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WallyWager 06-30-2018 05:48 PM

Wally's Senate guesses
 
In a president's first midterm where the WH, House, and Senate are all GOP controlled, with an already-present surge in Democratic turnout, in spite of the lopsided number of seats that Democrats have to defend it looks like they're going to legitimately well this time around. Hasn't been since 2006 when they haven't gotten creamed in a midterm, much less did well. Anyway, here are my ratings. Obviously they may change because we're still a-ways from the election.

Solid R states: MS, MS Special, UT, ID, WY, NE

Unless any of the R candidates are Roy Moore in disguise, they're coasting.

Likely R: TX

Cruz isn't holding as big of a lead as the solids, but it's strongly persistent in a GOP state. Beto O'Rourke has a very small chance in TX, but even with Dems surging it's just not likely to happen. I think there's still a steep under 50% wall.

Lean R: None

Toss-up: FL, IN, ND, MO, TN

FL: Rick Scott has a solid base of support, and him and Bill Nelson have been trading small leads back and forth for some time. This will easily be Nelson's toughest re-election campaign. Can't say who is most likely to win right now.

IN: GOPers kinda lucked out when Mike Braun won the primary. He's probably the strongest candidate they had against Joe Donnelly. But on the other hand it was a pretty harsh primary and the vote was splintered pretty good, and Donnelly is a strong Dem candidate in a pretty Republican state. A gun to my head and I'd say Donnelly would win, but it'll be closer than in 2012.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp barely won in 2012, and I think few if anyone saw that coming. She'll be up against another strong contender in Kevin Cramer, the sole current representative of North Dakota. If Republicans flip any seats, this would be the one I'd see going first.

MO: Claire McCaskill has some sort of voodoo blessing on her. Last time she was given a really sh-tty candidate in Todd Akin wherein she vastly outperformed the polling. Josh Hawley is a better candidate against her, but he's also got the stink of disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens on him, somewhat. She's performing slightly better in overall polling than Nelson in FL, but it's also a more Republican state. Pure toss-up for now, but would lean it more Democratic if Greitens does end up running third-party as is rumored.

TN: The Dems really, really lucked out when former Gov. Phil Breseden announced he'd run for Senate. He won a gubernatorial race in 2006 by a lopsided margin and turned every county blue. A strong candidate that's liked on both sides. And on top of that Marsha Blackburn, the likely Republican candidate, isn't. Only reason it's a toss-up is because of how Republican the state is.

Lean D: AZ, MT, WV, NV

AZ: Jeff Flake is neither well-liked, nor running for re-election. Dems, again, lucked out with Kyrsten Sinema being the likely nominee. She's a popular, moderate Democrat who's a good fit for the state. She has solid, consistent leads against the three major GOP primary candidate, especially against the racist criminal Joe Arpaio who was booted out of his job in 2016. If after the primaries we see polling change due to a possible "coming home" factor from Republicans, it may go back to being toss-up.

MT: Jon Tester's fortunate to have a middling challenger in a Dem surge year, on top of the lone GOP representative, the one that bodyslammed a journalist then lied about it, having a tough re-election fight with a better challenger than an unknown musician . I think he'll have the best chance of winning in the Lean Dem bracket.

WV: Joe Manchin won strongly in 2012, in spite of Obama getting wrecked in West Virginia. This time around I think he's coming in a little weaker, but not enough to be in serious trouble. Patrick Morrisey isn't a weak opponent, but he's not particularly amazing. If convicted felon Don Blankenship really does run a third party challenge, he'll only fracture the Republican vote and let Manchin coast.

NV: Both candidates, Jacky Rosen and Dean Heller, won their primaries with strong margins. Rosen is generally leading in polls by a few points, and in the current environment it'd be tough for me see Heller win re-election. Weakest of the Lean Dems right now though because I think Republicans are a little more resilient in general that state than in say New Mexico.

Likely D: MN, MN Special, WI, OH, MI, NJ, PA, VA, NM

In spite of how well Trump did in the Rust Belt, Senate Dems over here aren't seeing strong challenges and in fact will probably easily win re-election. They almost had a shot against Tammy Baldwin in WI and Sherrod Brown in OH, but they're so far proving to be far stronger than expected.

Solid D: CA, MA, NY, DE, MD, CT, WA, HI, RI.

Solid I: VT, ME


Again, unless one of them is Roy Moore in a human suit, it ain't happening.

