Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > Political Forums > Elections
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Elections Discuss Wally's Senate guesses at the Political Forums; I'm moving Virginia from likely D to solid D. Corey Stewart is an even bigger sh-tshow than I thought possible. ...

Reply
 
Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #41 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2018, 11:42 AM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,376
Thanks: 1,540
Thanked 8,737 Times in 5,556 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

I'm moving Virginia from likely D to solid D. Corey Stewart is an even bigger sh-tshow than I thought possible. So much so he might end up dragging a couple of House seats down with him.

There's an Indiana poll that has Donnelly ahead by 12 and over 50%, (51-39) but I'm keeping that as a tossup until more data comes in. Could be a freak outlier.
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
  #42 (permalink)  
Old 08-23-2018, 01:18 AM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 53,291
Thanks: 2,074
Thanked 32,997 Times in 19,196 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post

Toss-up: FL, IN, ND, MO, TN

FL: Rick Scott has a solid base of support, and him and Bill Nelson have been trading small leads back and forth for some time. This will easily be Nelson's toughest re-election campaign. Can't say who is most likely to win right now.
What was a back-and-forth is now tipping...

Poll: Rick Scott increases lead over Bill Nelson to six points

Quote:
Still 11 weeks from their election showdown, Republican Gov. Rick Scott has opened up a six-point lead on Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, a new poll finds.

The poll from the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economic Polling Initiative gives Scott 45 percent, Nelson 39 percent, with 16 percent of voters still undecided in a head-to-head match-up in the Nov. 6 general election.

The trend is going Scott’s way. The last FAU-BEPI poll, released in July, had Scott leading Nelson 44-40 percent.

The FAU-BEPI findings propose the biggest lead yet for either candidate in any recent major polls in the race. Polls tracked in RealClearPolitics.com offer a spread of findings that have ranged from Scott being up by 5 percentage points, to Nelson up by 4, while generally showing Scott with the lead. RealClearPolitics gives the two-term governor a composite lead of just over 1 percentage point in the U.S. Senate race.

The FAU-BEPI data indicates that Scott’s position is fueled of course by solid Republican support, yet also by a strong lead among independent voters, who are picking him by a 19-point margin, 44-25 percent.
__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
  #43 (permalink)  
Old 08-23-2018, 01:05 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,376
Thanks: 1,540
Thanked 8,737 Times in 5,556 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
What was a back-and-forth is now tipping...

Poll: Rick Scott increases lead over Bill Nelson to six points
It's looking like it, and because of that I'm moving Florida from toss-up to Lean R. This can change though after the primary and after Bill Nelson start pumping out more ads, provided he doesn't take too long. Rick Scott has already spent over $20 million on this campaign, 5x what Nelson has spent.

So change: FL goes from Tossup to Lean R.

And thus if the election were held today IMO, the GOP would get North Dakota and Florida, and the Dems would gain in Arizona and Nevada end at 51R-47D-2I
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
  #44 (permalink)  
Old 08-23-2018, 11:10 PM
cnredd's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Gender: Male
Posts: 53,291
Thanks: 2,074
Thanked 32,997 Times in 19,196 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
It's looking like it, and because of that I'm moving Florida from toss-up to Lean R. This can change though after the primary and after Bill Nelson start pumping out more ads, provided he doesn't take too long. Rick Scott has already spent over $20 million on this campaign, 5x what Nelson has spent.

So change: FL goes from Tossup to Lean R.

And thus if the election were held today IMO, the GOP would get North Dakota and Florida, and the Dems would gain in Arizona and Nevada end at 51R-47D-2I
I believe you "may" be missing something...

There are multiple states with Democrat seats (like Missouri), where Trump won...That's the most recent election...Turning it BACK to blue will break that tend...

To wit...

'Pivot counties' will be key in fight for Senate control

Quote:
The 2018 battlegrounds are full of so-called “pivot counties” like Tippecanoe – those that voted “blue” for Senate six years ago and “red” for president four years later. And they will be key in the fight for Senate control this fall.

There are 54 such counties in Michigan, 52 in West Virginia, 50 in Missouri, 24 in Wisconsin, 22 in Indiana, 22 in North Dakota, 21 in Florida, 17 in Ohio, 10 in Montana and six in Pennsylvania.

All 10 of those states backed Trump in 2016, and all have incumbent Democratic senators seeking re-election this fall. The fates of those incumbents will depend in part on whether they can win over at least some Trump voters and replicate the success they had six years ago on unfavorable turf.

Collectively, those 10 Democratic incumbents won 278 counties in 2012 that went on to vote for Trump. Most of these places are overwhelmingly white. A majority are at least modestly Republican. But all have some history of split-ticket voting.
A close race in a state that Trump or Hillary won by a couple of points might not matter, but in states where Trump won by more than that means the Democrat incumbent is going to have to try to get (at least) some, if not many, of those voters back in order to kept around...

