Now that we aren't the financial big dogs anymore in the global economy, and we owe much of our debt to China, I advise that our leaders and fed officials be much more wary. Our practices could come back to bite us in the back side.



BEIJING | Wed Nov 3, 2010 10:33pm EDT
U.S. dollar printing is huge risk -China c.bank adviser | Reuters

If you haven't yet begun to stock up on food, this would be a good time to begin. It's also a good time to buy any clothes made from cotton - those prices will spike around February. Monetizing debt is NEVER a good idea. Need proof? Research 'Weimar Republic' and 'hyperinflation' ... it's coming. You can bet your ass that 'The UN' is giving thanks for that little device called the PRINTING PRESS ...

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I would say I have to agree with the Chinese's on this...

And sense we can't stock up on everything we need for a very long time. Even those that try will face hardship in the chaos to come if hyper inflation does hit the US..

Can a new Congress do the right things fast enough?

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Imo, that's one of the primary problems. There's not much that they can do without causing some pain and discomfort somewhere along the line. If we keep printing money, it devalues and puts us at a risk of inflation, and with money already tight for lots of folks, this can spell disaster. If they don't do anything at all, then we will kind of stay put where we are until we start producing enough to re-generate income and prosperity. Even with a new House, I don't believe entrepreneurs and other investors have confidence in the market right now. Then there's that problem of 80% of our job market being service industry jobs. We need material products that sell on the market, but I don't know where they will be generated in the global economy.

Well China has a huge problem if we print a lot of money and hyperinflate the dollar. That being that all our debt, all that debt that China bought from us (suckers), is written in OUR dollar. So huge inflation means they get paid back (well assuming we pay it back) in dollars worth less than the dollars they used to purchase it. It's one reason they in particular do not want to see massive printing of money.

It of course has huge effects on us as well since we've lost most of our industrial capacity. But that can also be built back up.

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Oh yes they can do a lot to stop most of the printing. As I pointed out in another thread, these is that dream for a new Embassy which will cost 512 Million in Afghanistan..

Which doesn't need any add ons as we don't know what lies ahead over there, as usual.

And then there is Iraq. 50,000 troops with equipment eats away at the costs of the WoT.

Yes things there are getting wort but because they are playing the political game for more power...

We have no part in that game so lets leave NOW!

And Afghan we have the most boots on the ground, why not start pulling some out.

As the number of Taliban and other insurgents has been around 20,000 to 30,000.

That is billions saved in two places we aren't even welcome in.

DOD can loss plenty in other areas like R&D.. I'm sure Billo would agree with me on the above.

And then there is the Obama HC package that most of America wants it to go away.

Now that saves trillions to go along with the billions..

And then there is the always unhealty entitlements programs. Now I don't know how much or where to start cutting in these programs.

But they need to be addressed.. Not all need to be cut but can be brought up to date.

__________________
"There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation... One is by sword... The other is by debt."

John Adams 1826

In what way do you propose that it can built back up? I'd love to believe that, but it seems that we have become largely priced out of the market.

There is no 'built back up' in the sense we'll start to do the things we have already exported.

In fact, and I'll point this out again, the US is STILL the largest producer of manufactured goods in the world!

That WILL change or maybe won't. China's exploding population will soon make it the largest consumer of natural resources in the world, and as it's affluence rises it may become the largest economy and largest consumer of manufactured goods and SERVICES in the world.

The US has plenty of natural resources and though some might denigrate it, a service industry that is second to none.

One of the things we do in the private sector better than everyone else is logistics. Hate on the service industry all you want, but there is a reason that UPS and FedEx thrive even while being forced to compete against government owned parcel carriers.

There's a reason why, though some might hate it, Starbucks owns and operates a coffee shop on almost every block in Manhattan: you can get what you want, when you want it (quickly), at a quality level and price you are agreeable to, better than ever before. A line in a Starbucks moves fast and you can be on your way with a cup 'o joe for a price you are willing to pay.