If the elections were today I think we'd see a straight 50D-50R Senate with North Dakota flipping to the Republicans and Arizona and Nevada going to the Democrats.

Feel free to tell my why I'm nuts lol.

saltwn 06-30-2018 06:44 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
I hope that jack-a-poot Scott doesn't win in Fla. But they seemed to hate Nelson for helping districts get compensated for the damage left by deep water horizon. :rolls

cnredd 07-01-2018 01:16 AM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Excellent analysis WW!...:thumbsup :clap

lurch907 07-02-2018 11:47 AM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 939272)
In a president's first midterm where the WH, House, and Senate are all GOP controlled, with an already-present surge in Democratic turnout, in spite of the lopsided number of seats that Democrats have to defend it looks like they're going to legitimately well this time around. Hasn't been since 2006 when they haven't gotten creamed in a midterm, much less did well. Anyway, here are my ratings. Obviously they may change because we're still a-ways from the election.

Solid R states: MS, MS Special, UT, ID, WY, NE

Unless any of the R candidates are Roy Moore in disguise, they're coasting.

Likely R: TX

Cruz isn't holding as big of a lead as the solids, but it's strongly persistent in a GOP state. Beto O'Rourke has a very small chance in TX, but even with Dems surging it's just not likely to happen. I think there's still a steep under 50% wall.

Lean R: None

Toss-up: FL, IN, ND, MO, TN

FL: Rick Scott has a solid base of support, and him and Bill Nelson have been trading small leads back and forth for some time. This will easily be Nelson's toughest re-election campaign. Can't say who is most likely to win right now.

IN: GOPers kinda lucked out when Mike Braun won the primary. He's probably the strongest candidate they had against Joe Donnelly. But on the other hand it was a pretty harsh primary and the vote was splintered pretty good, and Donnelly is a strong Dem candidate in a pretty Republican state. A gun to my head and I'd say Donnelly would win, but it'll be closer than in 2012.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp barely won in 2012, and I think few if anyone saw that coming. She'll be up against another strong contender in Kevin Cramer, the sole current representative of North Dakota. If Republicans flip any seats, this would be the one I'd see going first.

MO: Claire McCaskill has some sort of voodoo blessing on her. Last time she was given a really sh-tty candidate in Todd Akin wherein she vastly outperformed the polling. Josh Hawley is a better candidate against her, but he's also got the stink of disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens on him, somewhat. She's performing slightly better in overall polling than Nelson in FL, but it's also a more Republican state. Pure toss-up for now, but would lean it more Democratic if Greitens does end up running third-party as is rumored.

TN: The Dems really, really lucked out when former Gov. Phil Breseden announced he'd run for Senate. He won a gubernatorial race in 2006 by a lopsided margin and turned every county blue. A strong candidate that's liked on both sides. And on top of that Marsha Blackburn, the likely Republican candidate, isn't. Only reason it's a toss-up is because of how Republican the state is.

Lean D: AZ, MT, WV, NV

AZ: Jeff Flake is neither well-liked, nor running for re-election. Dems, again, lucked out with Kyrsten Sinema being the likely nominee. She's a popular, moderate Democrat who's a good fit for the state. She has solid, consistent leads against the three major GOP primary candidate, especially against the racist criminal Joe Arpaio who was booted out of his job in 2016. If after the primaries we see polling change due to a possible "coming home" factor from Republicans, it may go back to being toss-up.

MT: Jon Tester's fortunate to have a middling challenger in a Dem surge year, on top of the lone GOP representative, the one that bodyslammed a journalist then lied about it, having a tough re-election fight with a better challenger than an unknown musician . I think he'll have the best chance of winning in the Lean Dem bracket.

WV: Joe Manchin won strongly in 2012, in spite of Obama getting wrecked in West Virginia. This time around I think he's coming in a little weaker, but not enough to be in serious trouble. Patrick Morrisey isn't a weak opponent, but he's not particularly amazing. If convicted felon Don Blankenship really does run a third party challenge, he'll only fracture the Republican vote and let Manchin coast.

NV: Both candidates, Jacky Rosen and Dean Heller, won their primaries with strong margins. Rosen is generally leading in polls by a few points, and in the current environment it'd be tough for me see Heller win re-election. Weakest of the Lean Dems right now though because I think Republicans are a little more resilient in general that state than in say New Mexico.

