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-   -   Wally's Senate guesses (http://www.politicalwrinkles.com/elections/55260-wallys-senate-guesses.html)

WallyWager 07-21-2018 11:37 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd (Post 942185)
RCP has it as a complete toss-up...

And I agree, as I put this race in the toss-up category in my initial post. They've got two polls from since February, and what little they've got they're pretty close. It's true that Kevin Cramer is a stronger candidate than Rick Berg in 2012 and Trump won this state by a lot, but it's also true that Democrats in general are doing better than in 2012, Heidi Heitkamp has a big fundraising advantage, and incumbency almost always seems to get a boost.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/su...e=2018&id=NDS2

I'm honest when I say it's a tough race to nail down. :yes

WallyWager 07-23-2018 08:50 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Di0LeWmX0AYucdq.jpg

Watch out Cocaine Mitch, Don's back for the sake of the kids.

cnredd 07-23-2018 09:56 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Mr. Blankenship does not expect the filing to be certified...
...but he doesn't explain why...:no :confused

EDIT - This appears to be why...:yes

Don Blankenship Set to Challenge 'Sore Loser' Law with Constitution Party Filing for U.S. Senate

Quote:

A former coal executive who spent a year in prison is set to challenge West Virginia’s “sore loser” election law by running for U.S. Senate as a member of the Constitution Party following a failed bid for the Republican Party nomination.

In a statement issued Monday, Don Blankenship’s campaign representatives already said they do not expect the filing to be certified and will challenge the anticipated denial.

West Virginia has a sore loser law that prevents candidates who lost a primary election from taking advantage of later filing deadlines to run on a third-party ticket.

"The political establishment cannot retroactively enact laws that prohibit individuals who become members of some political parties from being on the ballot while allowing individuals who become members of other political parties to be on the ballot," the campagin said in a statement posted to Facebook.

WallyWager 07-23-2018 10:59 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd (Post 942430)
...but he doesn't explain why...:no :confused

EDIT - This appears to be why...:yes

Don Blankenship Set to Challenge 'Sore Loser' Law with Constitution Party Filing for U.S. Senate

Welp, if he can't successfully challenge the sore loser law, then it's back to lean Dem for WV. But it's on razor's edge.

lurch907 07-24-2018 11:24 AM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 942437)
Welp, if he can't successfully challenge the sore loser law, then it's back to lean Dem for WV. But it's on razor's edge.

If I was the conspiracy theory type (I'm not) I'd have to wonder what Blankenship is expecting from McConnell after throwing him the race.
In reality Blankenship is most likely just a sore loser that doesn't want to see the guy that beat him win.

WallyWager 07-24-2018 11:00 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lurch907 (Post 942479)
If I was the conspiracy theory type (I'm not) I'd have to wonder what Blankenship is expecting from McConnell after throwing him the race.
In reality Blankenship is most likely just a sore loser that doesn't want to see the guy that beat him win.

Maybe Cocaine Mitch promised him a little snow under the table. :shrug

WallyWager 07-25-2018 08:59 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Not direct Senate numbers, but more a general environment overview for where we in the Upper Midwest. Gotta say, not good if anyone is hoping Trump will help with the vote up here. Tariffs probably are doing more harm than good as well.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...states-n894556

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...f.fit-560w.png

https://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...4.fit-560w.png

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...1.fit-560w.png

cnredd 07-25-2018 11:01 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyWager (Post 942728)
Not direct Senate numbers, but more a general environment overview for where we in the Upper Midwest. Gotta say, not good if anyone is hoping Trump will help with the vote up here. Tariffs probably are doing more harm than good as well.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...states-n894556

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...f.fit-560w.png

https://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...4.fit-560w.png

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...1.fit-560w.png

Standard Operating Polling Procedures...:yawn

Minnesota poll - 33% Democrat, 23% Republican, 42% Independent

Wisconsin poll - 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Michigan poll - ALSO 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Of course, "Independent" means nothing since they could all be Democrat-voting Democrat Socialist or Democrat-voting Green Party, but why would an "objective" outlet do that?...:rofl2

WallyWager 07-25-2018 11:08 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd (Post 942745)
Standard Operating Polling Procedures...:yawn

Minnesota poll - 33% Democrat, 23% Republican, 42% Independent

Wisconsin poll - 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Michigan poll - ALSO 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Of course, "Independent" means nothing since they could all be Democrat-voting Democrat Socialist or Democrat-voting Green Party, but why would an "objective" outlet do that?...:rofl2

That looks pretty on par with how those states typically roll out demographic wise.

I hope you're not hoping that the independents are all secretly on the left and Marist is purposefully skewing the polls.

WallyWager 07-25-2018 11:19 PM

Re: Wally's Senate guesses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd (Post 942745)
Standard Operating Polling Procedures...:yawn

Minnesota poll - 33% Democrat, 23% Republican, 42% Independent

Wisconsin poll - 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Michigan poll - ALSO 32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 41% Independent

Of course, "Independent" means nothing since they could all be Democrat-voting Democrat Socialist or Democrat-voting Green Party, but why would an "objective" outlet do that?...:rofl2

Thankfully Marist did break it down by ideology, just below party identification:

Michigan
Very liberal 10%
Liberal 17%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 29%
Very conservative 9%

Minnesota
Very liberal 9%
Liberal 21%
Moderate 34%
Conservative 27%
Very conservative 8%

Wisconsin
Very liberal 9%
Liberal 21%
Moderate 31%
Conservative 27%
Very conservative 12%


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