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40yearfan 12-10-2013 11:05 AM

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Monday, December 09, 2013

Republicans still hold a five-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending December 8.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their districtís congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead.
Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports

In the first part of November it was 43% Democrat and 37% Republican. That's how bad Obamacare is affecting the Democrats right now and as more problems come out, it will indeed get worse. When the small business health insurance fiasco starts to kick in in late 2014, it will probably drop another 5%.

Hairy Jello 12-10-2013 02:33 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
I've been sayin' for a while now that ObamaCare is gonna hurt Dems in next year's midterms. People don't take kindly to being lied to their faces over and over again. Dems may not lose the Senate but the Republicans are definitely keeping the House. No question about it.

lurch907 12-10-2013 02:57 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Polls are so worthless, why does anybody pay people to do this.

Here we have a prime example of a meaningless poll.
-The poll was done on a national level but congress critters are not elected that way, they are elected by district. If district A & B are 51% dem 49% rep while C is 80%rep and 20% dem, you have more people voting rep but end up with 2 dems.
-The poll is generic rep v. dem., to be even remotely accurate it would have to involve actual people. The people surveyed may think they'll vote republican until the reps nominate somebody they've never heard of or some a$$hat they can't stand.

I implore thinking people everywhere; stop giving any credence to political polls and maybe they'll die out.

40yearfan 12-10-2013 06:10 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lurch907 (Post 624704)
Polls are so worthless, why does anybody pay people to do this.

Here we have a prime example of a meaningless poll.
-The poll was done on a national level but congress critters are not elected that way, they are elected by district. If district A & B are 51% dem 49% rep while C is 80%rep and 20% dem, you have more people voting rep but end up with 2 dems.
-The poll is generic rep v. dem., to be even remotely accurate it would have to involve actual people. The people surveyed may think they'll vote republican until the reps nominate somebody they've never heard of or some a$$hat they can't stand.

I implore thinking people everywhere; stop giving any credence to political polls and maybe they'll die out.

In this instance, it shows how Obamacare has affected the Democrats in the minds of the voting public. It isn't supposed to represent individual races, it is just general knowledge of how the tide of opinion is going in this country and does not try to make predictions of how the 2014 election will go.

lurch907 12-10-2013 07:11 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 40yearfan (Post 624802)
In this instance, it shows how Obamacare has affected the Democrats in the minds of the voting public.

But it doesn't show that. The poll doesn't ask "why" they would vote dem or rep. or at least it doesn't say in the article.
This is what I'm talking about, slant the question the right way and you can make any poll come out to the outcome you are looking for or, like you seem to have done, infer a meaning the poll doesn't actually give.
I don't subscribe to the site you linked so I can't see the full article, but before lending any creedence one must look at the poll demographics.
-Did they ask a proper sampling of dems, reps, and independents?
-Did they get an accurate spread of men vs. women?
-Did they ask a proper geographical spread?
-Employed vs. unemployed?
-Educated vs. uneducated?
-On public assistance vs. not?
Or any one of a hundred other factors that would effect the results, particularly in a poll as vague as this one.

40yearfan 12-11-2013 02:03 AM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lurch907 (Post 624824)
But it doesn't show that. The poll doesn't ask "why" they would vote dem or rep. or at least it doesn't say in the article.
This is what I'm talking about, slant the question the right way and you can make any poll come out to the outcome you are looking for or, like you seem to have done, infer a meaning the poll doesn't actually give.
I don't subscribe to the site you linked so I can't see the full article, but before lending any creedence one must look at the poll demographics.
-Did they ask a proper sampling of dems, reps, and independents?
-Did they get an accurate spread of men vs. women?
-Did they ask a proper geographical spread?
-Employed vs. unemployed?
-Educated vs. uneducated?
-On public assistance vs. not?
Or any one of a hundred other factors that would effect the results, particularly in a poll as vague as this one.

That is fine and dandy if you are relying on this poll to set future actions, but that's not what it's about. All it tells you is that people are changing their minds due to the Obamacare screw up. Since it has no bearing on future actions, it is a snapshot in time. Trying to make it into something it isn't is not appropriate. I just don't understand the heartache you have with this. It's not like anyone is relying on it.

lurch907 12-11-2013 10:29 AM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 40yearfan (Post 624961)
That is fine and dandy if you are relying on this poll to set future actions, but that's not what it's about. All it tells you is that people are changing their minds due to the Obamacare screw up. Since it has no bearing on future actions, it is a snapshot in time. Trying to make it into something it isn't is not appropriate. I just don't understand the heartache you have with this. It's not like anyone is relying on it.

But you are making it into something it isn't. Twice now you have said that the poll indicates people are changing their minds due to obamacare, but the poll indicates nothing of the kind because it doesn't ask "why". The only thing this poll may show is that people are starting to lean republican, but that even unlikely because its doubtful the 3500 people polled are a proper cross-section of the country.
Basicly this poll, like most others, is worthless.

40yearfan 12-11-2013 12:32 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lurch907 (Post 624997)
But you are making it into something it isn't. Twice now you have said that the poll indicates people are changing their minds due to obamacare, but the poll indicates nothing of the kind because it doesn't ask "why". The only thing this poll may show is that people are starting to lean republican, but that even unlikely because its doubtful the 3500 people polled are a proper cross-section of the country.
Basicly this poll, like most others, is worthless.

It's information. How you process it is up to each individual.

lurch907 12-11-2013 01:40 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 40yearfan (Post 625031)
It's information. How you process it is up to each individual.

It's very little information and drawing conclusion it doesn't support makes no sense.

saltwn 12-11-2013 02:25 PM

Re: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 40yearfan (Post 624645)
Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports

In the first part of November it was 43% Democrat and 37% Republican. That's how bad Obamacare is affecting the Democrats right now and as more problems come out, it will indeed get worse. When the small business health insurance fiasco starts to kick in in late 2014, it will probably drop another 5%.

And Paul Mall outsold Salem this week.
It's all about advertising.


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