That's probably going to be much tougher considering the Democrat Party, in general, has shown disdain towards those voters...They've been trying to get more flies with vinegar rather than honey the last two+ years...
__________________
"You get the respect that you give" - cnredd
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to cnredd For This Useful Post:
  #45 (permalink)  
Old 08-24-2018, 12:30 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,376
Thanks: 1,540
Thanked 8,737 Times in 5,556 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
I believe you "may" be missing something...

There are multiple states with Democrat seats (like Missouri), where Trump won...That's the most recent election...Turning it BACK to blue will break that tend...

To wit...

'Pivot counties' will be key in fight for Senate control



A close race in a state that Trump or Hillary won by a couple of points might not matter, but in states where Trump won by more than that means the Democrat incumbent is going to have to try to get (at least) some, if not many, of those voters back in order to kept around...

That's probably going to be much tougher considering the Democrat Party, in general, has shown disdain towards those voters...They've been trying to get more flies with vinegar rather than honey the last two+ years...
I think you'll see a lot of these counties flip back, especially in the Midwest where there's been a big pushback against Trump. An energized Democratic base and strong candidates will more than likely rebuild the so-called "Blue Wall".
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones

Last edited by WallyWager; 08-24-2018 at 05:44 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #46 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2018, 09:44 AM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,376
Thanks: 1,540
Thanked 8,737 Times in 5,556 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Making another change. I'm moving Texas from Likely R to Lean R. Beto O'Rourke has been closing the gap in both the polls and fundraising. I still think Ted Cruz will pull it off, but the margin if he wins will be a lot closer than in 2012.
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #47 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2018, 11:43 AM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,376
Thanks: 1,540
Thanked 8,737 Times in 5,556 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Florida's changing again: Moving from Lean R back to tossup.

Bill Nelson has finally started seriously campaiging and has make up ground and closed the gap in the latest polls. PPP has him at +1, and Gravis and Quinnipiac have the race tied at 47-47 and 49-49 respectively.
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #48 (permalink)  
Old 09-11-2018, 12:23 AM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 11,376
Thanks: 1,540
Thanked 8,737 Times in 5,556 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

I'm moving Michigan from Likely D to Solid D. Debbie Stabenow's lead over John James has only solidified since the primary, with the last three polls having her up 16, 18, and 23(!) points and she's over 50% in all of them + high personal favorable ratings. Unfortunately for James, he's raised little money and is still pretty unknown even only less than two months from the election. He's just not getting any real traction.
__________________
"There's two types of people: people that look at porn, and people that lie about it. But I wasn't looking!" -

Alex Jones
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #49 (permalink)  
Old 09-11-2018, 12:17 PM
lurch907's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Alaska, the greatest place on earth.
Gender: Male
Posts: 4,602
Thanks: 1,039
Thanked 2,944 Times in 1,712 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Making another change. I'm moving Texas from Likely R to Lean R. Beto O'Rourke has been closing the gap in both the polls and fundraising. I still think Ted Cruz will pull it off, but the margin if he wins will be a lot closer than in 2012.
I think the D's are projecting a lot of wishful thinking on Texas. I still have Texas as solid R and see no reason why Cruz won't win by 10 points + or - 1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager
Florida's changing again: Moving from Lean R back to tossup.

Bill Nelson has finally started seriously campaiging and has make up ground and closed the gap in the latest polls. PPP has him at +1, and Gravis and Quinnipiac have the race tied at 47-47 and 49-49 respectively.
I hate polls, they rarely say anything other than the buyers bias, PPP being one of the worst. I leave this one in Lean R (close to Likely) Scott is a great end of race campaigner, expect him to pull away over the next two months. Scott by 5 points.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager
I'm moving Michigan from Likely D to Solid D. Debbie Stabenow's lead over John James has only solidified since the primary, with the last three polls having her up 16, 18, and 23(!) points and she's over 50% in all of them + high personal favorable ratings. Unfortunately for James, he's raised little money and is still pretty unknown even only less than two months from the election. He's just not getting any real traction.
I think you are right on on this one. John James will go down in the history books as an "Also Ran" vs Stabenow. Even though Michigan can be notoriously hard to pick, James is done like dinner.
Reply With Quote
  #50 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2018, 11:16 AM
lurch907's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Alaska, the greatest place on earth.
Gender: Male
Posts: 4,602
Thanks: 1,039
Thanked 2,944 Times in 1,712 Posts
Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quick note:

In TN, Blackburn is doing better than I expected against a strong D candidate. Her message appears to be resonating with voters there. I still have it as a toss-up, but it's getting very close to leans R.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
guesses, senate, wally

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0