Today's Polling Numbers....... - Page 7

WallyWager · #61 (**permalink**) 09-08-2012, 09:34 AM

I like the part where nobody got annoyed when folks were posting polls for Romney's convention bump; and now that it's Obama's turn, "Shut up guys, polls don't mean anything!!".

I predict that Obama will end up with about the same small bump Romney got, whether or not it sticks remains to be seen. Of course I could be wrong, Rasmussen went from Romney+4 to Obama+2; but, we've got to let everyone in on this first.

Infidel Dog · #62 (**permalink**) 09-08-2012, 11:15 AM

Except nobody's offered a poll of the Obama bump yet, and 2 of the last 3 polls mentioned were more favorable to republicans.

There was a gallup poll that showed a good sized, Obama bump, but it hasn't been mentioned yet. Anyway I'm not sure gallup can be trusted anymore after being sued by the DOJ for offering numbers the Dems complained about. The bump poll wasn't a poll of likely voters.

Here's two more they say are favorable to Reps from yesterday.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012...less-dnc-hype/

Xcali · #63 (**permalink**) 09-08-2012, 11:23 AM

Gallop has Obama up +7 in his Approval rating and Rasmussen came out with the poll today of likely voters showing Obama +2.. that's a 6 point swing in one day. Most of the interviews were done before the end of the Democratic convention so the next round of polling will be a better indicator as to whether Obama gets a sustained bump or a blip on the screen. Either way Obama is still leading in most polls , especially in the swing states. All indications point to an Obama second term... and after the debates we'll get a clear picture for sure.

Infidel Dog · #64 (**permalink**) 09-08-2012, 11:44 AM

Here's some detail from the Rasmussen one.

Quote:

The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters. Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout. Platinum Members can monitor enthusiasm, demographic breakdowns and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.

The president’s bounce began the night after Bill Clinton spoke to the convention and received rave reviews. Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of the former president. Democrats overwhelmingly believe Clinton and Obama have similar views on how to fix the economy, but few Republicans and unaffiliated voters share that assessment. Among all voters, 59% see Clinton as a better president, while 19% prefer Obama. Democrats are evenly divided.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports

Some wider observations on another page. After discussing the horrible jobs report they discuss this other stuff.

Quote:

Former President Bill Clinton brought his considerable speaking skills to the Democratic National Convention podium Wednesday night to argue that Obama has the nation on the right economic course. But there is a huge partisan divide over whether Clinton and Obama actually agree on what’s best for the economy.

Obama continues to earn positive marks for leadership from nearly half the nation’s voters, but there’s a wide partisan difference of opinion on this question as well. It’s important to note, however, that these attitudes were measured prior to his prime-time speech Thursday night to the Democratic convention.

For the full month of August, the president's Job Approval rating moved up a point to 48% from 47% in July. That number has remained fairly steady for nearly three years. If the election were held today, the president's overall Job Approval number is a good indicator of what percentage of the vote he would earn.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney received a modest bounce following the GOP’s national convention two weeks ago and has led Obama in both the daily Presidential Tracking Poll and our daily Swing State tracking for several days now. But the president has already started to get a bounce of his own from the Democratic convention.

Economic issues were front and center at the Republican convention, while Democrats were happy to let social issues share the stage. Scott Rasmussen explains why in a new radio update. (Listen to Scott’s radio updates three times daily Monday through Friday on a radio station in your area, courtesy of the WOR Radio Network.)

Clint Eastwood delivered one of the most unusual convention speeches in recent memory at the Republican gathering, and America’s Political Class didn’t know what to make of it. But most Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party still view the 82-year old movie icon favorably, while Democrats now offer mixed reviews.

After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans has jumped to the highest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. The number of Democrats slipped to 33.3% from 34.0% in June and July. Those who say they are not affiliated with either major political party fell to 29.2% last month, the smallest number of unaffiliated voters since 2009.

