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Elections Discuss The senate races in 2020 at the Political Forums; A recent poll has shown the Democratic nominee, Jaime Harrison, tied with Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. However, I ...

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Old 09-19-2020, 07:30 PM
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Default The senate races in 2020

A recent poll has shown the Democratic nominee, Jaime Harrison, tied with Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. However, I seriously doubt the likelihood that the election will be this close. I predict that Lindsey Graham will win rather easily.

Texas and Georgia are two other states that the Democrats have their eyes on in 2020. But they should remain safely in the GOP column, in my opinion.

Some other states are not quite so certain:

In Colorado, for instance, I predict that the Democratic nominee, John Hickenlooper, will ward off a fast-closing run by the incumbent, Cory Gardner. (I hope that I am wrong here.)

North Carolina is more uncertain. I predict that whichever presidential candidate wins here, the senatorial candidate of the same party will win also. (Okay, that does not really nail it down; but it is the best that I can do.)

In Montana, the Democrat, Steve Bullock (currently the governor), is making a strong challenge to the incumbent senator, Republican Steve Daines. But I expect Donald Trump to carry Montana, rather easily--regardless of whether he wins the general election or not. And a sitting senator almost never loses when the presidential candidate, of the same party, carries his state. (The paucity of ticket-splitting nowadays may have something to do with that.) So I expect Bullock to weather the storm, and pull out a victory here.

Easily the most vulnerable sitting senator is Doug Jones (D-Ala). He should be defeated by his rival, Tommy Tuberville. (This election should not even be close.)

Anyway, for what it is worth, these are my election-night predictions.
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Old 09-19-2020, 08:33 PM
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Default Re: The senate races in 2020

I like good analyses like these, but you know imma quibble lol.

Agreed on South Carolina, for now. Jamie Harrison is raising a lot of money and has a pretty good operation, but I still think the state is too red and Lindsey Graham is too entrenched of an incumbent to overcome. But there is an outside chance depending on whether or not Democrats can harness the potential from Ginsberg's death and Graham's eagerness to replace her with a right-wing justice. Big if, cuz they're sh-t at it.

I think Colorado is too far gone for Cory Gardner tbh. There's been no poll showing a close race, and he's not well liked in the state. Plus it's a presidential year in a blue-trending state with a well known challenger. Barring a miracle, get your fork ready because Gardner is probably done.

Speaking of done, Arizona's probably flipping blue. Martha McSally just isn't finding a footing, and Mark Kelly is running circles around her in both polling and fundraising. I honestly believe he'll not only win, but help Joe Biden over the edge and get him those 11 electoral votes.

Also speaking of done, I agree that Alabama's flipping back red. I see no win scenario for Doug Jones. And unlike South Carolina, there's no caveat.

Also also speaking of done, I think it's the end of the line for Susan Collins. She's polling worse and worse against challenger Sara Gideon (Last one had her down twelve), and her one too many alignments with Trump on controversy has soured her reputation with Maine voters one too many times. Combine that with ranked choice voting in that state which appear to benefits Democrats, and it's red alert for her.

Far as Montana goes, I'm skeptical. The ticket-splitting is real, but for Gov. Bullock to pull of a flip it'd take a lot of split voting. Trump won the state by a lot in '16, and even with the scant polling showing a somewhat clover race, oof that is hard for me to see.

Same goes with Michigan in the opposite direction, which some see as the Dems 2nd most vulnerable seat after Alabama, albeit a pretty distant 2nd. Biden polls better than Gary Peters here, but even then you'd need to say a pretty large number of Biden/John James ballots for the Republicans to pull off a win.

The only Democrat I have sound confidence in winning in North Carolina is Gov. Roy Cooper. Cal Cunningham has consistently lead Thom Tillis in polling, but closer to Biden's margins than Cooper's. Senate race is gonna be close, but it's a lean D IMO.

I think Iowa will be very very close. The strong advantage Joni Ernst had in 2014, and Trump 2016 for that matter, is gone. Still leans R, but it's a lean like in North Carolina. But unlike NC, the challenger, Theresa Greenfield, has led in a couple of a polls, including Selzer and Co. which is supposed to be the state's premier polling outfit. So keep an eye on Iowa.

