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News & Current Events Discuss Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms at the General Forum; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-sway-midterms Economics Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms By Katia Dmitrieva and Sarah Foster November 2, ...

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Old 11-05-2018, 03:29 PM
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Default Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-sway-midterms

Quote:
Economics

Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

By Katia Dmitrieva and Sarah Foster

November 2, 2018, 7:59 AM PDT Updated on November 2, 2018, 11:08 AM PDT

Annual hourly-wage gains top 3% for first time since 2009
Payrolls rise 250,000, topping median estimate of 200,000


President Donald Trump and Republican candidates couldn’t have asked for a better jobs report ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, but translating to poll gains and sustaining the growth may prove harder.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 250,000 in October from the prior month, Labor Department figures showed Friday, topping the 200,000 median estimate of economists. Average hourly earnings for private workers advanced 3.1 percent from a year earlier, breaching 3 percent for the first time since 2009, while the unemployment rate held at a 48-year low of 3.7 percent.

Cracking 3%
U.S. hourly wages grew at 3.1 percent in October, the fastest pace in almost a decade


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The October data, while strong across the board, may be less of an indicator of the trend than usual because payrolls and wages both reflected temporary boosts from hurricanes this year and last year.


While the underlying numbers were positive and some degree of gains is likely to continue, several factors weigh heavy: the U.S. trade war with China poses a risk, companies may be slowing capital investment and the effects of fiscal stimulus such as tax cuts are expected to fade. In addition, the figures reinforce the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate increases that will keep economic growth in check.

“We’re going to continue to see solid job gains. This job market has more room to run,” said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. At the same time, “The attention will shift toward trade but also the Fed,” which could raise interest rates another three or four times in 2019, he said.

WHAT OUR ECONOMISTS SAY

The October jobs report provided reassurance that the economy is on sound footing, despite the dramatic seesaw in the pace of hiring gains over the past several months. The breadth of job creation remains solid -- an important indication that the escalation of trade tensions is not being whitewashed by short-lived fiscal stimulus stemming from tax cuts. Furthermore, the pace of hiring is robust, especially after accounting for hurricane distortions.

-- Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Tim Mahedy, Bloomberg Economics

Read more for the full note here.
For Republicans, the good news about the economy has mostly been drowned out during the election campaign by Trump’s focus on immigration and his attacks on Democrats, both of which energize the president’s core supporters. GOP candidates in heavily Republican states and House districts have followed Trump’s lead, largely abandoning tax cuts and economic growth as election issues.

Trump’s approval ratings in Gallup’s weekly poll have been mired in a narrow range between 38 percent and 44 percent since September, a level that historically corresponds with losses for the president’s party in midterm elections.

The president tweeted that the jobs numbers were “incredible” and urged people to “Keep it going, Vote Republican!” Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on Bloomberg Television that “we’re seeing the wage growth that everybody said was impossible.”

Partisan Gaps
Polls such as the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index show wide partisan gaps on views of the economy. A Pew Research Center survey in September-October showed significant majorities of voters who support Democratic candidates saw the rich-poor gap and wages as “very big” problems in the country today.

The prospects for Republicans contrast with numbers such as broad-based hiring in October, including 30,000 in construction, 32,000 in manufacturing and 179,000 in services. Other positive signs included the participation rate, which increased to 62.9 percent from 62.7 percent, while the employment-population ratio rose to 60.6 percent from 60.4 percent.

“As long as job growth is steady, the jobless rate is low, and wages continue to edge higher, as long as we continue to keep climbing, that’s the basic support that you need for the consumer,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at Bank of Montreal in Toronto. Yet the prospect of more tariffs and Fed tightening loom as headwinds, she said.


Wage gains, while also distorted to some extent last month by hurricane effects, are probably arriving at a new normal of 3 percent, according to economists. There are also signs that pay hikes are taking hold more firmly: Amazon.com Inc. just raised its minimum hourly wage to $15 for U.S. employees. J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. and retailers Costco Wholesale Corp. and Target Corp. are among companies that have either promised or delivered higher wages.

The long-awaited gains follow relatively tepid increases throughout the current expansion, which in mid-2019 will become the longest in U.S. history. The advances are probably still not rapid enough, though, to spur inflation concerns among Fed officials, and will probably keep them on a path of gradual interest-rate hikes.

“The labor market is cookin’, and that’s the bottom line,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. “What’s really impressive is that the unemployment rate would’ve declined if the participation rate hadn’t risen, and that’s a good thing. You still have more people coming back to the labor market. There’s a lot to like.”
Trump's economy still going strong, wonder what will happen if the Blue Wave takes the House and Senate.
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Old 11-05-2018, 04:26 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Trump's economy still going strong, wonder what will happen if the Blue Wave takes the House and Senate.
Higher taxes, open borders, gun control, curtailed civil liberties. Those are what the Democrats stand for and what we can expect from a blue wave.
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Old 11-05-2018, 05:24 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Higher taxes, open borders, gun control, curtailed civil liberties. Those are what the Democrats stand for and what we can expect from a blue wave.
Democrats will take that AND a poor economic future. If it means getting rid of Trump.
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Old 11-05-2018, 05:39 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Higher taxes, open borders, gun control, curtailed civil liberties. Those are what the Democrats stand for and what we can expect from a blue wave.
I don't see the Dems taking the house...It just seems too mathematically unlikely...

