I just thought it would be helpful to post the Intrade spread and some reputable polls from time to time. Tonight was the first night of the Dem Convention. We'll see these numbers change throughout the next weeks.
Feel free to post your own or comment.
Here's the average of several polling and news organizations:
(includes Reuters/Zogby, LA Times/Bloomberg, USA Today/Gallup, FOX News and others)
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/14 - 08/24 -- 45.5 43.9 Obama +1.6
And here's a link to a voluntary poll. Don't know how accurate it is but it's sometimes more up to date.
2008 Polls - Presidential Election, Latest Political - Democratic Candidate Poll - Tracking Current