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Elections Discuss Final election predictions at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by pjohns Translation: It has been disputed by the left's most cherished soothsayer, Nate Silver (who has almost ...

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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2012, 07:21 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
Translation: It has been disputed by the left's most cherished soothsayer, Nate Silver (who has almost achieved the status of deification among leftists), and by other organs of the left (such as the Huffington Post)...
Mark Blumenthal wrote that piece.

And it's still true, even if you attack the messenger. Kerry didn't get this big majority of undecideds in 2004, and there's no evidence that Romney will do any better.
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:28 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Here's my prediction...

If those of us who believe these polls are skewed are correct, Nate Silver is proven to be a joke, the InTrade idiots take a bath, the mainstream touts of media are proven to be clowns, Pollsters will never be trusted again (or until they admit D+8 didn't make sense - whichever comes first), and Romney wins in a walk to break 300.

Oh, and Wally can get some sleep, because this will all be over by 8:30 EST.

Last edited by Infidel Dog; 11-05-2012 at 10:33 PM..
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:39 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

My prediction...

If Obama wins, the Left will say it's because of Obama...

If Obama loses, the Left will say it's everybody else's fault except for Obama...

In other words, it'll be just like every other day of the last 3+ years...
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:56 PM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

I'll take a shot at this.

Colorado goes blue. I believe liberals will turn out for amendment 64, which is looking like a winner as of today. It'll be a close one for sure...R's up about 3% in early voting.

Florida - tough one to call. I think it will probably end up going red.

Iowa goes blue. Very close!

Nevada goes blue.

New Hampshire goes blue barely.

Virginia is going blue again...although much closer than 2008.

North Carolina is close, and dems on the ground there feel good about the state, but I don't think they will clear the hurdle. It goes red.

Pennsylvania isn't a battleground state. It will go blue.

Wisconsin, even though Ryan calls the state home, will go blue.

Ohio is key for a victory tomorrow. It's going to go blue because Romney would have let the car industry die and 1 out of 8 jobs are auto industry related in this state...and they remember, plus they seem pretty pissed about the jeep ad.

Michigan will be blue for the same reasons as Ohio.


My totals:
Obama 309
Romney 229


Even though I characterize these as red or blue, these states are actually very purple. Most will be very close.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:37 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
Here's my prediction...

If those of us who believe these polls are skewed are correct, Nate Silver is proven to be a joke, the InTrade idiots take a bath, the mainstream touts of media are proven to be clowns, Pollsters will never be trusted again (or until they admit D+8 didn't make sense - whichever comes first), and Romney wins in a walk to break 300.

Oh, and Wally can get some sleep, because this will all be over by 8:30 EST.
When was Nate Silver proven to be a joke? Did a good job in 2008, 2010, Scott Brown's 1st Senate race, etc.

And no, everybody isn't wrong but you and Dick Morris.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:39 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
My prediction...

If Obama wins, the Left will say it's because of Obama...

If Obama loses, the Left will say it's everybody else's fault except for Obama...

In other words, it'll be just like every other day of the last 3+ years...
Your side has its share of excuse-makers too.

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Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
As far as what America would be saying if it sent Obama back to the WH though, they'd be saying they're indoctrinated by MSM propaganda, or they're not paying attention.

http://www.politicalwrinkles.com/ele...tml#post492820
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:48 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

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Originally Posted by off the porch View Post
I'll take a shot at this.

Colorado goes blue. I believe liberals will turn out for amendment 64, which is looking like a winner as of today. It'll be a close one for sure...R's up about 3% in early voting.

Florida - tough one to call. I think it will probably end up going red.

Iowa goes blue. Very close!

Nevada goes blue.

New Hampshire goes blue barely.

Virginia is going blue again...although much closer than 2008.

North Carolina is close, and dems on the ground there feel good about the state, but I don't think they will clear the hurdle. It goes red.

Pennsylvania isn't a battleground state. It will go blue.

Wisconsin, even though Ryan calls the state home, will go blue.

Ohio is key for a victory tomorrow. It's going to go blue because Romney would have let the car industry die and 1 out of 8 jobs are auto industry related in this state...and they remember, plus they seem pretty pissed about the jeep ad.

Michigan will be blue for the same reasons as Ohio.
Agree with all your predictions quoted except Virginia. I think Romney will sneak that one away.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:54 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

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Originally Posted by Comet View Post
Agree with all your predictions quoted except Virginia. I think Romney will sneak that one away.
Could be...it's very close. 4 out of 5 new polls show an Obama lead...narrow lead. All just a guess since turnout is essential for a victory in any of these states.

Turnout is the only poll that counts.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:56 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

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Originally Posted by off the porch View Post
Could be...it's very close. 4 out of 5 new polls show an Obama lead...narrow lead. All just a guess since turnout is essential for a victory in any of these states.

Turnout is the only poll that counts.
My only thing is that these last few polls show a small, late tread in Obama's favor, which is why I would say he might win by a hair. It's going to be close as hell.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:31 AM
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Default Re: Final election predictions

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Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
My only thing is that these last few polls show a small, late tread in Obama's favor, which is why I would say he might win by a hair.

It's going to be close as hell.
I hope not too close...


I don't want to see this thing drag on any longer than tomorrow with voter fraud or court proceedings....
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