Everything you've said is what they WANT, but a Republican majority Senate would put the kibosh on that...and zero chance anything would get signed by Trump...
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Old 11-05-2018, 06:02 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Originally Posted by CindyB View Post
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-sway-midterms



Trump's economy still going strong, wonder what will happen if the Blue Wave takes the House and Senate.
Maybe we’ll go back to the higher levels of job creation we had under Obama.

Jobs created last 21 months under Obama - 4,478,000
Jobs created first 21 months under Trump - 4,054,000

Source
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Old 11-05-2018, 06:24 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
Maybe we’ll go back to the higher levels of job creation we had under Obama.

Jobs created last 21 months under Obama - 4,478,000
Jobs created first 21 months under Trump - 4,054,000

Source
Stupid comparison...

Obama created waitress, retail and McDonald's jobs (while killing non-service industries) while Trump jobs are in actual non-service industries...

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Old 11-05-2018, 08:29 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

Quote:
Originally Posted by CindyB View Post
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-sway-midterms



Trump's economy still going strong, wonder what will happen if the Blue Wave takes the House and Senate.

Quote:
Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

By Katia Dmitrieva and Sarah Foster

November 2, 2018, 7:59 AM PDT Updated on November 2, 2018, 11:08 AM PDT

Annual hourly-wage gains top 3% for first time since 2009
Payrolls rise 250,000, topping median estimate of 200,000
This is good however if you look at consumer goods, groceries and mortgages, they've gone up in price too so minimal affect there.

President Donald Trump and Republican candidates couldn’t have asked for a better jobs report ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, but translating to poll gains and sustaining the growth may prove harder.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 250,000 in October from the prior month, Labor Department figures showed Friday, topping the 200,000 median estimate of economists. Average hourly earnings for private workers advanced 3.1 percent from a year earlier, breaching 3 percent for the first time since 2009, while the unemployment rate held at a 48-year low of 3.7 percent.

Cracking 3%
U.S. hourly wages grew at 3.1 percent in October, the fastest pace in almost a decade


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The October data, while strong across the board, may be less of an indicator of the trend than usual because payrolls and wages both reflected temporary boosts from hurricanes this year and last year.


While the underlying numbers were positive and some degree of gains is likely to continue, several factors weigh heavy: the U.S. trade war with China poses a risk, companies may be slowing capital investment and the effects of fiscal stimulus such as tax cuts are expected to fade. In addition, the figures reinforce the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate increases that will keep economic growth in check.
no use having a savings account with the terribly low interest rates, and most people start out with savings accounts to build then maybe invest in other stuff later. our biggest employer-walmart- doesnt have much of a decent 401k saving plan anymore.
“We’re going to continue to see solid job gains. This job market has more room to run,” said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. At the same time, “The attention will shift toward trade but also the Fed,” which could raise interest rates another three or four times in 2019, he said.


WHAT OUR ECONOMISTS SAY

The October jobs report provided reassurance that the economy is on sound footing, despite the dramatic seesaw in the pace of hiring gains over the past several months. The breadth of job creation remains solid -- an important indication that the escalation of trade tensions is not being whitewashed by short-lived fiscal stimulus stemming from tax cuts. Furthermore, the pace of hiring is robust, especially after accounting for hurricane distortions.

-- Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Tim Mahedy, Bloomberg Economics

Read more for the full note here.
For Republicans, the good news about the economy has mostly been drowned out during the election campaign by Trump’s focus on immigration and his attacks on Democrats, both of which energize the president’s core supporters. GOP candidates in heavily Republican states and House districts have followed Trump’s lead, largely abandoning tax cuts and economic growth as election issues.

Trump’s approval ratings in Gallup’s weekly poll have been mired in a narrow range between 38 percent and 44 percent since September, a level that historically corresponds with losses for the president’s party in midterm elections.

The president tweeted that the jobs numbers were “incredible” and urged people to “Keep it going, Vote Republican!” Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on Bloomberg Television that “we’re seeing the wage growth that everybody said was impossible.”

Partisan Gaps
Polls such as the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index show wide partisan gaps on views of the economy. A Pew Research Center survey in September-October showed significant majorities of voters who support Democratic candidates saw the rich-poor gap and wages as “very big” problems in the country today.

The prospects for Republicans contrast with numbers such as broad-based hiring in October, including 30,000 in construction, 32,000 in manufacturing and 179,000 in services. Other positive signs included the participation rate, which increased to 62.9 percent from 62.7 percent, while the employment-population ratio rose to 60.6 percent from 60.4 percent.

