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Health, Wellness, Sex and Body Discuss CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected at the General Discussion; CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...han-projected/ Appearing Monday on AM 1030 KVOI ...

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Old 04-19-2020, 12:23 PM
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Default CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...han-projected/

Appearing Monday on AM 1030 KVOI Radio, Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), predicted that the death toll from the Chinese coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than the models have projected due to Americans following social distancing recommendations.

HOST: We were talking about some of the models, whether it’s from the imperial college guy in England or the University of Washington. Thank god some of these numbers are falling short of some of these catastrophic numbers. Tell me about the dynamic of the modeling and how it helps and influences decision making and then, when the reality comes in, how does the decision making transform?

DR. ROBERT REDFIELD: I think it’s really important. First, models are only as good as their assumptions. Obviously, there was a lot unknown about this virus. The ability to actively make a lot of assumptions was much wider than if this was an Influenza B outbreak. Second thing, I will say from a public health perspective, to me, the real value of models is to have a model and then try to understand — if I invest resources here, what does that do to the model? If I invest in intervention strategies here, what does that do to the model? It’s a way of beta testing how you’re going to respond and what it does to the different models. And models should never be used to assume that we have a number. You saw those numbers are quite staggering. You’ve got 200,000 to 2 million Americans are losing their lives before the fall. That’s a pretty staggering number.

HOST: Are throwing those kind of numbers out actually helpful because what they do is scare the hell out of everyone to social distance? Is that the purpose?

DR. REDFIELD: I think different people may look at it in different ways in terms of transparency. CDC had models early on. We didn’t really publicize the models. We used them internally to understand deviation strategies. I think part of the importance of getting the American public’s attention that these models did, we really need the American public to be fully engaged now with great rigor and vigilance on the social distancing. As you pointed out, those models that were done, they assume only about 50 percent of the American public would pay attention to the recommendations. In fact, what we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart. And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models.
But I have to wonder, could one of the assumptions be that "social distancing" made the numbers so low?
can we find the answer to that scientifically?

And weren't there models that predicted these far lower numbers in the 1st place?
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Old 04-19-2020, 12:34 PM
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Default Re: CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projec

April 7
After Updating Predictions on Sunday Latest IHME Predictions Already 20% Over Actual Numbers — May Be Looking at 46,000 Total US Coronavirus Deaths or Less

Last TUESDAY Coronavirus Task Force Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx pushed the talking point that by completely locking down the US economy and American public, the US government and Coronavirus task force “experts” were able to cut the total coronavirus deaths in the United States from 1 to 2.2 million deaths down to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

That was a stunning update. They revised their numbers down by around 90%!
You’d think that would have made a few headlines?
This was based on “models” by her chosen scientific “experts” — Chris Murray and the IHME.
Here is the chart Dr. Birx discussed during the daily coronavirus press conference at the White House.


It shows an estimated 2.2 million US deaths.
Again — this was at the press conference 6 days ago!
There is not a single country in the world today with over 16,000 total coronavirus deaths.

On Sunday night the IMHE cut their numbers in half.

Today the IMHE model used by the CDC and Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci estimate the total US coronavirus deaths to be 81,766 by August 4th.
And 81,000 by May 21st.
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Old 04-19-2020, 01:49 PM
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Default Re: CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projec

Quote:
Originally Posted by mr wonder View Post
CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...han-projected/

Appearing Monday on AM 1030 KVOI Radio, Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), predicted that the death toll from the Chinese coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than the models have projected due to Americans following social distancing recommendations.

HOST: We were talking about some of the models, whether it’s from the imperial college guy in England or the University of Washington. Thank god some of these numbers are falling short of some of these catastrophic numbers. Tell me about the dynamic of the modeling and how it helps and influences decision making and then, when the reality comes in, how does the decision making transform?

DR. ROBERT REDFIELD: I think it’s really important. First, models are only as good as their assumptions. Obviously, there was a lot unknown about this virus. The ability to actively make a lot of assumptions was much wider than if this was an Influenza B outbreak. Second thing, I will say from a public health perspective, to me, the real value of models is to have a model and then try to understand — if I invest resources here, what does that do to the model? If I invest in intervention strategies here, what does that do to the model? It’s a way of beta testing how you’re going to respond and what it does to the different models. And models should never be used to assume that we have a number. You saw those numbers are quite staggering. You’ve got 200,000 to 2 million Americans are losing their lives before the fall. That’s a pretty staggering number.

HOST: Are throwing those kind of numbers out actually helpful because what they do is scare the hell out of everyone to social distance? Is that the purpose?

DR. REDFIELD: I think different people may look at it in different ways in terms of transparency. CDC had models early on. We didn’t really publicize the models. We used them internally to understand deviation strategies. I think part of the importance of getting the American public’s attention that these models did, we really need the American public to be fully engaged now with great rigor and vigilance on the social distancing. As you pointed out, those models that were done, they assume only about 50 percent of the American public would pay attention to the recommendations. In fact, what we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart. And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models.
But I have to wonder, could one of the assumptions be that "social distancing" made the numbers so low?
can we find the answer to that scientifically?


And weren't there models that predicted these far lower numbers in the 1st place?
The answer to the bolded will be based on what agenda people are trying to direct.

I am in both camps: There is no way that I could see the death toll being even close to what was hyped, and social distancing may have been a positive factor in helping keeping that number low. What needs to be considered is the overall cost of the hype, the exposure of the greedy, mouth breathing idiots (that's a large, varied group) and they annoying blather of Trump.

Unfortunately, common sense cannot be purchased, and those with common sense, would treat COVID like any flu, but there are those who, similar to the Spring Break crowd who were in the 'not gonna happen to me!' group.

Enough already, before the economic damage is irreparable. It's going to be a long haul back up the hill.
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