Bill Clinton in Denver again undercuts Obama - Page 2

faithful_servant · #11 (**permalink**) 08-26-2008, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

Ouch!!! I agreed Clinton had a big mouth. Not that he was is expressing my opinion of Obama or McCain. But they are following him waiting for remarks like they followed Gary Hart. And with the same success. Bill keeps sticking his foot in Obama's ass.

Well Hillary can't do it (too un-PC and DNC-incorrect), so she's gonna set her hubby an the big old bad Obama. IMO, if Hillary could get away with not looking like a complete power-hungry pol, I think that we'd see her campaigning for McCain and painting herself as an aisle-crossing moderate.

I just had a weird thought - What would happen if McCain picked Hillary as his VP??

dabateman · #12 (**permalink**) 08-26-2008, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by faithful_servant

Well Hillary can't do it (too un-PC and DNC-incorrect), so she's gonna set her hubby an the big old bad Obama. IMO, if Hillary could get away with not looking like a complete power-hungry pol, I think that we'd see her campaigning for McCain and painting herself as an aisle-crossing moderate.

I just had a weird thought - What would happen if McCain picked Hillary as his VP??

McCain would lose the election by one of the biggest electoral margins ever recorded as the Democrats are going to vote Democratic and the Republicans would abandon him quicker than quicker than the passengers of a sinking ship.

Mikeyy · #13 (**permalink**) 08-26-2008, 08:23 PM

Or it might be that she is happy to remain a full time senator. So why not be gracious.

cnredd · #14 (**permalink**) 08-26-2008, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by faithful_servant

I just had a weird thought - What would happen if McCain picked Hillary as his VP??

There would be cracks in the continents and holes would open and the population and landscape of the earth would collapse in on itself...

faithful_servant · #15 (**permalink**) 08-27-2008, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dabateman

McCain would lose the election by one of the biggest electoral margins ever recorded as the Democrats are going to vote Democratic and the Republicans would abandon him quicker than quicker than the passengers of a sinking ship.

I don't know. I think that they'd pull in a huge voting block of Hillary supporters and that the more moderate Reps. would vote for the ticket while the more conservative Reps. would do what they are already planning on doing - holding thier noses and voting for McCain.

Mikeyy · #16 (**permalink**) 08-27-2008, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by faithful_servant

I don't know. I think that they'd pull in a huge voting block of Hillary supporters and that the more moderate Reps. would vote for the ticket while the more conservative Reps. would do what they are already planning on doing - holding thier noses and voting for McCain.

You know what is interesting? And I don't mean this as a partisan statement. But we all know that there are Republicans who are going to vote Democrat this time. I actually know a few. So why is that story not being covered? They find every lefty that says they will not vote for Obama. But I never see them interview the unhappy Reps. Again, I don't mean this as a whiny lefty. Its just curious how the media decides the parameters of coverage to fit their assumptions.

cnredd · #17 (**permalink**) 08-27-2008, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

You know what is interesting? And I don't mean this as a partisan statement. But we all know that there are Republicans who are going to vote Democrat this time. I actually know a few. So why is that story not being covered? They find every lefty that says they will not vote for Obama. But I never see them interview the unhappy Reps. Again, I don't mean this as a whiny lefty. Its just curious how the media decides the parameters of coverage to fit their assumptions.

Because McCain is keeping more of his BASE than Obama is...

From today's Gallup...Conservative Democrats Peeling Away From Obama

(They have a few charts that I don't feel like photobucketing at the link)...

Quote:

Barack Obama has been struggling to maintain his Democratic base thus far in August, and according to weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, the problem seems to be with conservative Democrats.

Within the Democratic Party, Obama's losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.

As a result of this, support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama's support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.

The 78% of Democrats backing Obama from Aug. 18-24 ties for the lowest seen since early June. The 7% of Republicans for Obama is the lowest to date (since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the Obama-McCain race in March).

Among Republicans, Obama has mainly seen his support eroding among moderate and liberal Republicans, from 19% to 13% during August. Already at 4% to 6% in July and early August, Obama's support from conservative Republicans could not go much lower.

Obama's troubles are also evident among married women. Between Aug. 4-10 and Aug. 18-24, the percentage of married women backing Obama fell from 46% to 39%, while support from unmarried women fell from 58% to 55%. At the same time, there has been no decrease in the percentage of married or unmarried men supporting Obama.

Bottom Line

Obama held the slight upper hand in the race from early June through mid-August. His failure to maintain that last week -- averaging a tie with McCain at 45% -- can be largely explained by some defection from the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, as well as less crossover support from moderate and liberal Republicans.

Given these contradictory partisan trends, and the fact that Gallup finds no clear pattern in the recent weekly presidential preference trends by religion, there does not seem to be a coherent ideological or religious basis to the shift (such as might be explained by the controversy over Obama's views on abortion).

It will be important to see whether Obama's erstwhile supporters -- particularly conservative Democrats -- come back to the fold this week as they watch the Democratic National Convention and take a fresh look at their new nominee for president.

Mikeyy · #18 (**permalink**) 08-27-2008, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd

Because McCain is keeping more of his BASE than Obama is...

From today's Gallup...Conservative Democrats Peeling Away From Obama

(They have a few charts that I don't feel like photobucketing at the link)...

I honestly don't know where they get those numbers. Because I really do know many people who voted for GWB twice that swear they are voting for Obama.
But besides the point I made still stands. I can take you to ten people today that I am talking about. They are not that hard to find

cnredd · #19 (**permalink**) 08-27-2008, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeyy

I honestly don't know where they get those numbers. Because I really do know many people who voted for GWB twice that swear they are voting for Obama.
But besides the point I made still stands. I can take you to ten people today that I am talking about. They are not that hard to find

Bradley effect

Quote:

The term Bradley effect or (less commonly)the Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to frequent inaccurate voter opinion polls in many American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there were instances in which such elections saw the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls.

Researchers who studied the issue theorized that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. This theory suggested that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots.

There's also a simple explanation that they SAY they are voting for an individual based purely on the location or the company they keep...

There are probably hundreds of conservatives in Hollywood that are saying they are voting for Obama (or just outright keeping their mouth shut) for fear or retribution and blacklisting...

Mikeyy · #20 (**permalink**) 08-27-2008, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnredd

Bradley effect

There's also a simple explanation that they SAY they are voting for an individual based purely on the location or the company they keep...

There are probably hundreds of conservatives in Hollywood that are saying they are voting for Obama (or just outright keeping their mouth shut) for fear or retribution and blacklisting...

Well that explains the right. But what about the left.

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