McCain's path to victory through Pa.

saltwn · #1 (**permalink**) 10-22-2008, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Facing seemingly limited options for getting to an Electoral College majority, John McCain’s path to victory likely runs through Pennsylvania, a state that no Republican presidential candidate has won in two decades, a state in which he trails in the polls by a wide margin and a state where in the past year more than a half-million new Democrats have been added to the voter registration rolls.

It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.

“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”

“I don’t believe there’s a double-digit lead,” said Jon Delano, a western Pennsylvania-based political analyst who also serves as an adjunct professor of Public Policy and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University. “The history of the presidential elections here is different.”

Even top Democrats concede that McCain’s deficit in the polls — 11 percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average — isn’t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell had sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania.

MORE OF THIS STORY
Gosh I like a close football game, and admittedly I still want my candidate to win. But there are signs this election will have had zero boring moments!

cnredd · #2 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn

MORE OF THIS STORY
Gosh I like a close football game, and admittedly I still want my candidate to win. But there are signs this election will have had zero boring moments!

The reason is because the polls are directing things the way they WANT them to be and not really reality...

You've probably heard that Obama's up by double digits in PA...That's because they WANT you to believe he's up by double digits in PA...

Even Obama's campaign knows better...

Rumor: Obama's internals in PA apparently leaked

Quote:

Apparently, Obama's internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.

Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

This has caught on like wildfire in the right wing blogs and seems to have raised their spirits.

This is important because, if it is true, it undermines the argument that we have a substantial partyId advantage this year.

A partyId of at least +6 this year seems reasonable, as many pollsters are showing. Many rightwingers are arguing that the breakdown should be a push, like 2004, which is ridiculous. However the rumor of +2 in PA reinforces their argument. And that's the last hope they have left.

Of course this is good news for McCain...So what does Obama's minions at DailyKos have to say about it?...

Quote:

We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further. I don't want them to have any hope left, Let's crush their spirits!

I don't just disagree with with policy...I disagree with policy and I hate you...

saltwn · #3 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:30 PM

I don't think the KOS is repreentative of new voters who are voting for Obama and simulteaneously casting their first ballot ever. Nor do I think seniors worried about their social security and the fact the Republicans have lead us to the brink of another depression read daily KOS.
But you keep reading it if it helps you hate Dems better!

cnredd · #4 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn

I don't think the KOS is repreentative of new voters who are voting for Obama and simulteaneously casting their first ballot ever. Nor do I think seniors worried about their social security and the fact the Republicans have lead us to the brink of another depression read daily KOS.
But you keep reading it if it helps you hate Dems better!

Of course, the story itself, in which a radio host received an internal memo from the Obama campaign (which they ADMIT) saying the public polls are wrong is totally discarded in your response...

saltwn · #5 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd

Of course, the story itself, in which a radio host received an internal memo from the Obama campaign (which they ADMIT) saying the public polls are wrong is totally discarded in your response...

I thought debate was about responding to the other's attacks.
Let's see. No that's wrong. It's about you keep me to an honest agenda while you can make jabs all day and I cannot respond to them. Got it!

dga · #6 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd

Of course, the story itself, in which a radio host received an internal memo from the Obama campaign (which they ADMIT) saying the public polls are wrong is totally discarded in your response...

What exactly is it that you expect? A condemnation to Obama for not correcting the polls? Is that what McCain would do? Or let me guess, yet another conspiracy to discourage Republicans from voting because they think their vote won't count??? As if. Your conspiracy theories are exhausting,

.

Apparently everyone 'in the know' knows that there isn't a double digit lead, even the ever hated Dems:

Even top Democrats concede that McCain’s deficit in the polls — 11 percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average — isn’t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell had sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania. (Quote from the ORIGINAL article).

cnredd · #7 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dga

What exactly is it that you expect? A condemnation to Obama for not correcting the polls? Is that what McCain would do? Or let me guess, yet another conspiracy to discourage Republicans from voting because they think their vote won't count??? As if. Your conspiracy theories are exhausting,

.

Nothing of the sort...

The issue which salty brought up (The Dems wanting Obama to come back to PA) is because the public polls are different from what the campaigns are polling internally...

It's a time honored tradition that happens every election...

How Accurate are the 2008 Polls?

Quote:

D. J. Drummond writes, "The polls are wrong this year, very wrong." (via Instapundit)

I believe that Obama is leading McCain right now, but, like others, I question the purported margin of the lead.

For supporting evidence, examine the pollsters' most recent, past performance.

In 2006, the Democrats won the aggregate US House vote by 7.9% over the Republicans.

Yet, an average of 35 different 2006 polls compiled from October through the November 2006 election purportedly showed the Dems with a 14.2% point lead over the Repubs in the generic House vote -- an overestimation of more than 6% points.

It's certainly something to keep in mind, as we wrote back in November 2006.

Here's the list:

FOX News 11/04 - 11/05, Democrats +13
CNN 11/03 - 11/05, Democrats +20
USA Today/Gallup 11/02 - 11/05, Democrats +7
ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04, Democrats +6
Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04, Democrats +4
Newsweek 11/02 - 11/03, Democrats +16
Time 11/01 - 11/03, Democrats +15
CBS News/NY Times 10/27 - 10/31, Democrats +18
NBC/WSJ 10/28 - 10/30, Democrats +15
CNN 10/27 - 10/29, Democrats +11
Cook/RT Strategies 10/26 - 10/29, Democrats +23
Newsweek 10/26 - 10/27, Democrats +15
FOX News 10/24 - 10/25, Democrats +11
AP-Ipsos 10/20 - 10/25, Democrats +19
Zogby 10/20 - 10/23, Democrats +11
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/23, Democrats +18
USA Today/Gallup 10/20 - 10/22, Democrats +13
CNN 10/20 - 10/22, Democrats +17
ABC News/Wash Post 10/19 - 10/22, Democrats +14
Cook/RT Strategies 10/19 - 10/22, Democrats +22
Pew Research 10/17 - 10/22, Democrats +11
Newsweek 10/19 - 10/20, Democrats +18
NBC/WSJ 10/13 - 10/16, Democrats +15
CNN 10/13 - 10/15, Democrats +16
FOX News 10/10 - 10/11, Democrats +9
Harris 10/06 - 10/09, Democrats +12
USA Today/Gallup 10/06 - 10/08, Democrats +23
CNN 10/06 - 10/08, Democrats +21
CBS News/NY Times 10/05 - 10/08, Democrats +14
ABC News/Wash Post 10/05 - 10/08, Democrats +13
Cook/RT Strategies 10/05 - 10/08, Democrats +11
Newsweek 10/05 - 10/06, Democrats +12
Time 10/03 - 10/04, Democrats +15
AP-Ipsos 10/02 - 10/04, Democrats +10

How about the last presidential election when all of the exit polling had Kerry up the whole day?...

Whether or not there's a conspiracy; I'll leave that to you...

But one thing is clear...The percentages in polls compared to reality have been skewed in the public time and time again...

saltwn · #8 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 03:08 PM

This is, after all. politics.
It could very well be that Obama is doing better than the polls show and he doesn't want to lose momentum by being lazy. Could be the whole state of Pennsylvania is secretly going to vote for McCain when push comes to shove and they are alone in that voting cubicle.
Republicans skewer their way and Democrats another.
We won't know till the end of the day. And hopefully there will be no "Florida fiasco" to add confusion and uncertainty.

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