Likely D: MN, MN Special, WI, OH, MI, NJ, PA, VA, NM

In spite of how well Trump did in the Rust Belt, Senate Dems over here aren't seeing strong challenges and in fact will probably easily win re-election. They almost had a shot against Tammy Baldwin in WI and Sherrod Brown in OH, but they're so far proving to be far stronger than expected.

Solid D: CA, MA, NY, DE, MD, CT, WA, HI, RI.

Solid I: VT, ME


Again, unless one of them is Roy Moore in a human suit, it ain't happening.

If the elections were today I think we'd see a straight 50D-50R Senate with North Dakota flipping to the Republicans and Arizona and Nevada going to the Democrats.

Feel free to tell my why I'm nuts lol.

Solid analysis, Wally. Couple things I would predict differently though.

Likely R:
TX - I would put Cruz's seat in Solid R territory, I see him wining by at least 10 points.

Toss-up:
ND - I think this is where I would depart from your analysis the most. I would put ND in Leans or even Likely R. Cramer is very popular and liked in ND with a history of shellacking D opponents, as you noted Heitkamp barely won in 2012, Cramer is a stronger candidate than Berg was in 2012,and Trump won ND by 36 points in 2016. I'd give this seat a 75% chance of going R.

Leans D:
AZ - With McSally likely to win the GOP primary, I would lean this one the other way or maybe rate as a toss-up. Trump won AZ by just under 4 point with immigration as a big factor and with AZ's on going problems with illegal immigration a candidate that embraces Trump's enforcement policies will do well.

All-in-all I predict either no change to the senate seat count or R's +1. No change if Heller loses NV, +1 if Heller wins

mlurp 07-02-2018 01:15 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 939272)
In a president's first midterm where the WH, House, and Senate are all GOP controlled, with an already-present surge in Democratic turnout, in spite of the lopsided number of seats that Democrats have to defend it looks like they're going to legitimately well this time around. Hasn't been since 2006 when they haven't gotten creamed in a midterm, much less did well. Anyway, here are my ratings. Obviously they may change because we're still a-ways from the election.

Solid R states: MS, MS Special, UT, ID, WY, NE

Unless any of the R candidates are Roy Moore in disguise, they're coasting.

Likely R: TX

Cruz isn't holding as big of a lead as the solids, but it's strongly persistent in a GOP state. Beto O'Rourke has a very small chance in TX, but even with Dems surging it's just not likely to happen. I think there's still a steep under 50% wall.

Lean R: None

Toss-up: FL, IN, ND, MO, TN

FL: Rick Scott has a solid base of support, and him and Bill Nelson have been trading small leads back and forth for some time. This will easily be Nelson's toughest re-election campaign. Can't say who is most likely to win right now.

IN: GOPers kinda lucked out when Mike Braun won the primary. He's probably the strongest candidate they had against Joe Donnelly. But on the other hand it was a pretty harsh primary and the vote was splintered pretty good, and Donnelly is a strong Dem candidate in a pretty Republican state. A gun to my head and I'd say Donnelly would win, but it'll be closer than in 2012.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp barely won in 2012, and I think few if anyone saw that coming. She'll be up against another strong contender in Kevin Cramer, the sole current representative of North Dakota. If Republicans flip any seats, this would be the one I'd see going first.

MO: Claire McCaskill has some sort of voodoo blessing on her. Last time she was given a really sh-tty candidate in Todd Akin wherein she vastly outperformed the polling. Josh Hawley is a better candidate against her, but he's also got the stink of disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens on him, somewhat. She's performing slightly better in overall polling than Nelson in FL, but it's also a more Republican state. Pure toss-up for now, but would lean it more Democratic if Greitens does end up running third-party as is rumored.

TN: The Dems really, really lucked out when former Gov. Phil Breseden announced he'd run for Senate. He won a gubernatorial race in 2006 by a lopsided margin and turned every county blue. A strong candidate that's liked on both sides. And on top of that Marsha Blackburn, the likely Republican candidate, isn't. Only reason it's a toss-up is because of how Republican the state is.

Lean D: AZ, MT, WV, NV

AZ: Jeff Flake is neither well-liked, nor running for re-election. Dems, again, lucked out with Kyrsten Sinema being the likely nominee. She's a popular, moderate Democrat who's a good fit for the state. She has solid, consistent leads against the three major GOP primary candidate, especially against the racist criminal Joe Arpaio who was booted out of his job in 2016. If after the primaries we see polling change due to a possible "coming home" factor from Republicans, it may go back to being toss-up.

