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Elections Discuss Wally's Senate guesses at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by cnredd RCP has it as a complete toss-up... And I agree, as I put this race in ...

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Old 07-21-2018, 11:37 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
RCP has it as a complete toss-up...
And I agree, as I put this race in the toss-up category in my initial post. They've got two polls from since February, and what little they've got they're pretty close. It's true that Kevin Cramer is a stronger candidate than Rick Berg in 2012 and Trump won this state by a lot, but it's also true that Democrats in general are doing better than in 2012, Heidi Heitkamp has a big fundraising advantage, and incumbency almost always seems to get a boost.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/su...e=2018&id=NDS2

I'm honest when I say it's a tough race to nail down.
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Old 07-23-2018, 08:50 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses



Watch out Cocaine Mitch, Don's back for the sake of the kids.
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Old 07-23-2018, 09:56 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Mr. Blankenship does not expect the filing to be certified...
...but he doesn't explain why...

EDIT - This appears to be why...

Don Blankenship Set to Challenge 'Sore Loser' Law with Constitution Party Filing for U.S. Senate

Quote:
A former coal executive who spent a year in prison is set to challenge West Virginia’s “sore loser” election law by running for U.S. Senate as a member of the Constitution Party following a failed bid for the Republican Party nomination.

In a statement issued Monday, Don Blankenship’s campaign representatives already said they do not expect the filing to be certified and will challenge the anticipated denial.

West Virginia has a sore loser law that prevents candidates who lost a primary election from taking advantage of later filing deadlines to run on a third-party ticket.

"The political establishment cannot retroactively enact laws that prohibit individuals who become members of some political parties from being on the ballot while allowing individuals who become members of other political parties to be on the ballot," the campagin said in a statement posted to Facebook.
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Old 07-23-2018, 10:59 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
...but he doesn't explain why...

EDIT - This appears to be why...

Don Blankenship Set to Challenge 'Sore Loser' Law with Constitution Party Filing for U.S. Senate
Welp, if he can't successfully challenge the sore loser law, then it's back to lean Dem for WV. But it's on razor's edge.
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Old 07-24-2018, 11:24 AM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Welp, if he can't successfully challenge the sore loser law, then it's back to lean Dem for WV. But it's on razor's edge.
If I was the conspiracy theory type (I'm not) I'd have to wonder what Blankenship is expecting from McConnell after throwing him the race.
In reality Blankenship is most likely just a sore loser that doesn't want to see the guy that beat him win.
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Old 07-24-2018, 11:00 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
If I was the conspiracy theory type (I'm not) I'd have to wonder what Blankenship is expecting from McConnell after throwing him the race.
In reality Blankenship is most likely just a sore loser that doesn't want to see the guy that beat him win.
Maybe Cocaine Mitch promised him a little snow under the table.
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Old 07-25-2018, 08:59 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Not direct Senate numbers, but more a general environment overview for where we in the Upper Midwest. Gotta say, not good if anyone is hoping Trump will help with the vote up here. Tariffs probably are doing more harm than good as well.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...states-n894556





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Old 07-25-2018, 11:01 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Not direct Senate numbers, but more a general environment overview for where we in the Upper Midwest. Gotta say, not good if anyone is hoping Trump will help with the vote up here. Tariffs probably are doing more harm than good as well.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...states-n894556





Standard Operating Polling Procedures...

Minnesota poll - 33% Democrat, 23% Republican, 42% Independent

Wisconsin poll - 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Michigan poll - ALSO 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Of course, "Independent" means nothing since they could all be Democrat-voting Democrat Socialist or Democrat-voting Green Party, but why would an "objective" outlet do that?...
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Old 07-25-2018, 11:08 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
Standard Operating Polling Procedures...

Minnesota poll - 33% Democrat, 23% Republican, 42% Independent

Wisconsin poll - 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Michigan poll - ALSO 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Of course, "Independent" means nothing since they could all be Democrat-voting Democrat Socialist or Democrat-voting Green Party, but why would an "objective" outlet do that?...
That looks pretty on par with how those states typically roll out demographic wise.

I hope you're not hoping that the independents are all secretly on the left and Marist is purposefully skewing the polls.
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Old 07-25-2018, 11:19 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
Standard Operating Polling Procedures...

Minnesota poll - 33% Democrat, 23% Republican, 42% Independent

Wisconsin poll - 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Michigan poll - ALSO 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Of course, "Independent" means nothing since they could all be Democrat-voting Democrat Socialist or Democrat-voting Green Party, but why would an "objective" outlet do that?...
Thankfully Marist did break it down by ideology, just below party identification:

Michigan
Very liberal 10%
Liberal 17%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 29%
Very conservative 9%

Minnesota
Very liberal 9%
Liberal 21%
Moderate 34%
Conservative 27%
Very conservative 8%

Wisconsin
Very liberal 9%
Liberal 21%
Moderate 31%
Conservative 27%
Very conservative 12%
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