Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > Political Forums > Elections
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Elections Discuss Wally's 2020 prez guesses. at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by WallyWager Alright, so we're two months from the election. Early and absentee voting is going to start ...

Reply
 
Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #81 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2020, 06:00 AM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 57,381
Thanks: 2,468
Thanked 39,637 Times in 21,994 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Alright, so we're two months from the election. Early and absentee voting is going to start across the country soon. We're past the primaries and the conventions. Kenosha happened.
One issue (and it's a problem) is that early voting will start, for some, before even one single debate has occurred...

This is unfortunate, considering Biden can't even get through a question and answer session with scripted notes on a teleprompter...

Biden actually said "end of quote" while he was reading what he was supposed to say...

__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
  #82 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2020, 10:25 AM
Constant_Slothrop's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 3,977
Thanks: 14
Thanked 644 Times in 579 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
One issue (and it's a problem) is that early voting will start, for some, before even one single debate has occurred...

This is unfortunate, considering Biden can't even get through a question and answer session with scripted notes on a teleprompter...

Biden actually said "end of quote" while he was reading what he was supposed to say...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI4E8IzrvHo
It’s hilarious (and pathetic) how they edited out where he said “quote” prior to the sentence. That’s a perfectly normal way to make clear during a prepared speech that you are quoting someone else. This was from his speech prior to the Q and A session and not in response to a question. You guys just can’t help making shlt up about Biden, can you.

I just spent 30 seconds googling and found a dozen or more transcripts of politicians using the “quote”/“end of quote” device to orally note when they were quoting someone during a speech.

Here’s a Republican congressman: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts...script-july-28

Here’s a Democratic congressman: http://archives.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1902/27/cnr.03.html

Here’s Nancy Pelosi: https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/41218-6

Here’s Dick Cheney: https://www.politico.com/story/2009/...-speech-022823

Here;’s some guy named Joe Biden in 2008: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/u...ext-biden.html

You get the idea. This is pathetic bullshlt.

Last edited by Constant_Slothrop; 09-05-2020 at 10:33 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #83 (permalink)  
Old 09-06-2020, 12:01 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,132
Thanks: 1,594
Thanked 9,226 Times in 5,909 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
One issue (and it's a problem) is that early voting will start, for some, before even one single debate has occurred...

This is unfortunate, considering Biden can't even get through a question and answer session with scripted notes on a teleprompter...

Biden actually said "end of quote" while he was reading what he was supposed to say...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI4E8IzrvHo
Saying "end of quote" doesn't prove anything. Anything at all, good or bad, what a silly criticism. Even if it were a gaffe, so what? Joe Biden's been known as a gaffe machine since before his last run for president. It's not a stunning revelation that's a cause for concern, a symptom of some sort of mental decline. He's also had some very good speeches recently, and did well in the 1 on 1 debate with Bernie.

We know he flubs sometimes, rambles a bit too, but I'm told people like someone who's not too polished. It's what some people I've been told like about Trump.

You can look at any politician and find a list of flubs and ****ups, any. I remember when Obama got a of sh-t from the right over mispronouncing "corpsman" lol. Trump has his own too, nobody can deny that.

I'm just saying this late in the game, hoping for Biden to sh-t the bed between now and Election Day, through the debates, is getting to be more and more of a risky bet.
__________________
"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side." - Donald Trump, on pedophile Jeff Epstein.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #84 (permalink)  
Old 09-06-2020, 02:11 PM
Constant_Slothrop's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 3,977
Thanks: 14
Thanked 644 Times in 579 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Saying "end of quote" doesn't prove anything. Anything at all, good or bad, what a silly criticism. Even if it were a gaffe, so what? Joe Biden's been known as a gaffe machine since before his last run for president. It's not a stunning revelation that's a cause for concern, a symptom of some sort of mental decline. He's also had some very good speeches recently, and did well in the 1 on 1 debate with Bernie.

We know he flubs sometimes, rambles a bit too, but I'm told people like someone who's not too polished. It's what some people I've been told like about Trump.

You can look at any politician and find a list of flubs and ****ups, any. I remember when Obama got a of sh-t from the right over mispronouncing "corpsman" lol. Trump has his own too, nobody can deny that.

