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Elections Discuss Trump Trailing in Florida? at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by pjohns Enthusiasm is, indeed, very important as concerning elections of any type. (Those who just moderately support ...

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Old 06-22-2019, 03:12 PM
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Default Re: Trump Trailing in Florida?

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Enthusiasm is, indeed, very important as concerning elections of any type. (Those who just moderately support Candidate X may, or may not, take the trouble to get out and vote--especially if it conflicts with something else, or even if the weather is bad.)

And Bernie Sanders probably should have gotten the Democratic nomination in 2016. But The Clinton Machine apparently prevented that from happening.
The thing about enthusiasm is that itís critical for the marginal voter, not for the hard core supporters. The type of people who are going to attend a campaign rally are going to vote no matter what. And 20,000 hard core, enthusiastic rally goers (or 50,000 or 100,000) doesnít really move the needle in a state where the winner and loser are both going to get more than 4 million or so votes.
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Old 06-23-2019, 08:33 AM
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Default Re: Trump Trailing in Florida?

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Originally Posted by Constant_Slothrop View Post
The thing about enthusiasm is that itís critical for the marginal voter, not for the hard core supporters. The type of people who are going to attend a campaign rally are going to vote no matter what. And 20,000 hard core, enthusiastic rally goers (or 50,000 or 100,000) doesnít really move the needle in a state where the winner and loser are both going to get more than 4 million or so votes.
Rally goers especially ones that will camp out days before the event in the heat and rain become volunteers, donors and canvass friends and neighbors. It's called grassroots support that exceeds the number of attendees.

Democrats are fond of claiming that a swing of 70K in votes nationwide decided the election in Trump's favor. But 20,000 at a rally and hundreds of thousands of excess ticket requests are meaningless because Orange man bad.
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Old 06-23-2019, 10:15 AM
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But 20,000 at a rally and hundreds of thousands of excess ticket requests are meaningless because Orange man bad.
It actually has nothing to do with Trump. I could easily have made the same point about Hillary’s final 2016 rally in Philadelphia, which outdrew the largest of Trump’s 2016 rallies. The simple point is that there is no demonstrable correlation between the size and enthusiasm of presidential rallies and actual results. What really matters are the last few hundreds of thousands of persuadable voters, not the hard core base who attend something like this event.
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Old 06-24-2019, 10:25 AM
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It actually has nothing to do with Trump. I could easily have made the same point about Hillaryís final 2016 rally in Philadelphia, which outdrew the largest of Trumpís 2016 rallies. The simple point is that there is no demonstrable correlation between the size and enthusiasm of presidential rallies and actual results. What really matters are the last few hundreds of thousands of persuadable voters, not the hard core base who attend something like this event.
Editing my post down to one sentence shows just how little confidence you have in your speculation.

After failing to campaign in so-called blue wall states critical to her success Hillary held a rally in the closing days of the campaign too late to allow rally goers the opportunity for much spreading of the word. Of course that is equivalent to a rally held at beginning of the campaign.
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Old 06-24-2019, 11:09 AM
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Editing my post down to one sentence shows just how little confidence you have in your speculation.

After failing to campaign in so-called blue wall states critical to her success Hillary held a rally in the closing days of the campaign too late to allow rally goers the opportunity for much spreading of the word. Of course that is equivalent to a rally held at beginning of the campaign.
OK, if youíre going to dismiss Hillary, how about Mitt Romney? He had numerous rallies in 2012 that were larger than the largest Trump rally in 2016. And, if you want to read something funny, track down Peggy Noonanís column from the weekend before the 2012 election, in which she predicted a Romney victory, basing it in large part on the size and enthusiasm of his rally crowds.
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Old 06-24-2019, 01:56 PM
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Default Re: Trump Trailing in Florida?

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Enthusiasm is, indeed, very important as concerning elections of any type. (Those who just moderately support Candidate X may, or may not, take the trouble to get out and vote--especially if it conflicts with something else, or even if the weather is bad.)

And Bernie Sanders probably should have gotten the Democratic nomination in 2016. But The Clinton Machine apparently prevented that from happening.
yes it did; and it had help from corporate media. cant have uncle berne leading the way to eliminate lobbyist interference.
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Old 06-24-2019, 02:04 PM
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Default Re: Trump Trailing in Florida?

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Rally goers especially ones that will camp out days before the event in the heat and rain become volunteers, donors and canvass friends and neighbors. It's called grassroots support that exceeds the number of attendees.

Democrats are fond of claiming that a swing of 70K in votes nationwide decided the election in Trump's favor. But 20,000 at a rally and hundreds of thousands of excess ticket requests are meaningless because Orange man bad.
big difference between surplus votes in key states as a whole and surplus votes in just one state for the total win. but I agree fla is a must win for trump
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Old 06-25-2019, 07:00 AM
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OK, if youíre going to dismiss Hillary, how about Mitt Romney? He had numerous rallies in 2012 that were larger than the largest Trump rally in 2016. And, if you want to read something funny, track down Peggy Noonanís column from the weekend before the 2012 election, in which she predicted a Romney victory, basing it in large part on the size and enthusiasm of his rally crowds.
You are the one who is being dismissive based on your conjecture about Romney's rallies compared to Trump. Even if we suspend disbelief to accept the claim Romney had bigger rallies than Trump so what? They are 2 different campaigns each with a different set of candidates. Claiming that rally crowd size is unimportant because it's Trump is nonsense as the 2016 race showed where large crowds at rallies were dismissed in favor of expert polls.

Trump has rewritten the formerly ironclad rules of Presidential campaigns. Romney was villified for his wealth, a far richer Trump boasts of his. Trump's campaign spent significantly less than Hillary's. Trump didn't have nearly the ground game Hillary had. Trump has a business background rather than a history of elected office. Trump's policy positions weren't dictated by political consultants. Trump agreed to interviews by openly hostile political hacks posing as journalists. Trump's rally attendance turned out to be an indicator of electoral strength.

No doubt the blind hatred of the Resistance will prevent any recognition of Trump's transformation of Presidential campaigns from an exercise conducted by political party leaders into a populist exercise where 25 Democrats contest the nomination.
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Old 06-25-2019, 07:04 AM
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Default Re: Trump Trailing in Florida?

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big difference between surplus votes in key states as a whole and surplus votes in just one state for the total win. but I agree fla is a must win for trump
Not sure what you mean by surplus votes but Democrats constantly bray about Hillary winning the popular vote thanks largely to California.
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Old 06-25-2019, 06:56 PM
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Default Re: Trump Trailing in Florida?

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Not sure what you mean by surplus votes but Democrats constantly bray about Hillary winning the popular vote thanks largely to California.
right. we learned from 2016 electorates count.

right now(early I know) both Biden and Bernie are beating trump in Florida.
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