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Elections Discuss Wally's 2020 prez guesses. at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by WallyWager Thought I'd try it out in picture form this time, with shorter explanations on fewer states. ...

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Old 06-16-2020, 02:02 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Thought I'd try it out in picture form this time, with shorter explanations on fewer states.


Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Hampshire, and Iowa are the battlegrounds this election. Anything else would take some serious movement at this point.

AZ is currently Lean Biden. You have a state moving more blue pretty quickly ala Virginia, a strong Dem running against a weak Rep in the Senate, and Trump approvals are just not good over there. It's more Republican fundamentals however keep this from being a Likely Biden state.

GA and TX are Lean Trump and for the same reason. Even though polling is tight and both states are becoming more Democratic, unlike Arizona it's happening more slowly and not fast enough for to see this as a pickup right now for Biden. 2024 might see them are true coin flips, possible Lean D, but not now. Growth in Atlanta in particular is gonna push Georgia more and more blue. today however, they'll still red enough IMO to keep them in the Trump column for now.

OH and IA,(Lean Trump), and WI and PA(Lean Biden), are also in a similar boat, but in the other direction. I think the Midwest as a whole is moving more Republican long-term, but there's a lot of Trump regret in these states, including Michigan and Iowa. Also, Biden has a strength in the industrial states that Hilary simply did not possess, so I think both of these factors will help him hold and flip a few states. In fact I think Michigan and Minnesota are just might be out of reach for Trump atm.

NC and FL are probably the truest of tossups, but Biden's strength with black voters and older voters respectively, along with population and demographic changes in North Carolina, nudge them over to the Lean Biden camp. But it's a point or less nudge.

I put NH in the Lean Biden camp too, but it's teetering on Likely. They really, really don't like Trump in the Northeast, but it barely went for Hillary last time. Biden is safer there than she was, but it's not a lock yet.

Trump's poor approvals, and poor handling of Covid-19 and the national protests, have really harmed his re-election chances. And it's a shame for him because there were good opportunities to show strong, empathetic leadership in times of crises, just before an election. His campaign team should have been on this like a fly on stink. There's still a shot if the economy really starts picking up steam and he just clings onto some good numbers and shuts up about anything else until November, but it's looking rough.
Bold of you, Wally.
It's entirely too early to make predictions, in my opinion. There hasn't been a single debate between Trump and Biden yet. I'm thinking that Biden may come off as mentally incompetent in debates. That alone could swing independent voters in battleground states.
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Old 06-16-2020, 04:39 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Biden has held a pretty stubbornly consistent lead over Trump in Arizona polling. Not a huge lead, mid single digits, but it's persistent. Combine that with a strong Democrat running against a weak Republican incumbent in the Senate, it's a pretty rare but real oppotunity and I believe it's enough for Biden to flip it blue. 2018 was also a pretty good year for Democrats there, that helps a little.
Hillary Clinton was also sporting a mid single digit lead in AZ, she was polling a 5 point lead in mid October. She got 45.1% of the vote, not a winning number. I put little if any stock in poll numbers, over the years they have become progressively more inaccurate to the point of being a joke in any remotely close race.

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Far as Pennsylvania goes, Dems had a pretty good midterm there as well, with House pickups and strong wins for governor and Senate. And I think Joe Biden being a Pennsylvania native helps a lot too, and also the while likability thing vs Hillary in general. She was just an unappealing person and a uniquely bad campaigner who more or less ignored the rust belt until the final days when the campaign internals were telling her she was in deep trouble. Biden's got this IMO, i feel strongly he'll win comfortably there.
You may be right, but in presidential elections R's have been picking up 2% more of the vote each time for a few cycles now. House and Senate pick-ups are common in mid-term elections for the party not in the White House. I feel pretty good about putting this one in the pink.

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Florida will be super close as usual, because Florida's gonna Florida.
Couldn't have put it better myself.

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Hope we don't tie, but this year has been omething else, so who the f-ck knows lol
I don't know, could be fun!
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Old 06-16-2020, 05:07 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Funny how you lash out at other members for not being specific and implying certain information such as "per capita", but then immediately defend yourself in the very same manner by not being specific and implying "aggregate polling averages"...
Don't be an idiot. A candidate's "polling lead" is pretty clearly a reference to an aggregate or average and not a single outlier poll.
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Old 06-16-2020, 06:45 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Don't be an idiot. A candidate's "polling lead" is pretty clearly a reference to an aggregate or average and not a single outlier poll.
Calling the forum owner an idiot?
Who the hell do you think you are?
Reason 187 why I no longer participate here.
Twits like Y O U.
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:19 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Calling the forum owner an idiot?
Who the hell do you think you are?
Reason 187 why I no longer participate here.
Twits like Y O U.
Thanks, but I'm a big boy...hearing "Don't be an idiot" from him reinforces my belief that I'm, actually, far from an idiot....

It would be when he says "That was an intelligent response, thank you. I never thought of that perspective." that I would start to worry and change my opposition...
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Old 06-17-2020, 01:08 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Way too far out at this point to call anything imo....

That and polls aren't worth a warm six-pack these days....


How many people are going to even show up to vote....?

Might be the lowest turn out of our lifetimes....
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Old 06-17-2020, 01:18 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Way too far out at this point to call anything imo....

That and polls aren't worth a warm six-pack these days....


How many people are going to even show up to vote....?

Might be the lowest turn out of our lifetimes....
That last part has always been a sticking point with me...

Enthusiasm...

A town with a majority party will ALWAYS have the majority party lose if the majority party gets complacent and the minority part is "whipped up" enough...

Works with primaries, too...We recently saw this when AOC won her district with TWELVE PERCENT of registered voters actually showing up to vote...The incumbent and powerful primary opponent mailed it in...and cost him his seat...


Biden Leads Trump in New Polls, But He May Face an Enthusiasm Gap

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While 37% of Biden voters say they plan to cast a pro-Biden vote, the national survey found that 7 in 10 Trump voters are voting to reelect the president primarily because they support him.
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Old 06-26-2020, 09:15 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Originally Posted by Dave1 View Post
Way too far out at this point to call anything imo....

That and polls aren't worth a warm six-pack these days....


How many people are going to even show up to vote....?

Might be the lowest turn out of our lifetimes....
A single poll doesn't matter, it's just one person's snapshot in time. And it could be an outlier.

Multiple polls from different, reputable outlets over time? That's where you can draw trends.

Of course we can't call anything now, but between the two I'd much rather be Joe Biden at the moment. He's winning in national and state polls pretty significantly, and he's starting to outfundraise the incumbent's campaign.
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:02 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Polls this early out are pointless media talking points to get politicalphiles something to complain about. It does nothing but muddy the road on the debate over the kind of country we want, the society we want, and the future we want. Do the work your self, don't let limbaugh, maddow, or the like tell you what to think or how their boy is doing in the poll.
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:16 AM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

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Polls this early out are pointless media talking points to get politicalphiles something to complain about. It does nothing but muddy the road on the debate over the kind of country we want, the society we want, and the future we want. Do the work your self, don't let limbaugh, maddow, or the like tell you what to think or how their boy is doing in the poll.
The only "trend" I notice is the media yelling "Democrat lead above the margin or error!!!!" before an election...EVERY election...

Remember When Mike Dukakis Led George Bush by 17 Points?

...and my personal favorite....less than ONE MONTH before voting...
.
Hillary Clinton on Track for Electoral College Landslide: Poll
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