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foundit66 07-25-2015 04:16 PM

New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rates o
 
Quote:

Last week, amid heightened scrutiny of gun violence in the wake of the Charleston church shootings, a group of researchers released the latest study on the correlation between firearm prevalence and crime rates. Their findings only add to the growing evidence against the “More Guns, Less Crime” hypothesis.

The authors of “Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime in the U.S.” are researchers from Boston’s Children Hospital and the Harvard School of Public Health. They set out to gauge the effect of firearm-ownership rates on specific types of violent gun crimes. To do so, they used national gun-ownership surveys conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and criminal data taken from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), a large annual database administered by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

The data covers all 50 states for the years 2001, 2002, and 2004, the only years for which the CDC firearm-ownership statistics are available. The study then sorted the states into quintiles according to their level of firearm ownership. After controlling for a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors, the authors analyzed each group of states and their rates of the following crimes: robbery committed with a firearm, nonfatal assault with a firearm, firearm homicide, and overall homicide.

According to the “More Guns, Less Crime” hypothesis, states with higher levels of gun ownership would expect to see lower crime rates in those categories. By contrast, the study found that states with the lowest rates of firearm ownership (Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, California, Florida, Illinois, and Maryland) had significantly lower rates of firearm-related assault and robbery, firearm homicide, and overall homicide.

States with the highest gun-ownership levels (Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Arizona, West Virginia, North Dakota, Idaho, Mississippi, and Alabama), meanwhile, had 6.8 times the rate of firearm assaults, 2.8 times the rate of firearm homicides, and twice the rate of overall homicides than states with the lowest gun-ownership levels.
Study Links Higher Gun Ownership to Higher Violent Crime

Color me unsurprised... :rolls

Joe Shoe 07-25-2015 07:23 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
One part of a sentence that holds so much importance, barely mentioned .... :yes

"After controlling for a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors ...."

That's a major deal--and of course, nothing given on how they went about that process. :no And the link to the study only goes to an abstract, NOT the study itself. Sorry, just not enough detail ABOUT the study and how it was conducted here to make any objective judgments re. the study. :shrug

http://mitchjackson.com/wp-content/u...he-details.jpg

foundit66 07-25-2015 07:39 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Shoe (Post 766852)
One part of a sentence that holds so much importance, barely mentioned .... :yes
"After controlling for a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors ...."
That's a major deal--and of course, nothing given on how they went about that process.

You're trying to make an argument out of your ignorance. :rolls
Ensuring such factors are held constant for evaluation of the correlation is a standard technique necessary to ensure that you're measuring JUST A vs X and not A, B, C and D vs X.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Shoe (Post 766852)
And the link to the study only goes to an abstract, NOT the study itself. Sorry, just not enough detail ABOUT the study and how it was conducted here to make any objective judgments re. the study.

:no
The link to the study does NOT only go to an abstract.
People who log in can access the study itself.
It says so right there. But Joe is lying about that... :rolls

Joe Shoe 07-25-2015 08:09 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by foundit66 (Post 766856)
You're trying to make an argument out of your ignorance. :rolls

Nope, it's over scant details ... :yes

Quote:

Originally Posted by foundit66 (Post 766856)
Ensuring such factors are held constant for evaluation of the correlation is a standard technique necessary to ensure that you're measuring JUST A vs X and not A, B, C and D vs X.

Thank you for blurbing about how that is SUPPOSED to work. (Which everyone probably already knows.) Now show how that was done correctly in the STUDY. Oh wait .... you can't, 'cause you haven't even actually READ the damn thing at this point, have you? :no You just found an article about it that says what you want it to, and so you posted it without reading a bit of it except parts that were quoted. :shrug
Color me unsurprised. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by foundit66 (Post 766856)
The link to the study does NOT only go to an abstract.People who log in can access the study itself.

