Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268

L.P. Farnsworth · #1 (**permalink**) 05-30-2008, 02:32 AM

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Electoral College: While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our next President. A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race.

For the first time this year, we run through all 50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of margins.

McCain 270, Obama 268. - HUMAN EVENTS

Of course, by November the margin will be at least 30-40 at a minimum, as the MSM is forced to examine Obama much more rigorously than they have; he has pretty much peaked, and is now losing votes in his own party. If the Dems were smart, they would nominate Hillary and lose Obama. If the DNC allows his nomination, they are de facto throwing the election.

With the same type of stagflation squeeze Ford and Carter faced looming ahead, the next Prez will likely be a one-term Wonder like Carter and Bush I, so maybe they do indeed don't want to win in November? McCain will probably not carry many Senate and Congressional seats with him when he wins.

cnredd · #2 (**permalink**) 05-30-2008, 02:42 AM

I disagree with this part...

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Michigan (17): Michigan may be McCain’s best chance to win a 2004 Blue State. As with Florida, McCain has the advantage out of the starting gate, having posted two strong primary performances here while Obama boycotted the state.

Democrats have won all of the top-tier statewide races this decade (three Senate contests, two governor races, and both Presidential races), and the GOP brand is damaged thanks, in part, to George W. Bush and the poor economy. But still, McCain has a good chance here. A Rasmussen poll in early May of 500 likely voters showed a dead heat between Obama and McCain.

Both candidates are weak in Michigan. McCain doesn’t naturally connect with hunters or union voters, but these are the very Democrats who have been rejecting Obama throughout the primaries. Obama’s base of college towns and black cities will give him a boost over previous Democrats, but his consistent weakness among union workers will drag him down.

Michigan, together with Ohio and Pennsylvania, promises to be the very heart of the 2008 battle. Libertarian Bob Barr could draw on enough gun-rights single-issue voters here to tip the scale. Leaning Democratic.

I would normally consider it "Leaning Democratic", but the DNC has given Michigan the finger this election season (and Florida), and I have a feeling that's gonna play a part...If it's "leaning" 3%, that 4% that are pissed could make the DNC regret creating stupid rules in the first place...

L.P. Farnsworth · #3 (**permalink**) 05-30-2008, 02:59 AM

Yes, I agree with you on Mich. As for 'stupid rules', the rules Mich. and Florida broke were in place since 1984, so it's not like nobody had time to change them over 24 years. I find all the whining about whether to seat their delegates to be pointless; they wanted to go media whoring entirely on their own, and in a pretty childish fashion, on the part of their local party organizations. They shouldn't be Democrats if they didn't like the rules.

Spencer Collins · #4 (**permalink**) 05-30-2008, 03:36 AM

I doubt the so called Obama/Clinton "Dream Team" will materialize but if it did it would blow this speculation right outta the water! Obama is viewed as weak and many believe that he will wimp out against McCain.I think Obama will attack McCain's multiple positions vigerously.The Mich/FL delegates wont even come into play if Obama/Clinton team up...time will tell but I think the D's are too stupid to understand that Obama can win primaries but the General election is far different.Them thar "rural" Democrats are not progressive "enough" to vote black unless Hill is on the same ticket.Just don't tell anyone,leave it up to the EC..

saltwn · #5 (**permalink**) 05-30-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farnsworth, L.P.

McCain 270, Obama 268. - HUMAN EVENTS

Of course, by November the margin will be at least 30-40 at a minimum, as the MSM is forced to examine Obama much more rigorously than they have; he has pretty much peaked, and is now losing votes in his own party. If the Dems were smart, they would nominate Hillary and lose Obama. If the DNC allows his nomination, they are de facto throwing the election.

With the same type of stagflation squeeze Ford and Carter faced looming ahead, the next Prez will likely be a one-term Wonder like Carter and Bush I, so maybe they do indeed don't want to win in November? McCain will probably not carry many Senate and Congressional seats with him when he wins.

I don't know if Obama has peaked, as you say, but I always thought Hillary had a better chance of defeating McCain.
In answer to the querie, "Maybe they ...don't want to win in November?", I don't think either party would purposely throw the election for an ify future run. Too many variables and too much dough-rae-me at stake not to have their man/woman in the White House.

L.P. Farnsworth · #6 (**permalink**) 05-30-2008, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saltwn

I don't know if Obama has peaked, as you say,

It's just my opinion of course, but I base it on the growing numbers of Democrats who support Hillary that will not vote for Obama, and that number will continue to grow as Obama is examined more closely in the coming months. His mistakes are coming faster and faster now.

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but I always thought Hillary had a better chance of defeating McCain.

She is the better choice, really; she can win swing states that Obama loses to McCain currently, and all her dirty laundry has been sifted through for over 16 years now; not so for Obama.

Quote:

In answer to the querie, "Maybe they ...don't want to win in November?", I don't think either party wold purposely throw the election for an ify future run. Too many variables and too much dough-rae-me at stake not to have their man/woman in the White House.

Yes; it was a tongue-in-cheek question, but if Hillary can't carry the super delegates, I'm certain they'll lose to McCain. They will still pick up Senate and House seats, though, I'm also certain of this.

Again, this is all just MHO; I'm no expert, and have no psychic powers. I do average about 50-50 on this stuff though, so far.

dabateman · #7 (**permalink**) 06-01-2008, 02:16 PM

New Mexico leans Democrat contrary to this analysis, and that is just enough votes to swing the election. Obama 273, McCain 265

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