COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

GetAClue · #1 (**permalink**) 03-23-2020, 10:04 AM

I ran across this particularly interesting article this morning. The author analyzed the numbers from the "CDC, WHO, NIH, NHS, University of Oxford, Stanford, Harvard, NEJM, JAMA, and several others)." His general conclusion is that this is being severely over hyped and blown out of proportion by the media.

While the article is too long to post, I will post some of the things that I found interesting.

For our leftist posters, while I really don't expect you to read this as it would require some time and objectivity, at least have the courtesy to refrain from the typical name calling and dismissing of the facts just because you disagree with them.

Quote:

After watching the outbreak of COVID-19 for the past two months, I’ve followed the pace of the infection, its severity, and how our world is tackling the virus. While we should be concerned and diligent, the situation has dramatically elevated to a mob-like fear spreading faster than COVID-19 itself.

When 13% of Americans believe they are currently infected with COVID-19 (mathematically impossible), full-on panic is blocking our ability to think clearly and determine how to deploy our resources to stop this virus. Over three-fourths of Americans are scared of what we are doing to our society through law and hysteria, not of infection or spreading COVID-19 to those most vulnerable.

Quote:

On a per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking.

Every country has a different population size which skews aggregate and cumulative case comparisons. By controlling for population, you can properly weigh the number of cases in the context of the local population size. Viruses don’t acknowledge our human borders. The US population is 5.5X greater than Italy, 6X larger than South Korea, and 25% the size of China. Comparing the US total number of cases in absolute terms is rather silly.

Rank ordering based on the total number of cases shows that the US on a per-capita basis is significantly lower than the top six nations by case volume. On a 1 million citizen per-capita basis, the US moves to above mid-pack of all countries and rising, with similar case volume as Singapore (385 cases), Cyprus (75 cases), and United Kingdom(3,983 cases). This is data as of March 20th, 2020.

Quote:

COVID-19 is spreading, but probably not accelerating

Growth rates are tricky to track over time. Smaller numbers are easy to move than larger numbers. As an example, GDP growth of 3% for the US means billions of dollars while 3% for Bermuda means millions. Generally, growth rates decline over time, but the nominal increase may still be significant. This holds true of daily confirmed case increases. Daily growth rates declined over time across all countries regardless of particular policy solutions, such as shutting the borders or social distancing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/cov...-over-hysteria

GottaGo · #2 (**permalink**) 03-23-2020, 01:03 PM

I've used another virus as the basis of my opinion in several places. I have Epstein Barr virus, also known as CEBV, I've had it for 45 years. Recently, they've added Active to the name for those in a flare up.

Pretty much everyone has the virus. It's what causes mononucleosis. For most people, the virus lays dormant, or if it does flare up, it can cause debilitating fatigue, memory fuzziness and lack of appitite, and then goes dormant again. Some of us, it became active and started being called various names, Chronic Fatigue, Yuppie Flu, Lake Tahoe Epidemic. Yes, it was contagious in a number of ways, but usually transmitted via saliva (hence, 'kissing disease').

https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/di...irus-infection

Where is the panic, the isolation, the lock downs? Where are the hoarders, the survivalists, the government bail outs?

While I'm taking reasonable precautions, as I do with virtually every flu season, I don't go into isolation, hoard TP (of all things, really??) and treat other people like it's the Black Plague.

The media is feeding on the panic, the hysteria, and some political parties are just shy of gleeful in the idea that the economy took a hit, in hopes that it reduces the chances of Trump being re-elected. Perhaps if the Democrats actually had a candidate that could be a challenge to the incumbent, they might not need to have the media make a blast out of this thing, and while taking precautions, people could live relatively normal lives day to day.

My 2 cents.

FrancSevin · #3 (**permalink**) 03-23-2020, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GottaGo

I've used another virus as the basis of my opinion in several places. I have Epstein Barr virus, also known as CEBV, I've had it for 45 years. Recently, they've added Active to the name for those in a flare up.

Pretty much everyone has the virus. It's what causes mononucleosis. For most people, the virus lays dormant, or if it does flare up, it can cause debilitating fatigue, memory fuzziness and lack of appitite, and then goes dormant again. Some of us, it became active and started being called various names, Chronic Fatigue, Yuppie Flu, Lake Tahoe Epidemic. Yes, it was contagious in a number of ways, but usually transmitted via saliva (hence, 'kissing disease').