$31.50 to get access for 24 hours ... and you really expect anyone here to believe you read it before you posted this thread?
:funny

I'll save you some trouble and money, Foundit ...

HERE is the correct link that will work. :yes Now you can go and read the actual study you posted about. LOL

Joe Shoe 07-25-2015 08:18 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Now, since we now have ACTUAL full access to the article to fact/procedure-check, here is a separate article showing how this study falls short and FAILS to show what it claims .... and as already pointed out in this thread to be where the devil is often in the details over 'studies' like that, it shows there are issues in their CONTROL variables. :shrug
"But their paper (available here) isn’t testing what they claim. It isn’t testing whether increased gun ownership causes crime rates to increase. The study is far too simplistic and doesn’t include even the basic control variables that are typically included in other crime studies.

Here is a simple example. Many people point to the fact that the UK has both a lower homicide and gun ownership rate than the United States. The claim is often made then that the reason that they have a lower homicide rate is because they have fewer guns. However, this ignores the fact that the UK homicide rate actually went up after their 1997 handgun ban or after their other very strict earlier gun control regulations. The UK homicide rate still remained low relative to the US, but it was higher than it otherwise would have been.

The point here is simple: there are lots of reasons why the UK homicide rate was lower than that in the US before they even had gun control. The question that needs to be asked is how the UK homicide rate changed relative to that in the US after its gun control regulations went into effect. To do this, you have to control for the fact that the UK had a much lower homicide rate to begin with. Statistically you do that by having what are called geographic “fixed effects” (dummy variables that pick up the average difference in each jurisdiction that you are examining). Any test would also do the same thing by year so as to account for any national trends in crime rates. So, for example, crime might have been falling nationally, but was it falling relatively more in those states that were getting more gun ownership.

The controls that are being used in this paper can’t begin to account for the differences in crime rates."
More at Evaluating new research "Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime*in the U.S.: An Ecological Study" By Monuteaux, Lee, Hemenway, Mannix, Fleegler - Crime Prevention Research Center crimeresearch.org

MrLiberty 07-25-2015 09:22 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Actually if you look at the FBI crime rate statistics crime has been decreasing for the most part. However, crime is rising in most major U.S. cities, especially those with strict gun control laws, and mostly run by liberals.

cnredd 07-25-2015 10:24 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Quote:

Their findings only add to the growing evidence against the “More Guns, Less Crime” hypothesis
Misleading...

Nobody has a "More guns, Less crime" hypothesis...:no

But a whole bunch of people have a "More RESPONSIBLE gun ownership, Less crime" hypothesis...:yes :clap :danceparty

If you gave a gun to everyone in a sleepy, Southern town with a population of 8,000, you'd have zero gun related crime (And there's a good chance everyone in that town already had a gun....or seven)...:yes

But if you gave everyone a gun in some liberal bastion like Chicago, that town would have 16 people left by next Thursday...

762nato 07-25-2015 10:48 PM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
If availability of firearms is the cause of crime and mass shootings then explain why crime was lower and there were no mass shootings in the decades preceding the advent of gun control in the 1960's.

Also by virtue of the fact the study comes from Harvard ( the university that jumped to hire convicted Russian spy Alger Hiss when he got out of prison) tells me the study is weighted to show results that support the left wing agenda.

WallyWager 07-26-2015 01:03 AM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 762nato (Post 766883)
If availability of firearms is the cause of crime and mass shootings then explain why crime was lower and there were no mass shootings in the decades preceding the advent of gun control in the 1960's.

Also by virtue of the fact the study comes from Harvard ( the university that jumped to hire convicted Russian spy Alger Hiss when he got out of prison) tells me the study is weighted to show results that support the left wing agenda.

"it's from Harvard" isn't evidence of anything other than your own bias.

762nato 07-26-2015 07:27 AM

Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 766903)
"it's from Harvard" isn't evidence of anything other than your own bias.

I presented evidence of Harvard's bias.

Why didn't you address the other statement in that post?


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