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Elections Discuss Wally's 2020 prez guesses. at the Political Forums; Thought I'd try it out in picture form this time, with shorter explanations on fewer states. Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, ...

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Old 06-14-2020, 03:14 PM
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Default Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Thought I'd try it out in picture form this time, with shorter explanations on fewer states.



Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Hampshire, and Iowa are the battlegrounds this election. Anything else would take some serious movement at this point.

AZ is currently Lean Biden. You have a state moving more blue pretty quickly ala Virginia, a strong Dem running against a weak Rep in the Senate, and Trump approvals are just not good over there. It's more Republican fundamentals however keep this from being a Likely Biden state.

GA and TX are Lean Trump and for the same reason. Even though polling is tight and both states are becoming more Democratic, unlike Arizona it's happening more slowly and not fast enough for to see this as a pickup right now for Biden. 2024 might see them are true coin flips, possible Lean D, but not now. Growth in Atlanta in particular is gonna push Georgia more and more blue. today however, they'll still red enough IMO to keep them in the Trump column for now.

OH and IA,(Lean Trump), and WI and PA(Lean Biden), are also in a similar boat, but in the other direction. I think the Midwest as a whole is moving more Republican long-term, but there's a lot of Trump regret in these states, including Michigan and Iowa. Also, Biden has a strength in the industrial states that Hilary simply did not possess, so I think both of these factors will help him hold and flip a few states. In fact I think Michigan and Minnesota are just might be out of reach for Trump atm.

NC and FL are probably the truest of tossups, but Biden's strength with black voters and older voters respectively, along with population and demographic changes in North Carolina, nudge them over to the Lean Biden camp. But it's a point or less nudge.

I put NH in the Lean Biden camp too, but it's teetering on Likely. They really, really don't like Trump in the Northeast, but it barely went for Hillary last time. Biden is safer there than she was, but it's not a lock yet.

Trump's poor approvals, and poor handling of Covid-19 and the national protests, have really harmed his re-election chances. And it's a shame for him because there were good opportunities to show strong, empathetic leadership in times of crises, just before an election. His campaign team should have been on this like a fly on stink. There's still a shot if the economy really starts picking up steam and he just clings onto some good numbers and shuts up about anything else until November, but it's looking rough.
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Old 06-15-2020, 02:02 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Thanks for the research and predictions, Wally.
I don't know but anything can happen (like people not voting or leaving the top of the ticket blank; also there's the possibility of corona spikes and inability to mail ).
Additionally Hillary predictions weren't right
On the other hand 2016 was a lot closer going by your map.
I just hope surprises and crises are over for awhile. I'm so tired of chaos.
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Old 06-15-2020, 11:05 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Compare to 2016...



Trump won when the media's "predictions" had him in a worse situation than 2020 at the same point in time...

What this also fails to mention is that, historically, the "undecideds" will go for the incumbent late in the game...
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Old 06-16-2020, 07:28 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by saltwn View Post
Thanks for the research and predictions, Wally.
I don't know but anything can happen (like people not voting or leaving the top of the ticket blank; also there's the possibility of corona spikes and inability to mail ).
Additionally Hillary predictions weren't right
On the other hand 2016 was a lot closer going by your map.
I just hope surprises and crises are over for awhile. I'm so tired of chaos.
Barring nobody else rolls the Jumanji dice, you've got convention bounces and reversions, economics, and the proverbial "October surprise".
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:02 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
Compare to 2016...



Trump won when the media's "predictions" had him in a worse situation than 2020 at the same point in time...

What this also fails to mention is that, historically, the "undecideds" will go for the incumbent late in the game...
After April 2016, Hillary never had a lead as big as Biden's current polling lead.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:03 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
After April 2016, Hillary never had a lead as big as Biden's current polling lead.
Or not...

Biden now...June, 2020...14-point lead...

Biden builds largest lead this year

Quote:
Our new CNN/SSRS poll jumps right off the screen: Former Vice President Joe Biden has 55% to President Donald Trump's 41%. Now, any one poll could be deemed an outlier. But let's get something straight: Biden's clearly on the upswing in high quality live telephone polling like CNN's.
Now here's Hillary...AUGUST, 2016...15-point lead...

POLL: Hillary Clinton soars to 15-point lead over Donald Trump

Quote:
Hillary Clinton has climbed to her largest lead over Donald Trump since she sealed her party's nomination earlier this year, according to a stunning poll released on Thursday.

The poll, conducted by McClatchy/Marist, showed the Democratic nominee with a massive 15-point lead over her Republican opponent.

Clinton's edge was at 48% to 33%, a drastic difference between the 42% to 39% advantage that the poll found her to have in July.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:18 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
Or not...

Biden now...June, 2020...14-point lead...

Biden builds largest lead this year



Now here's Hillary...AUGUST, 2016...15-point lead...