MT: Jon Tester's fortunate to have a middling challenger in a Dem surge year, on top of the lone GOP representative, the one that bodyslammed a journalist then lied about it, having a tough re-election fight with a better challenger than an unknown musician . I think he'll have the best chance of winning in the Lean Dem bracket.

WV: Joe Manchin won strongly in 2012, in spite of Obama getting wrecked in West Virginia. This time around I think he's coming in a little weaker, but not enough to be in serious trouble. Patrick Morrisey isn't a weak opponent, but he's not particularly amazing. If convicted felon Don Blankenship really does run a third party challenge, he'll only fracture the Republican vote and let Manchin coast.

NV: Both candidates, Jacky Rosen and Dean Heller, won their primaries with strong margins. Rosen is generally leading in polls by a few points, and in the current environment it'd be tough for me see Heller win re-election. Weakest of the Lean Dems right now though because I think Republicans are a little more resilient in general that state than in say New Mexico.

Likely D: MN, MN Special, WI, OH, MI, NJ, PA, VA, NM

In spite of how well Trump did in the Rust Belt, Senate Dems over here aren't seeing strong challenges and in fact will probably easily win re-election. They almost had a shot against Tammy Baldwin in WI and Sherrod Brown in OH, but they're so far proving to be far stronger than expected.

Solid D: CA, MA, NY, DE, MD, CT, WA, HI, RI.

Solid I: VT, ME


Again, unless one of them is Roy Moore in a human suit, it ain't happening.

If the elections were today I think we'd see a straight 50D-50R Senate with North Dakota flipping to the Republicans and Arizona and Nevada going to the Democrats.

Feel free to tell my why I'm nuts lol.



Heck Wally you're nuts, but for what reason I am not aware of. :sooth

I am guessing that KS., not listed, will remain IYHO "R". I have some doubts myself for state newbie coming into office...

Yet our national reps should see :no changes..

WallyWager 07-07-2018 06:31 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mlurp (Post 939504)
Heck Wally you're nuts, but for what reason I am not aware of. :sooth

I am guessing that KS., not listed, will remain IYHO "R". I have some doubts myself for state newbie coming into office...

Yet our national reps should see :no changes..

There's no Senate race in Kansas this year.

As far as how R it is, I believe it's possible for Dems to pick off one or two of their Congressional districts, but that's the limit.

AZRWinger 07-08-2018 09:20 AM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lurch907 (Post 939496)
Solid analysis, Wally. Couple things I would predict differently though.

Likely R:
TX - I would put Cruz's seat in Solid R territory, I see him wining by at least 10 points.

Toss-up:
ND - I think this is where I would depart from your analysis the most. I would put ND in Leans or even Likely R. Cramer is very popular and liked in ND with a history of shellacking D opponents, as you noted Heitkamp barely won in 2012, Cramer is a stronger candidate than Berg was in 2012,and Trump won ND by 36 points in 2016. I'd give this seat a 75% chance of going R.

Leans D:
AZ - With McSally likely to win the GOP primary, I would lean this one the other way or maybe rate as a toss-up. Trump won AZ by just under 4 point with immigration as a big factor and with AZ's on going problems with illegal immigration a candidate that embraces Trump's enforcement policies will do well.

All-in-all I predict either no change to the senate seat count or R's +1. No change if Heller loses NV, +1 if Heller wins

I would add MO to the list of likely Republican pick ups. McCaskill doesn't have voodoo, she's got money. So much she donated to the Republican primary to hand pick her opponent. It's a trick ought to only work once. :thumbsup

mlurp 07-08-2018 04:10 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 940254)
There's no Senate race in Kansas this year.

As far as how R it is, I believe it's possible for Dems to pick off one or two of their Congressional districts, but that's the limit.



That's what I am saying.. Dems might take a few seats. One is to many and in my district..

GottaGo 07-08-2018 06:34 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 939272)
In a president's first midterm where the WH, House, and Senate are all GOP controlled, with an already-present surge in Democratic turnout, in spite of the lopsided number of seats that Democrats have to defend it looks like they're going to legitimately well this time around. Hasn't been since 2006 when they haven't gotten creamed in a midterm, much less did well. Anyway, here are my ratings. Obviously they may change because we're still a-ways from the election.

Solid R states: MS, MS Special, UT, ID, WY, NE

Unless any of the R candidates are Roy Moore in disguise, they're coasting.

