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Elections Discuss Wally's Senate guesses at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by WallyWager Other than the Senate race, I don't see much movement in the Governor or House races. ...

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Old 07-11-2018, 11:27 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Other than the Senate race, I don't see much movement in the Governor or House races. The Congressional districts are very partisan, and I'm not confident yet that either a blue wave, or red one if we were in that environment, would see flippage.
I believe the "magic" number is 23 for Dems to take the House...

Always doable in midterms, but "likely"???...
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Old 07-12-2018, 01:01 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

The Democrats will have their asses handed to them again. MHO.
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Old 07-15-2018, 08:04 AM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

I have to worry as former Governor Brownback, was so behind the times plus D. Trump, "art of the deal' is confusion which many don't understand!


So I worry KS., might go Dem.. As possible with the House in DC.....
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Old 07-20-2018, 03:54 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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I believe the "magic" number is 23 for Dems to take the House...

Always doable in midterms, but "likely"???...
It's looking more doable almost by the day.

Senate's still I think a good uphill climb.

BTW: Updating my guesses.

WV I'm moving from lean to likely Dem. Blankenship looks like he's going for this third party run, and Manchin's polling has improved even with Don in the mix. This is bad for Republicans thinking they could flip this seat,

NJ I'm moving from likely to lean Dem. Bob Menendez has been polling much more poorly lately, and he is a bit of a corrupt d-ck. He'll probably get by thanks to the political environment in this midterm, but if it were say 2014 he'd be in an assload of trouble.
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Old 07-20-2018, 04:00 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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It's looking more doable almost by the day.

Senate's still I think a good uphill climb.

BTW: Updating my guesses.

WV I'm moving from lean to likely Dem. Blankenship looks like he's going for this third party run, and Manchin's polling has improved even with Don in the mix. This is bad for Republicans thinking they could flip this seat,

NJ I'm moving from likely to lean Dem. Bob Menendez has been polling much more poorly lately, and he is a bit of a corrupt d-ck. He'll probably get by thanks to the political environment in this midterm, but if it were say 2014 he'd be in an assload of trouble.
I use to think "Oh he's in trouble! He's toast!"........................................... ................................until Dick Durbin got reelected after trashing the troops during the Iraq War and Marion Barry getting elected to the DC city council...

All logical bets are off...
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Old 07-20-2018, 04:51 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
BTW: Updating my guesses.

WV I'm moving from lean to likely Dem. Blankenship looks like he's going for this third party run, and Manchin's polling has improved even with Don in the mix. This is bad for Republicans thinking they could flip this seat,

NJ I'm moving from likely to lean Dem. Bob Menendez has been polling much more poorly lately, and he is a bit of a corrupt d-ck. He'll probably get by thanks to the political environment in this midterm, but if it were say 2014 he'd be in an assload of trouble.
I think your pretty solid on these two.
I think you still have ND wrong though, Heitkamp is in serious trouble against Kramer. I put this one as "likely red" at this point.
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:49 PM
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I think your pretty solid on these two.
I think you still have ND wrong though, Heitkamp is in serious trouble against Kramer. I put this one as "likely red" at this point.
When I see more data, I'll consider changing my guess. Polling is unfortunately a bit iffy in ND. If there's more out there showing good signs for Kramer, I'll consider moving it to lean R, but likely R will need more than that

I'd agree with you right now if this were a Republican midterm year.
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Old 07-20-2018, 06:39 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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When I see more data, I'll consider changing my guess. Polling is unfortunately a bit iffy in ND. If there's more out there showing good signs for Kramer, I'll consider moving it to lean R, but likely R will need more than that

I'd agree with you right now if this were a Republican midterm year.
Polling in general would have to get a lot better to reach the level of "a bit iffy".
Personally, I don't use them when predicting elections. Factors I'm using:
- In 2012 Heitkamp barely squeaked by a lame republican opponent.
- ND is a very red state, in 2016 Trump won ND by 36+ points.
- Cramer, her opponent this time, is anything but lame. Since 2012 he has defended his seat in the house by ever increasing margins. In 2016 he shellacked his D opponent by 45+ points. He is very well liked in ND.

Anything is possible in an election of course, but assuming no big scandal between now and November, I see this as a duplicate of Mark Begich trying to hold his seat in 2014.
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Old 07-21-2018, 12:27 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
Polling in general would have to get a lot better to reach the level of "a bit iffy".
Personally, I don't use them when predicting elections. Factors I'm using:
- In 2012 Heitkamp barely squeaked by a lame republican opponent.
- ND is a very red state, in 2016 Trump won ND by 36+ points.
- Cramer, her opponent this time, is anything but lame. Since 2012 he has defended his seat in the house by ever increasing margins. In 2016 he shellacked his D opponent by 45+ points. He is very well liked in ND.

Anything is possible in an election of course, but assuming no big scandal between now and November, I see this as a duplicate of Mark Begich trying to hold his seat in 2014.
It does vote Republican for president, but for a long time it has sent Democrats to the Senate, 2010 being the exemption.

In 2012, when Heitkamp did just squeak by, Democrats won the the generic congressional ballot by only 1.2%

This year however is seeing a much larger shift towards the Democrats who currently lead the polls by a 7.7%. On top of that Heitkamp does have a net positive approval rating and will go in with the benefit of incumbency in a midterm benefiting the Democrats.

So you can see why I'm not moving my prediction just now.
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Old 07-21-2018, 12:40 PM
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Default Re: Wally's Senate guesses

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
It does vote Republican for president, but for a long time it has sent Democrats to the Senate, 2010 being the exemption.

In 2012, when Heitkamp did just squeak by, Democrats won the the generic congressional ballot by only 1.2%

This year however is seeing a much larger shift towards the Democrats who currently lead the polls by a 7.7%. On top of that Heitkamp does have a net positive approval rating and will go in with the benefit of incumbency in a midterm benefiting the Democrats.

So you can see why I'm not moving my prediction just now.
RCP has it as a complete toss-up...

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