POLL: Hillary Clinton soars to 15-point lead over Donald Trump
Aggregate polling averages are always more accurate than individual polls. The current RCP polling average is Biden +8.1%. Hillary never had an aggregate lead that big after April 2016.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:21 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Thought I'd try it out in picture form this time, with shorter explanations on fewer states.



Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Hampshire, and Iowa are the battlegrounds this election. Anything else would take some serious movement at this point.

AZ is currently Lean Biden. You have a state moving more blue pretty quickly ala Virginia, a strong Dem running against a weak Rep in the Senate, and Trump approvals are just not good over there. It's more Republican fundamentals however keep this from being a Likely Biden state.

GA and TX are Lean Trump and for the same reason. Even though polling is tight and both states are becoming more Democratic, unlike Arizona it's happening more slowly and not fast enough for to see this as a pickup right now for Biden. 2024 might see them are true coin flips, possible Lean D, but not now. Growth in Atlanta in particular is gonna push Georgia more and more blue. today however, they'll still red enough IMO to keep them in the Trump column for now.

OH and IA,(Lean Trump), and WI and PA(Lean Biden), are also in a similar boat, but in the other direction. I think the Midwest as a whole is moving more Republican long-term, but there's a lot of Trump regret in these states, including Michigan and Iowa. Also, Biden has a strength in the industrial states that Hilary simply did not possess, so I think both of these factors will help him hold and flip a few states. In fact I think Michigan and Minnesota are just might be out of reach for Trump atm.

NC and FL are probably the truest of tossups, but Biden's strength with black voters and older voters respectively, along with population and demographic changes in North Carolina, nudge them over to the Lean Biden camp. But it's a point or less nudge.

I put NH in the Lean Biden camp too, but it's teetering on Likely. They really, really don't like Trump in the Northeast, but it barely went for Hillary last time. Biden is safer there than she was, but it's not a lock yet.

Trump's poor approvals, and poor handling of Covid-19 and the national protests, have really harmed his re-election chances. And it's a shame for him because there were good opportunities to show strong, empathetic leadership in times of crises, just before an election. His campaign team should have been on this like a fly on stink. There's still a shot if the economy really starts picking up steam and he just clings onto some good numbers and shuts up about anything else until November, but it's looking rough.
I think you're close, here is where I differ:
AZ: We've been hearing that AZ is going blue for quite some time, however if you look at they're presidential voting history the percent of votes for democrats really hasn't changed over the past 5 elections and never tops 45.1%. Without a third party candidate siphoning off R votes, I don't see AZ going blue.
FL: I nudge FL the other way, but agree with you in that it is very close.
PA: Like many other industrial states PA is seriously disgruntled, there is a lot of discontent over losing industry and much of that blame falls, right or wrong, on D's. I see PA going almost exactly as it did last time, R by a nose.

This would put the race at almost a dead heat, if Trump kept even one of the other states he turned last time he wins. But, here is an even more fun scenario: If it goes the way I laid out and he turns NV, unlikely but possible, we would have a tie.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:57 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
Aggregate polling averages are always more accurate than individual polls. The current RCP polling average is Biden +8.1%. Hillary never had an aggregate lead that big after April 2016.
Funny how you lash out at other members for not being specific and implying certain information such as "per capita", but then immediately defend yourself in the very same manner by not being specific and implying "aggregate polling averages"...
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:34 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
I think you're close, here is where I differ:
AZ: We've been hearing that AZ is going blue for quite some time, however if you look at they're presidential voting history the percent of votes for democrats really hasn't changed over the past 5 elections and never tops 45.1%. Without a third party candidate siphoning off R votes, I don't see AZ going blue.
FL: I nudge FL the other way, but agree with you in that it is very close.
PA: Like many other industrial states PA is seriously disgruntled, there is a lot of discontent over losing industry and much of that blame falls, right or wrong, on D's. I see PA going almost exactly as it did last time, R by a nose.

This would put the race at almost a dead heat, if Trump kept even one of the other states he turned last time he wins. But, here is an even more fun scenario: If it goes the way I laid out and he turns NV, unlikely but possible, we would have a tie.
Biden has held a pretty stubbornly consistent lead over Trump in Arizona polling. Not a huge lead, mid single digits, but it's persistent. Combine that with a strong Democrat running against a weak Republican incumbent in the Senate, it's a pretty rare but real oppotunity and I believe it's enough for Biden to flip it blue. 2018 was also a pretty good year for Democrats there, that helps a little.

Far as Pennsylvania goes, Dems had a pretty good midterm there as well, with House pickups and strong wins for governor and Senate. And I think Joe Biden being a Pennsylvania native helps a lot too, and also the while likability thing vs Hillary in general. She was just an unappealing person and a uniquely bad campaigner who more or less ignored the rust belt until the final days when the campaign internals were telling her she was in deep trouble. Biden's got this IMO, i feel strongly he'll win comfortably there.

Florida will be super close as usual, because Florida's gonna Florida.

Hope we don't tie, but this year has been omething else, so who the f-ck knows lol
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