hours of their anti social justice behavior.

saltwn 03-23-2019 09:03 PM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeerleader (Post 965257)
You are ignoring the real culprit, the consumption of dihydrogen monoxide by these hillbilly rubes. Nearly 100% of racist xenophobes consumed dihydrogen monoxide (in some form -- usually the exceptionally dangerous variety found in cheap beer) within two hours of their anti social justice behavior.

drunk is not a defence and never has been
so by your standards you might string up a niggr or a jeew if you're drunk and its ok

Jeerleader 03-23-2019 09:25 PM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn (Post 965326)
drunk is not a defence and never has been
so by your standards you might string up a niggr or a jeew if you're drunk and its ok

You are a special kind of retarded but you're a liberal so I apologize for being redundant.

I was making fun of the ridiculous correlation / causation fallacy of the OP.

The link of "dihydrogen monoxide" to all manner of unfortunate outcomes and nefarious behavior is an internet joke / parody that's been around for 20 years.

Jesus Christ I can't believe you took it, well, I can't even say seriously because your take was so off the planet and, to put it mildly, sick as ****.

saltwn 03-23-2019 09:27 PM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeerleader (Post 965331)
You are a special kind of retarded but you're a liberal so I apologize for being redundant.

I was making fun of the ridiculous correlation / causation fallacy of the OP.

The link of "dihydrogen monoxide" to all manner of unfortunate outcomes and nefarious behavior is an internet joke / parody that's been around for 20 years.

Jesus Christ I can't believe you took it, well, I can't even say seriously because your take was so off the planet and, to put it mildly, sick as ****.

no :no
your excuse for trumpettes' violence is 'it's alcohol'
own it

Jeerleader 03-23-2019 09:29 PM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn (Post 965332)
no :no
your excuse for trumpettes' violence is 'it's alcohol'
own it

You are an idiot.

saltwn 03-23-2019 09:33 PM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeerleader (Post 965333)
You are an idiot.

you wish

Jeerleader 03-23-2019 09:46 PM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn (Post 965335)
you wish

Well, I wish you weren't such an idiot.

I promise I won't treat you like a thinking person ever again.

RedState 03-24-2019 06:17 AM

Re: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeerleader (Post 965331)
You are a special kind of retarded but you're a liberal so I apologize for being redundant.

I was making fun of the ridiculous correlation / causation fallacy of the OP.

The link of "dihydrogen monoxide" to all manner of unfortunate outcomes and nefarious behavior is an internet joke / parody that's been around for 20 years.

Jesus Christ I can't believe you took it, well, I can't even say seriously because your take was so off the planet and, to put it mildly, sick as ****.

Part of studying statistics is looking at correlation and seeing if there's actually a causal relationship. Now you would know that if you had actually ever bothered to educate yourself. And you would know that you should not outright dismiss correlation but instead use it as a tool to find a likely causation.

And if you weren't such a dishonest and ignorant partisan you might have noticed what could've changed between 2015 and 2017 that could've lead to an increase in hate crimes.


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