Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > Political Forums > International Forum
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

International Forum Discuss 'Bad and unexpected': Germany probably just went into a recession at the Political Forums; 'Bad and unexpected': Germany probably just went into a recession Germany may be in recession, economists said, after they trawled ...

Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 01-09-2019, 03:22 PM
saltwn's Avatar
PW Enlightenment
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Esto perpetua
Posts: 88,103
Thanks: 57,077
Thanked 26,857 Times in 19,307 Posts
Send a message via AIM to saltwn Send a message via MSN to saltwn Send a message via Yahoo to saltwn
Default 'Bad and unexpected': Germany probably just went into a recession

'Bad and unexpected': Germany probably just went into a recession

Germany may be in recession, economists said, after they trawled through an unexpectedly horrible set of industrial and manufacturing data published on Wednesday's from the world's fourth-largest economy.

German industrial production fell by -1.9% in November.
Year over year, production hit a low of -4.6% the biggest trough since the 2008 crisis.
Germany's exports fell -0.4% month over month in November, the government reported today.
Suddenly, Europe is faltering.

Germany is the largest European economy and its leaders have an outsized influence on the rest of the EU and the European Central Bank. A recession in Germany could easily drag down France and Italy and the latter country is already likely in a recession of its own. Greece is still struggling to recover from its debt crisis and neighbouring Turkey also dropped into a steep recession, triggered by the devaluation of its currency.
Here is what analysts are saying:

"Even if order books and backlogs of work still look good, Germany likely flirted with a technical recession in H2. We have revised our Q4 GDP forecast to 0.0%." Daniel Harenberg of Oxford Economics.

"The decline was broad-based across sectors, with no bright spots: manufacturing fell by 1.8% m-o-m with the consumer goods sector once again being the major drag (-4.1% m-o-m vs. -3.3% in Oct.) ... Today's data were both bad and unexpected. A technical recession in German industry now seems likely." Stefan Schilbe of HSBC.

"Germany likely was in recession in H2 2018 ... Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany provided alarming evidence of a much more severe slowdown in the second half of last year than economists had initially expected. Industrial production plunged 1.9% month-to-month in November, driving the year-over-year rate down to a decade-low of -4.6%. The headline was hit by a perfect storm across all sectors." analyst Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macreconomics.
The collapse of German industry was so steep and so sudden that Vistesen told clients he almost doesn't believe the data: "The crash in the year-over-year rate is far in excess of anything remotely believable, at least using survey data as a yardstick," he told clients in a note seen by Business Insider.
Affecting the US the first thing we'll feel will be luxury items ;ike cars we sell to Germany.
On a more positive note, people still can't order dialysis w/o a referral.
Reply With Quote

and, bad, germany, into, just, probably, recession, unexpected, went

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:54 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0