Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > General Forum > News & Current Events
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

News & Current Events Discuss Economic models indicate Trump on track to win re-election in 'landslide': report at the General Forum; Obviously too early to tell but interesting nonetheless. What's gonna help Trump is the lack of legit candidates. Only one ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2019, 12:56 PM
Hairy Jello's Avatar
Deplorable
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 24,552
Thanks: 1,966
Thanked 13,204 Times in 8,266 Posts
Default Economic models indicate Trump on track to win re-election in 'landslide': report

Obviously too early to tell but interesting nonetheless. What's gonna help Trump is the lack of legit candidates. Only one I really fear is Joe if he decides to run. But even Joe would have a tough time given how the economy has soared under Trump.

Economic models indicate Trump on track to win re-election in 'landslide': report

Despite low approval ratings and the cloud of the Mueller probe, President Trump would easily win a second term in office if the election were held today, according to economic models with a history of correctly picking presidential victors.

According to a report in Politico, a flourishing U.S. economy – featuring low unemployment numbers, cheaper gas prices and rising wages – paired with the historical advantage that incumbent presidents enjoy give Trump a strong shot at winning a second term in a "landslide."


“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” Donald Luskin, the chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm that predicted Trump’s 2016 win, told Politico. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”

Yale economist and pioneering election forecaster Ray Fair reportedly also has Trump currently winning re-election on the back of the booming economy and his incumbent's advantage.

“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” Fair told Politico, predicting that Trump would pick up 54 percent of the popular vote compared with just 46 percent for the Democrat. This would mark a significant gain from 2016, when he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.

Of course, forecasters warn that a lot can change between now and Election Day 2020. If the markets suddenly start to tank, that could spell trouble for Trump – as could any bombshell revelations from the various investigations into Trump, his business empire and his 2016 presidential campaign.

And one of the biggest variables involves which Democratic candidate Trump ultimately will face next year, with an ever-growing field currently jockeying for the nomination. The economic models used to predict presidential winners and losers ignore things like election polls and personal characteristics – key factors when dealing with a candidate like Trump who inspires both fierce loyalty on one side and bitter opposition on the other.

Still, the economy is generally seen as the most important factor when it comes to how voters cast their ballot and Luskin says there would need to be a major decline in economic growth and uptick in unemployment for Trump to lose. Luskin’s current model – which tracks GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and payrolls – has Trump winning in a blowout with 294 electoral votes.

“It would have to slow a lot to still be not pretty good,” Luskin said of the economy.
__________________

Not an accurate representation of a white person.
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2019, 01:09 PM
lurch907's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Alaska, the greatest place on earth.
Gender: Male
Posts: 4,824
Thanks: 1,050
Thanked 3,357 Times in 1,868 Posts
Default Re: Economic models indicate Trump on track to win re-election in 'landslide': report

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hairy Jello View Post
Obviously too early to tell but interesting nonetheless. What's gonna help Trump is the lack of legit candidates. Only one I really fear is Joe if he decides to run. But even Joe would have a tough time given how the economy has soared under Trump.
I don't think there is a need to fear Joe Biden, I don't believe he can win the D primary. Older, white, male. To many on the D side use these as factors in their decision making process.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to lurch907 For This Useful Post:
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2019, 01:13 PM
FrancSevin's Avatar
Runs with scissors
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: St Louis MO
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,091
Thanks: 9,331
Thanked 12,749 Times in 7,018 Posts
Default Re: Economic models indicate Trump on track to win re-election in 'landslide': report

Quote:
Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
I don't think there is a need to fear Joe Biden, I don't believe he can win the D primary. Older, white, male. To many on the D side use these as factors in their decision making process.
Agreed.


Based on the lineup of clowns and ideologies presented so far, I don't think the Democrats have any plans to win in 2020.
__________________
I am going to hang a Batman Costume in my closet. .......... Just to screw with myself when I get alzheimer's.
sola gratia, sola fide, sola scriptura.

I AM NOT A REPUBLICAN, I AM A FREEMAN, THE DEMOCRATS WORST NIGHTMARE
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2019, 01:13 PM
Hairy Jello's Avatar
Deplorable
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 24,552
Thanks: 1,966
Thanked 13,204 Times in 8,266 Posts
Default Re: Economic models indicate Trump on track to win re-election in 'landslide': report

Quote:
Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
I don't think there is a need to fear Joe Biden
Here's one reason why. Abrams would help with the African American turnout.

Biden advisers mull launch naming Abrams as running mate: report
__________________

Not an accurate representation of a white person.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
economic, indicate, landslide, models, reelection, report, track, trump, win

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0