Likely R: TX

Cruz isn't holding as big of a lead as the solids, but it's strongly persistent in a GOP state. Beto O'Rourke has a very small chance in TX, but even with Dems surging it's just not likely to happen. I think there's still a steep under 50% wall.

Lean R: None

Toss-up: FL, IN, ND, MO, TN

FL: Rick Scott has a solid base of support, and him and Bill Nelson have been trading small leads back and forth for some time. This will easily be Nelson's toughest re-election campaign. Can't say who is most likely to win right now.

IN: GOPers kinda lucked out when Mike Braun won the primary. He's probably the strongest candidate they had against Joe Donnelly. But on the other hand it was a pretty harsh primary and the vote was splintered pretty good, and Donnelly is a strong Dem candidate in a pretty Republican state. A gun to my head and I'd say Donnelly would win, but it'll be closer than in 2012.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp barely won in 2012, and I think few if anyone saw that coming. She'll be up against another strong contender in Kevin Cramer, the sole current representative of North Dakota. If Republicans flip any seats, this would be the one I'd see going first.

MO: Claire McCaskill has some sort of voodoo blessing on her. Last time she was given a really sh-tty candidate in Todd Akin wherein she vastly outperformed the polling. Josh Hawley is a better candidate against her, but he's also got the stink of disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens on him, somewhat. She's performing slightly better in overall polling than Nelson in FL, but it's also a more Republican state. Pure toss-up for now, but would lean it more Democratic if Greitens does end up running third-party as is rumored.

TN: The Dems really, really lucked out when former Gov. Phil Breseden announced he'd run for Senate. He won a gubernatorial race in 2006 by a lopsided margin and turned every county blue. A strong candidate that's liked on both sides. And on top of that Marsha Blackburn, the likely Republican candidate, isn't. Only reason it's a toss-up is because of how Republican the state is.

Lean D: AZ, MT, WV, NV

AZ: Jeff Flake is neither well-liked, nor running for re-election. Dems, again, lucked out with Kyrsten Sinema being the likely nominee. She's a popular, moderate Democrat who's a good fit for the state. She has solid, consistent leads against the three major GOP primary candidate, especially against the racist criminal Joe Arpaio who was booted out of his job in 2016. If after the primaries we see polling change due to a possible "coming home" factor from Republicans, it may go back to being toss-up.

MT: Jon Tester's fortunate to have a middling challenger in a Dem surge year, on top of the lone GOP representative, the one that bodyslammed a journalist then lied about it, having a tough re-election fight with a better challenger than an unknown musician . I think he'll have the best chance of winning in the Lean Dem bracket.

WV: Joe Manchin won strongly in 2012, in spite of Obama getting wrecked in West Virginia. This time around I think he's coming in a little weaker, but not enough to be in serious trouble. Patrick Morrisey isn't a weak opponent, but he's not particularly amazing. If convicted felon Don Blankenship really does run a third party challenge, he'll only fracture the Republican vote and let Manchin coast.

NV: Both candidates, Jacky Rosen and Dean Heller, won their primaries with strong margins. Rosen is generally leading in polls by a few points, and in the current environment it'd be tough for me see Heller win re-election. Weakest of the Lean Dems right now though because I think Republicans are a little more resilient in general that state than in say New Mexico.

Likely D: MN, MN Special, WI, OH, MI, NJ, PA, VA, NM

In spite of how well Trump did in the Rust Belt, Senate Dems over here aren't seeing strong challenges and in fact will probably easily win re-election. They almost had a shot against Tammy Baldwin in WI and Sherrod Brown in OH, but they're so far proving to be far stronger than expected.

Solid D: CA, MA, NY, DE, MD, CT, WA, HI, RI.

Solid I: VT, ME


Again, unless one of them is Roy Moore in a human suit, it ain't happening.

If the elections were today I think we'd see a straight 50D-50R Senate with North Dakota flipping to the Republicans and Arizona and Nevada going to the Democrats.

Feel free to tell my why I'm nuts lol.

TN is pretty strong behind Randy Boyd (NOT my choice)for Governor. It seems iffy right now on reps.

WallyWager 07-11-2018 11:02 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GottaGo (Post 940368)
TN is pretty strong behind Randy Boyd (NOT my choice)for Governor. It seems iffy right now on reps.

Other than the Senate race, I don't see much movement in the Governor or House races. The Congressional districts are very partisan, and I'm not confident yet that either a blue wave, or red one if we were in that environment, would see flippage.


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