So overall, I'd say 50-50. Democrats will likely flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina; and Republicans get back Alabama.
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Old 09-19-2020, 11:51 PM
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Default Re: The senate races in 2020

Alabama has always had voter suppression; probably always will. But it's still sad to see a guy who doesn't even know what the voting rights Act is have such a tremendous lead (like 17 points) over the man who brought justice to the KKK Church bombers.
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Old 09-20-2020, 04:01 PM
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Default Re: The senate races in 2020

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
I like good analyses like these, but you know imma quibble lol.

Agreed on South Carolina, for now. Jamie Harrison is raising a lot of money and has a pretty good operation, but I still think the state is too red and Lindsey Graham is too entrenched of an incumbent to overcome. But there is an outside chance depending on whether or not Democrats can harness the potential from Ginsberg's death and Graham's eagerness to replace her with a right-wing justice. Big if, cuz they're sh-t at it.

I think Colorado is too far gone for Cory Gardner tbh. There's been no poll showing a close race, and he's not well liked in the state. Plus it's a presidential year in a blue-trending state with a well known challenger. Barring a miracle, get your fork ready because Gardner is probably done.

Speaking of done, Arizona's probably flipping blue. Martha McSally just isn't finding a footing, and Mark Kelly is running circles around her in both polling and fundraising. I honestly believe he'll not only win, but help Joe Biden over the edge and get him those 11 electoral votes.

Also speaking of done, I agree that Alabama's flipping back red. I see no win scenario for Doug Jones. And unlike South Carolina, there's no caveat.

Also also speaking of done, I think it's the end of the line for Susan Collins. She's polling worse and worse against challenger Sara Gideon (Last one had her down twelve), and her one too many alignments with Trump on controversy has soured her reputation with Maine voters one too many times. Combine that with ranked choice voting in that state which appear to benefits Democrats, and it's red alert for her.

Far as Montana goes, I'm skeptical. The ticket-splitting is real, but for Gov. Bullock to pull of a flip it'd take a lot of split voting. Trump won the state by a lot in '16, and even with the scant polling showing a somewhat clover race, oof that is hard for me to see.

Same goes with Michigan in the opposite direction, which some see as the Dems 2nd most vulnerable seat after Alabama, albeit a pretty distant 2nd. Biden polls better than Gary Peters here, but even then you'd need to say a pretty large number of Biden/John James ballots for the Republicans to pull off a win.

The only Democrat I have sound confidence in winning in North Carolina is Gov. Roy Cooper. Cal Cunningham has consistently lead Thom Tillis in polling, but closer to Biden's margins than Cooper's. Senate race is gonna be close, but it's a lean D IMO.

I think Iowa will be very very close. The strong advantage Joni Ernst had in 2014, and Trump 2016 for that matter, is gone. Still leans R, but it's a lean like in North Carolina. But unlike NC, the challenger, Theresa Greenfield, has led in a couple of a polls, including Selzer and Co. which is supposed to be the state's premier polling outfit. So keep an eye on Iowa.

So overall, I'd say 50-50. Democrats will likely flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina; and Republicans get back Alabama.
That is a very good analysis. And it includes some states which I did not mention.

The only poll in Maine that I have seen shows Susan Collins down five percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent. But even this is not a good sign for the incumbent.

I really would like to see her gone--she is a RINO--but I am not at all sure that this is the way that I would want it done. (If she were primaried--successfully--that would be far preferable, in my opinion, to helping the Democrats seize control of the Senate majority.)

Just my two cents' worth.
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Old 09-24-2020, 06:34 PM
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Default Re: The senate races in 2020

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
That is a very good analysis. And it includes some states which I did not mention.

The only poll in Maine that I have seen shows Susan Collins down five percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent. But even this is not a good sign for the incumbent.

I really would like to see her gone--she is a RINO--but I am not at all sure that this is the way that I would want it done. (If she were primaried--successfully--that would be far preferable, in my opinion, to helping the Democrats seize control of the Senate majority.)

Just my two cents' worth.
RCP Average is Gideon +6, so that's about right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...deon-6928.html

And say what you will about her being a "RINO", she did deliver a Northeast seat to the Republicans time and again in big landslide wins. In fact she won re-election in 2008 by a 61-38 margin when Obama dominated in Maine.

Winning by a little alone have been a danger sign, she's losing.
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