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Elections Discuss Final election predictions at the Political Forums; I will go out on a limb now--and a rather rickety one, at that--and issue my Fearless Forecast of the ...

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Old 11-04-2012, 01:00 PM
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Default Final election predictions

I will go out on a limb now--and a rather rickety one, at that--and issue my Fearless Forecast of the battleground states (including those states that are part of a recently expanded electoral map).

No need to call all 50 states; the majority are pretty obvious. No serious person, for instance, really believes that California will vote for Gov. Romney. Or that Texas will go for President Obama.

Still, here are the swing states, as I see them:

Colorado: Very close. And this state has a very high percentage of women voters. Still, what I have seen would appear to indicate that the trend, however slight, is toward Gov. Romney. Romney

Florida: This state has been trending toward Gov. Romney for the past month or so. And the (traditional) Mediscare tactic does not appear to be taking hold there, among seniors. Romney

Iowa: This state is exceedingly close, in my view. Much will depend upon whether the Republican-leaning western portion of the state can effectively vitiate the Democratic advantage in the eastern part of the state. Still, the Des Moines Register's recent endorsement of Gov. Romney may be of some importance. Not because newspaper endorsements, per se, are a major factor anymore--newspapers simply do not have the same clout they once did, to shape voters' opinions--but because it may be emblematic of a trend. Romney

Nevada: Republicans have some reason to hope here. It is my understanding that early voting in Clark County (Las Vegas, which is heavily unionized) is down a bit from 2008 levels. Still, I rather expect President Obama to keep The Silver State in the blue column. Obama

New Hampshire: Another very close state, like Iowa. Still, the recent trends that I have seen appear to favor the former governor of a contiguous state. Romney

Virginia: Early voting in northern Virginia--a Democratic stronghold--appears to be rather disappointing, from a Democratic standpoint. So, although the public polls seem to show this as a real tossup, I think the margin might be a little greater than many expect. Romney

Wisconsin: Like most Republicans, I had a great deal of hope that Gov. Romney could carry The Badger State, following the failed recall of Gov. Scott Walker in June. But I am beginning to think the Democratic hold on this state will continue--although it could be close. Obama

Michigan: This state has looked to be in play for some weeks now. Still, the auto bailout (that did not play very well throughout most of the country) is, understandably, rather popular here. And I expect Detroit to deliver the state into Democratic hands. Obama

Pennsylvania: A recent poll in The Keystone State, showing Gov. Romney up by an astounding four percentage points, has given rise to some Republican hope here. And the fact that Gov. Romney is spending some valuable time and campaign funds (over this last pre-election weekend) in Pennsylvania may be revealing. Even so, this may be a little like Charlie Brown, who regularly thinks that this will be the time that Lucy really does hold the football--and yet it never quite happens. Obama

Minnesota Astonishingly, one new poll in Minnesota actually puts the Romney-Ryan team up by four points in The Gopher State. But this is an outlier. And frankly, I would be shocked if the Minneapolis-St. Paul area were not able to deliver this state to the Democratic candidate. (In fact, if President Obama manages to lose Minnesota, the race will effectively be over; it will be a landslide, in that event.) Obama

North Carolina: I continue to see this as a relatively easy takeaway from the 2008 Obama column. Romney

Oregon: Frankly, I cannot see this as a swing state. But some do, so I am including it here. Like Minnesota, however, it should be an easy win for the Democrat; and, if it is not, we are surely in landslide territory. Obama

Ohio: This is the big one. I do think Democratic inteneity is down, as compared with Republican intensity; and that is difficult for polls to measure. Moreover, those polls that whow President Obama with a lead in The Buckeye State appear to be assuming an electorate that is somewhat similar to the 2008 electorate; whereas I would imagine it would be a bit closer to the 2004 electorate. So I am predicting a mild upset here.Romney

If these predictions prove correct, it would amount to 295 electoral votes for Gov. Romney, versus 243 electoral votes for President Obama.

I should note, however, that many of the above states remain too close to call with any real degree of certainty; I have simply attempted to call every state, so as to leave none undecided. And I would be rather surprised if I were to be proven correct in 100 percent of those cases.

For the record, I am a Romney supporter; so those who wish to take my predictions with a grain of salt should certainly not feel inhibited about doing so.

Still, I have attempted to make some serious calls here. Within just over 48 hours, we will all know how I did; so I have no desire to go on record with predictions that I would regard as unlikely to be verified Tuesday.

Last edited by pjohns; 11-04-2012 at 01:12 PM..
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Old 11-04-2012, 02:16 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

I also am a Romney supporter, and I don't have any problem with your predictions. I have hopes for a couple of surprises. Pennsylvania would be worth a smile.

The big one would be Ohio, not just because of electoral vote power, but because it will be a an indication of whether we're right or wrong. If it starts to look like it's going Obama it's going to be a long night for us.

One thing worries me. Voter fraud. Dems say it doesn't exist. We know it does. How much will there be? That's the question. Valerie Jarret has confidence. That's worrying. Romney has to win by at least 5 points to insure a 1 point lead would be my best guess. One can only hope he succeeds. If he doesn't it will be the last time America sees anything even resembling a fair election, or a constitutional government.
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Old 11-04-2012, 07:30 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Whoever wins won't destroy America, so quit with apocalyptic nonsense.

As for the states:

Pennsylvania is a spectre for Republicans, they chase it every election but never put enough effort to try to win the thing. It's going for Obama.

Wisconsin- Pennslyvania Jr. this year, Obama wins it, but it'll be a lil closer because Ryan is the VP pick for Romney.