I'm just saying this late in the game, hoping for Biden to sh-t the bed between now and Election Day, through the debates, is getting to be more and more of a risky bet.
Itís not a gaffe. See my prior comment. Itís just a pathetic lie pushed by Trump supporters.
Reply With Quote
  #85 (permalink)  
Old 09-24-2020, 07:15 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,132
Thanks: 1,594
Thanked 9,226 Times in 5,909 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
Itís not a gaffe. See my prior comment. Itís just a pathetic lie pushed by Trump supporters.
They're doing it again. This time they're claiming Biden was reading from a teleprompter during a Telemundo interview where he was taking questions from viewers. At one point the video feed went out and Biden told the interviewer "OK, I lost the lady". The Trump campaign decided that he really said "OK, I lost the line" and that had to refer to a teleprompter or something.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/polit...ndo/index.html

I distinctly remember when the diehard Bernie supporters on Twitter were super hoping Biden would dementia bomb the 1v1 debate with him. That didn't pan out at all. And far be it from me to give a completely unamerican, unpatriotic, piece of sh-t like Trump any advice, but lowering debate expectations is for the other guy isn't going to help.
__________________
"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side." - Donald Trump, on pedophile Jeff Epstein.
Reply With Quote
  #86 (permalink)  
Old 10-06-2020, 07:02 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,132
Thanks: 1,594
Thanked 9,226 Times in 5,909 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

So, all that happened.

None of it helpful to Trump. In the last week, we had a debate, covid invading the White House and his reelection bid, and stimulus talks frozen by Trump himself, stating there won't be anymore negotiations until after the election. The fallout of the first two events is becoming evident in the recent post-debate polls, with Change Research and SurveyUSA giving Biden a 10 point lead, Biden +8 per RMG (Scott Rasmussen, yeah that Rasmussen), Biden +14 per Boston Herald, and a frankly eye-popping Biden +16 per CNN/SRSS with it being Biden 57-Trump 41 among likely voters.

RCP average is +9 which would be devastating on its own, but it could be underselling how bad of a situation Trump is in at the moment.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

And to dogpile further, voting is happening now. I mean almost 5 million in "now", far exceeding 2016's early vote so far, while the iron is this hot for Joe Biden.

As such, I made a new map.



West coast is all solid D now, it's not even a fight anymore.

AZ goes from likely to lean D. It's tightened a bit in polling, but it's still Biden's to lose. But it is still a somewhat Republican state, so Trump could pull off a surprise and edge Biden out.

SC goes from Likely to Lean R. Trump will still probably win it, but Lindsey Graham's poor debate performance and tightening polls in the Senate race aren't helping. Trump will likely end up bailing Graham out this time.

NE-2 goes to from Lean R to Lean D. What little polling I've seen gives Biden a pretty decent lead in that little blue dot in Nebraska, it's kinda surprising. The district also has one of the highest concentrations of voters with a college degree, which is also working in the VP's favor.

All of the rust belt is Likely D now, polling has been pretty solid for Biden in MN, WI, MI, and PA. And I can tell from you from the gargantuan flood of mailers I've been getting from Biden and the Democrats, they're not taking it for granted this time. At least Michigan.

NH is also Likely D now, I think we're a long way from Hillary barely eking out a pathetic win there. Polling's been good for Biden, and approval for Trump is in the gutter.

Aaaaand I might be crazy, but I'm moving Georgia to lean D, barely lean D. It's kinda my dark horse in the race. Movement in polls has been trending Biden's way, albeit like a 2-3 point lead. It's slight breeze territory, especially considering the state's fundamentals, but I think the opportunity is very real.
__________________
"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side." - Donald Trump, on pedophile Jeff Epstein.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #87 (permalink)  
Old 11-02-2020, 10:16 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,132
Thanks: 1,594
Thanked 9,226 Times in 5,909 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Welp, last one.

98 million+ voters have cast a ballot already, and afaik at least Texas and Hawaii have already exceeded their 2016 vote totals. Records are being smashed all over, and it's pretty awesome to see. Depending on how E-Day goes, this might be the biggest presidential vote ever.