“As long as job growth is steady, the jobless rate is low, and wages continue to edge higher, as long as we continue to keep climbing, that’s the basic support that you need for the consumer,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at Bank of Montreal in Toronto. Yet the prospect of more tariffs and Fed tightening loom as headwinds, she said.

I think the great economy is great for certain people running big companies, not necessarily for their employees. And the big showrunners of our economy seem to want to push a certain flow of wealth, taking manpower needs into account and banking and such, but not the working class themselves. it kind of bypasses them now in the modern era. big money lobbyists hurt us
Wage gains, while also distorted to some extent last month by hurricane effects, are probably arriving at a new normal of 3 percent, according to economists. There are also signs that pay hikes are taking hold more firmly: Amazon.com Inc. just raised its minimum hourly wage to $15 for U.S. employees. J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. and retailers Costco Wholesale Corp. and Target Corp. are among companies that have either promised or delivered higher wages.

The long-awaited gains follow relatively tepid increases throughout the current expansion, which in mid-2019 will become the longest in U.S. history. The advances are probably still not rapid enough, though, to spur inflation concerns among Fed officials, and will probably keep them on a path of gradual interest-rate hikes.

“The labor market is cookin’, and that’s the bottom line,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. “What’s really impressive is that the unemployment rate would’ve declined if the participation rate hadn’t risen, and that’s a good thing. You still have more people coming back to the labor market. There’s a lot to like.”
A friend brought to my attention the statistics he had read that unemployment stats (via documentation) had gone down in such a way that it looks like people not working for 15 years are now working. So that begs the question, did these folk all of a sudden say hey economies good, think I'll go out and get a job!?
And I keep trying to tell you, going from minus numbers under bush to positives under obama means obama still raised the growth more.
What will happen if repubs get back in and then we reelect a repub potus is it will get worse for the average joe and they'll manage to blame it on the dems.
if the dems win both the senate and the house they better work on the economy but with so many conservative and corporate dems plus the lobbyists who knows? Some states will do better if they get dem governors. at least the theft might go down. fla right now is in sad shape for their state employee retirement wealth due to shady Scott and an investor's pac...but that's another thread.
republican politicians don't know how to manage the economy nor do they wish to. they're just up there getting all they can for their personal gain just like so many of this administration appointees.
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Last edited by saltwn; 11-05-2018 at 08:37 PM.. Reason: clarity
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Old 11-05-2018, 09:17 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

The jobs report for October 1994 was strong, didn't help the Democrats.

Quote:
The nation's job market continued to improve in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The
unemployment rate was little changed over the month but, at 5.8 percent, is
nearly a full percentage point below the January level. Nonfarm payroll
employment--as measured by the survey of employers--rose by 194,000 in
October, including a substantial gain in factory jobs. Both average
earnings and the overall workweek in the private sector rose markedly over
the month. Total employment--as measured by the household survey--
experienced its third consecutive large increase, after rising modestly
earlier in the year.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/his...sit_110494.txt
On top of that, Trump hasn't been talking up the economy nearly as often as he should have. He's spent most of his rallies ranting and making up ridiculous lies about Democrats and trying to fearmonger over the caravan. He's wasted whatever good points he could have been using to shore up Republican support.
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Old 11-05-2018, 09:21 PM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
The jobs report for October 1994 was strong, didn't help the Democrats.



On top of that, Trump hasn't been talking up the economy nearly as often as he should have. He's spent most of his rallies ranting and making up ridiculous lies about Democrats and trying to fearmonger over the caravan. He's wasted whatever good points he could have been using to shore up Republican support.
yes. and I find that weird.
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Old 11-06-2018, 11:42 AM
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Default Re: Jobs Report Delivers for Trump But Unlikely to Sway Midterms

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Originally Posted by saltwn View Post
A friend brought to my attention the statistics he had read that unemployment stats (via documentation) had gone down in such a way that it looks like people not working for 15 years are now working. So that begs the question, did these folk all of a sudden say hey economies good, think I'll go out and get a job!?
And I keep trying to tell you, going from minus numbers under bush to positives under obama means obama still raised the growth more.

What will happen if repubs get back in and then we reelect a repub potus is it will get worse for the average joe and they'll manage to blame it on the dems.

if the dems win both the senate and the house they better work on the economy but with so many conservative and corporate dems plus the lobbyists who knows?

Some states will do better if they get dem governors. at least the theft might go down. fla right now is in sad shape for their state employee retirement wealth due to shady Scott and an investor's pac...but that's another thread.


republican politicians don't know how to manage the economy nor do they wish to. they're just up there getting all they can for their personal gain just like so many of this administration appointees.
Good grief Salty, what a jumbled mess of random weird statements.

There are just as many corrupt Democrat politicians as Republican ones and anyone that says different is just being dishonest.

https://www.watchdog.org/florida/rep...515db8f1f.html
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