Finally, let's look at what the US has done better than it's competitors over the years: Innovation.

Despite competitive disadvantage over the years, what country has brought more new concepts, technology, and in the long run products to the market over the last 30 years, 20 years, 10 years, than the US?

As long as we keep our laws reasonable, we will have another Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and so on emerge.

We have people who understand how to profit from good business models, great ideas, and the greatest concentration of intellectual wealth seen in the world since the Ancient Greeks.

We're not doomed to suddenly become Rome falling in day, decade, or even century.

We're not assured to still be dominant. That's impossible over the long haul.

Germany and Japan rose from the ash heaps (to an extent due to our largesse).

They did it quickly, NO?

China, India, and to a lesser extent Brazil will grow, prosper, become more affluent, and demand more ....

[b]of what we already have ... individual affluence and self determination![b]

I'm dumbfounded sometimes. Isn't this what we always wanted them to be?

Yes, economically they're improving. Yes statistically that means we're declining. SO?

There's a lot of short term fear out there these days. There's not a lot of long-term thinking.

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I don't hate or denigrate the service industry at all- it's just that from what I've been reading and hearing, it comprises 80% of our job market these days. That seems to be incompatible with the US industry generating enough income to pay ever-increasing tax needs for the feds and the states as well.

Quite the opposite for me- I am long-term thinking, and what I can see long-term doesn't look good, considering our debt, our shrinking tax base, and an increasing government trend toward control and regulation of the private sector.

I understand your concerns. As I noted perhaps in a different thread, our manufactured goods industry is still second to none in the world today. However our 'plan' to generate enough tax revenue to pay for our supposed 'obligated' entitlements is completley out of my scope. To your concerns this has to be addressed through political and economic consideration.

Great observations, IMHO lizzie. Debt concerns me most because as a numbers guy all we have to go on is rates and trend. We can't anticipate innovation.

We all were told Japan would take over back in the 80's. Now we've shifted to China's eventual dominance, India's influence...

All I know for sure and everyone else should as well is that ... and this is an intentional pause to get everyone to listen ... whatever the US USED TO DOMINATE IN, IS ... NEVER ... COMING .... BACK.

No big tobacco, no big textile, no bit auto ... no big whatever your father's generation made. No one should have grand delusions that daddy is going to get his factory car painting job back at a plant manufacturing I PHONE 5's.

Unless of course you're really young. Big new technology? Big new communication? Big presentation? Big logistics? Big ... and this is going to be HUGE ...and not just big ... luxury.

IDK, but if I had to bet on ONE THING heading into the global economy going forward it would be that the entire world is about to become more affluent. They're going to catch up to us fat and happy Americans.

They're going to BE more service based. As the Chinese and Indians and other markets emerge one should be sure to position themselves to 'service' those emerging markets.

One has to assume that to your original point lizzie, if 80% of the job market might be service based, we might become the leaders and innovation experts in JUST THAT as well.

I know you might want to think of that in terms of having better trained drive through fast food window clerks, but I see the emerging 'service industry' ... with it's MASSIVELY GROWING market, as an opportunity rather than a disgrace.

Again, it's just one aspect. Like I have said, the US IS STILL THE LARGEST PRODUCER OF MANUFACTURED GOODS IN THE WORLD.

I don't mean to scream, but I think some are getting to the point of hysterical in their doom and gloom.

Take a second to consider what I just said: The United States MAKES more STUFF than any other country in the world. CHINA has MORE THAN 4X our population. We EXPORT twice of what Japan does and more than half of what the ENTIRE European Union does. All those number are based on FOB costs.

Let's take a hand survey. Not meaning to humiliate anyone, but who without googling is willing to admit they don't even know what the term FOB means?

But I digress...

The world as we know isn't going to end.

It's actually going on and as long as we don't get European IMHO everything will work out.

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Dudes ... you're just NOT THAT MUCH ****ING SMARTER than all of us. GET OVER YOURSELVES!
-- Me, to President Obama and the rest of his self-loving amateur staff.