Keep in mind that anything I put as light blue/red can still flip, but it'll take a polling error of various degrees. It's more possible that Trump will take back Florida than Pennsylvania. Likely states could flip if something catastrophic happens, but probably won't. Solids are solids, they're not moving.

But let's be honest, Trump's playing defense.

I think New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin are far too gone for Trump, Biden's probably winning those, barring state level polling misses much greater than in 2016. Nevada's in the same camp, too far gone. The early votes I think are just too much for Trump to overcome.

Likewise, Montana, South Carolina, and Kansas are very likely to go to Trump. The Senate races might tell a different story, but it'll depend on ticket-splitting by Trump voters, not the other way around.

Arizona has tightened, but Dems have made tangible improvements since 2018 when they did in that Senate race. I think Biden will win, but it's 2-3 points. If Biden does win Arizona, he'll have Mark Kelly to thank.

Of the lean blue states I have in the Southeast, Biden's strength is in this order: North Carolina > Georgia > Florida.

Florida has tightened pretty considerably, and Trump is apparently doing better with Hispanic voters, particular younger Cuban voters, and Dem Latino turnout isn't as strong as the Biden camp wants. On the flipside, Biden is doing better with white and older voters. Like a 1-2 point lead for Biden, but it's very possible that Trump surges on E-Day and takes it back. Also keep in mind that Florida stayed Republican even in the midst of last election's blue wave.

NC and Georgia on the other hand have been a little more sturdy for Biden. The polling has been a little less tight, and also less volatile. And the massive early vote appears to skew in Biden's favor. 1-3 point lead for Biden, but again a good turnout for Trump from the remaining voters could flip it back. Regardless, if Biden wins one of these three, Trump is in serious trouble. And they'll count fast too. We should know the winners within maybe 3 hours max.

And then we come to Pennsylvania. It's a stronger lean for Biden than anything in the Sun Belt, but it's the weakest of the three states Biden almost absolutely needs to win (MI, WI, PA). Worse, they're not counting mail-in votes right away, and a few counties won't count absentees until Wednesday, and they'll count late ballots too. I think Biden will win 4-5 points, but if Trump wins the Sun Belt battlegrounds and an election win depends on Pennsylvania, we might not know the overall winner for a few days.

Iowa almost tilted blue at one point, but I think Trump has regained enough ground in the last few days to clinch it. A 2-4 point win for Trump, though the same caveats apply. It's a lean, not a likely.

Ohio's a little closer. Polling has been tighter, and there's been more Biden leads here than in Iowa. Nevertheless, I think Trump still maintains a 2-3 point edge, it's not as exciting as Florida lol. Biden has an outside chance, it would take a strong early vote with a weak e-day vote for Trump.

And now we come to Texas, the final boss for Democrats. Texas is probably the toughest call to make for me. Early voting there beat all of 2016's vote, and will easily surpass 11 million votes if not more. This is kind of uncharted territory. Nonetheless, I still think Trump is more likely to win, don't ask for a number.

351-187, Joe Biden to be our 46th President. 6-7 point win in the popular vote.
__________________
"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side." - Donald Trump, on pedophile Jeff Epstein.
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #88 (permalink)  
Old 11-03-2020, 12:23 AM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 57,381
Thanks: 2,468
Thanked 39,637 Times in 21,994 Posts
Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Thanks for the analysis Wally!...

I haven't made any predictions one way of the other...I can see either winning, to be frank...

I think EVERYTHING comes down to the "shy" Trump vote...

It's obviously there, but the question is "Are there enough of them to overcome polling deficits?" and I simply don't know the answer to that....

This isn't relegated to any state in particular...I would find it odd for one state to have a 3% difference due to shy Trump voters and another state have an 8% difference...

Obviously, there are other technical factors, but if there's a 5% difference due to shy Trump voters, most, if not all states that have Biden up by 4% are going to be Trump red by the end of tomorrow night...

...and if it's a 3% difference, Biden gets them...

So my last minute official prediction is...I have no idea...
__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to cnredd For This Useful Post:
Reply

Tags
2020, guesses, prez, wally

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:02 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0