Now for the real toss-ups.

Ohio goes to Obama. He's held a decent lead throughout the election cycle. Romney has shot himself repeatedly over the auto rescue.

Florida is close as hell, and Obama won it last time by only a couple of points last time. I think Romney might squeak ahead, but barely.

North Carolina is also close, but not like Florida. Romney wins it by a couple of points.

Virginia is the center of the storm I believe. The state fundamentals still favor Republicans slightly, but the polling puts Obama slightly ahead. Coin-toss. If you had a gun to my head, small Obama win.

New Hampshire you'd think would be in Romney's pocket, being in the Northeast. The poll trends say Obama however, Romney pulls rare tied scores at best. Giving it to Obama.

Iowa is rural enough to give it a slight R tilt, but it is smaller than in Virginia, and Obama is stronger here and has a very good ground game. Obama wins this.

Colorado. Oh boy, it's like a western Virginia right now. Coin-toss...ish. Obama's polling has improved and I think he'll squeak by.

290-248 to 303-235 Obama victory, but it'll a lenghty election night with the phrase "Too-close-to-call" thrown so very often.
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:39 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Whoever wins won't destroy America, so quit with apocalyptic nonsense.
What "apocalyptic nonsense," exactly, did you find in my post?

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Ohio goes to Obama. He's held a decent lead throughout the election cycle.
Are you quite certain about that second observation?

If, for instance, Poll X shows The Incumbent at 48 percent and The Challenger at 46 percent, who is really "ahead," according to that particular poll?

I would argue that, if the poll in question is to be trusted, The Challenger is ahead there.

That is because the late Undecided vote typically breaks heavily against The Incumbent. (Note: Given the severe dissatisfaction with both major parties in 2012, there could be an unusually large vote for some third-party candidate, such as Gary Johnson. Still, I would expect Gov. Romney to vastly outpoll President Obama among late undecideds.)
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:23 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Of the main Battleground states Willard has a chance to take maybe 2 of them.. North Carolina for sure by a point or two and he may squeek out Florida because he has the Governor closing down early voting and sending voters home . The Voter suppression might work in a state like Florida which is basically a toss up.

As far as the other states, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia... Obama takes them all and puts an end to Willards run for Glory. Obama has led in most of the battle ground polls from the start and it's highly unlikely that it is suddenly going to flip for Willard in the last two days.

One thing the Republicans are not mentioning, and the Pundits are ignoring is tha fact that there is a third party Candidate on every state ballot this year. Gary Johnson, last I heard was pulling in 10% of the vote in Ohio.. And that 10% most likely comes off of Willards total . There's also a very strong third party run in Virginia so with the polling between Obama and Willard practically tied if the third party trims 1% point off of Willards total he will lose there too.

Florida remains the odd one out for me, it totally depends on the actual turnout. The myth that the Democrats are less enthusiastic is a Fairy tale spun by the right to give their base confidence but in reality the Democrats are breaking records in early voting .

Pennsylvania isn't in play like the right would like to think it is. Willard jumped on that train to try and draw Obama out of Ohio but Obama knows he's not losing Penn so he's not going there to defend.

The best thing is considering Obama takes all the states he is supposed to take such as Michigan, Penn, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, then all he will need is Ihio and he will reach the magic number...

Final Total is Obama 332- Willard 206... if Obama gets turn out in Florida... if not...

303 Obama to 235 Willard.....
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:29 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post

That is because the late Undecided vote typically breaks heavily against The Incumbent.
This is no longer true and has been debunked by experts in polling. Here's the article explaining why this is no longer the case .....

2012 Polls And The Long-Dormant 'Incumbent Rule'
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:32 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
What "apocalyptic nonsense," exactly, did you find in my post?



Are you quite certain about that second observation?

If, for instance, Poll X shows The Incumbent at 48 percent and The Challenger at 46 percent, who is really "ahead," according to that particular poll?

I would argue that, if the poll in question is to be trusted, The Challenger is ahead there.

That is because the late Undecided vote typically breaks heavily against The Incumbent. (Note: Given the severe dissatisfaction with both major parties in 2012, there could be an unusually large vote for some third-party candidate, such as Gary Johnson. Still, I would expect Gov. Romney to vastly outpoll President Obama among late undecideds.)
I was referring to the end of ID's post.

And as far as the incumbent rule, Kerry and Bush got 50% of the undecideds in 2004.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:48 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
I also am a Romney supporter, and I don't have any problem with your predictions. I have hopes for a couple of surprises. Pennsylvania would be worth a smile.

The big one would be Ohio, not just because of electoral vote power, but because it will be a an indication of whether we're right or wrong. If it starts to look like it's going Obama it's going to be a long night for us.

One thing worries me. Voter fraud. Dems say it doesn't exist. We know it does. How much will there be? That's the question. Valerie Jarret has confidence. That's worrying. Romney has to win by at least 5 points to insure a 1 point lead would be my best guess. One can only hope he succeeds. If he doesn't it will be the last time America sees anything even resembling a fair election, or a constitutional government.
How many official cases of voter fraud has there been in the last few years since you know it happens. 1 or 2? It's not many.Is that worth denying thousands the right to vote? Sure, republicans don't want the poor to vote. They know the poor would vote democrat. Some people don't have ID's and never needed them before. Get an i.d. Some don't have the money. Just like the poll tax in the old days. I
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:27 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

People predicting Romney landslide:


Romney Landslide: Here Are The Biggest Names Predicting It & How It Will Happen | TheBlaze.com
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Old 11-05-2012, 02:27 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Republicans saying that Romney would win, shocker.
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