[url]https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/diseases/9534/chronic-active-epstein-

Where is the panic, the isolation, the lock downs? Where are the hoarders, the survivalists, the government bail outs?

While I'm taking reasonable precautions, as I do with virtually every flu season, I don't go into isolation, hoard TP (of all things, really??) and treat other people like it's the Black Plague.

The media is feeding on the panic, the hysteria, and some political parties are just shy of gleeful in the idea that the economy took a hit, in hopes that it reduces the chances of Trump being re-elected. Perhaps if the Democrats actually had a candidate that could be a challenge to the incumbent, they might not need to have the media make a blast out of this thing, and while taking precautions, people could live relatively normal lives day to day.

My 2 cents.

Constant_Slothrop · #4 (**permalink**) 04-01-2020, 09:29 AM

I think it's now well accepted by just about everyone that this article was a disaster, written by someone who didn't know what he was talking about but around here you never know. So, here's a link to a twitter thread from a University of Washington biologist explaining why this article was just dangerous bullshlt that badly mangled and misinterpreted the data.

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...22140559503360

GetAClue · #5 (**permalink**) 04-01-2020, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop

I think it's now well accepted by just about everyone that this article was a disaster, written by someone who didn't know what he was talking about but around here you never know. So, here's a link to a twitter thread from a University of Washington biologist explaining why this article was just dangerous bullshlt that badly mangled and misinterpreted the data.

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...22140559503360

As I am currently working, I cannot get to the tweet you mentioned. If you could, please post the comments for all to read. Thanks.

saltwn · #6 (**permalink**) 04-01-2020, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GottaGo

I've used another virus as the basis of my opinion in several places. I have Epstein Barr virus, also known as CEBV, I've had it for 45 years. Recently, they've added Active to the name for those in a flare up.

Pretty much everyone has the virus. It's what causes mononucleosis. For most people, the virus lays dormant, or if it does flare up, it can cause debilitating fatigue, memory fuzziness and lack of appitite, and then goes dormant again. Some of us, it became active and started being called various names, Chronic Fatigue, Yuppie Flu, Lake Tahoe Epidemic. Yes, it was contagious in a number of ways, but usually transmitted via saliva (hence, 'kissing disease').

https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/di...irus-infection

Where is the panic, the isolation, the lock downs? Where are the hoarders, the survivalists, the government bail outs?

While I'm taking reasonable precautions, as I do with virtually every flu season, I don't go into isolation, hoard TP (of all things, really??) and treat other people like it's the Black Plague.

The media is feeding on the panic, the hysteria, and some political parties are just shy of gleeful in the idea that the economy took a hit, in hopes that it reduces the chances of Trump being re-elected. Perhaps if the Democrats actually had a candidate that could be a challenge to the incumbent, they might not need to have the media make a blast out of this thing, and while taking precautions, people could live relatively normal lives day to day.

My 2 cents.

Epstein Barr
is a known virus
covid-19 is an unknown virus

the spanish flu or 1918 flu was an unknown virus
covid may follow any benign path or rage like it's 1918, given the same nonchalance regarding social contact.
it's what we don't know.
I for one can stay at home and be thankful I'm alive. I know it's harder for working people who can't work from home. I pray they will choose their safety and that of others, but I do understand the rent must be paid.
I myself am thankful I live in a fairly remote rural town. still heartbreaking choices were made not to see relatives right now even though I could use that pick-me-up with all my health issues lately.
This happened while the world has internet and that's a help.

saltwn · #7 (**permalink**) 04-01-2020, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GetAClue

As I am currently working, I cannot get to the tweet you mentioned. If you could, please post the comments for all to read. Thanks.

I was going to post it for you but it is a series of tweets. sorry

Constant_Slothrop · #8 (**permalink**) 04-01-2020, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GetAClue

As I am currently working, I cannot get to the tweet you mentioned. If you could, please post the comments for all to read. Thanks.

It’s a very long twitter thread that isn’t easily cut and pasted. I’d suggest reading the tweets directly when you have a chance.

Here’s another link that may be easier to access: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...559503360.html

GetAClue · #9 (**permalink**) 04-01-2020, 12:45 PM

Thanks. It is very long and I will have to wait until I have more time to read it, after I am done with work for the day.

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