Republicans again lead Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot after the two were tied the week before for the first time since November. Republicans have consistently held a modest advantage on the ballot since June 2009.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi continue to be the most disliked leaders of Congress, but none of the top congressional leaders earns high positive reviews from voters.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week?s Key Polls - Rasmussen Reports

mlurp · #65 (**permalink**) 09-08-2012, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Infidel Dog

Except nobody's offered a poll of the Obama bump yet, and 2 of the last 3 polls mentioned were more favorable to republicans.

There was a gallup poll that showed a good sized, Obama bump, but it hasn't been mentioned yet. Anyway I'm not sure gallup can be trusted anymore after being sued by the DOJ for offering numbers the Dems complained about. The bump poll wasn't a poll of likely voters.

Here's two more they say are favorable to Reps from yesterday.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012...less-dnc-hype/

Well some of the talking heads on the 24/7 News are saying back to back conventions do play out best for the second rounder, yet that to drops in 2 weeks or so.

Whatever I think this will be a very close race as most of the voters are dug in already.
And Obama real worry is the undecided who are looking at the polls on employment.

And even those who have decided ought to be looking at them to. As it could mean their future.

MrLiberty · #66 (**permalink**) 09-10-2012, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xcali

They actually mean a lot more than you are willing to admit. They have built in margins of error and most of the time the really good ones are right on the money. It doesn't mean anyone is relying on poll numbers to determine a winner, I'm sure just like myself everyone realizes a poll can be wrong.. But it does give us an indication on which direction a race is going and of course we get the added bonus of annoying you by posting as many polls as possible.

Now that is down right scary, I agree with everything you just posted here.

MrLiberty · #67 (**permalink**) 09-10-2012, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xcali

Gallop has Obama up +7 in his Approval rating and Rasmussen came out with the poll today of likely voters showing Obama +2.. that's a 6 point swing in one day. Most of the interviews were done before the end of the Democratic convention so the next round of polling will be a better indicator as to whether Obama gets a sustained bump or a blip on the screen. Either way Obama is still leading in most polls , especially in the swing states. All indications point to an Obama second term... and after the debates we'll get a clear picture for sure.

Like ID said, the DOJ is suing Gallup because the obama administration didn't like the numbers coming out. Now all of a sudden Gallup gives obama a 7 point lead? That is questionable at best.

Now the world is right again.....

Xcali · #68 (**permalink**) 09-10-2012, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrLiberty

Like ID said, the DOJ is suing Gallup because the obama administration didn't like the numbers coming out. Now all of a sudden Gallup gives obama a 7 point lead? That is questionable at best.

Now the world is right again.....

Well I will agree that some polls are questionable.. However In the case of the DOJ suing the Gallop polling service the claim is bulls***. The DOJ didn't file the lawsuit first of all, it joined a lawsuit filed by a former Gallop employee and the case wasn't anywhere near being about Obama's numbers. It had something to do with Gallop inflating the time it would take for them to do a certain project so they could charge the Federal Government more than they would have paid otherwise.. More Conspiracy theories from the right to add fuel to an already burning fire...

“According to the whistleblower’s complaint, Gallup violated the False Claims Act by giving the government inflated estimates of the number of hours that it would take to perform its services, even though it had separate and lower internal estimates of the number of hours that would be required,” the Justice Department explained. “The complaint further alleges that the government paid Gallup based on the inflated estimates, rather than Gallup’s lower internal estimates.”

DOJ sues Gallup polling firm | WashingtonExaminer.com

The whistle-blower lawsuit, filed by a former Gallup employee, claims the firm gave the government inflated estimates for polling services and made federal agencies pay far more than what Gallup’s internal estimates called for, the DOJ announced.

Read more: Margin of error: DOJ sues Gallup - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com

The lawsuit was originally filed by former Gallup employee Michael Lindley, who says he was fired in July 2009 after warning his superiors that he would go to the Justice Department if the company did not stop illegally overbilling the federal government. Lindley filed a whistleblower complaint alleging that Gallup kept two sets of books and illegally inflated the budgets for its work on two federal contracts.

The Anatomy Of A Daily Callerspiracy Theory | Blog | Media Matters for America

saltwn · #69 (**permalink**) 09-10-2012, 07:57 AM

Justice Department officials joined a whistle blower lawsuit and alleged that The Gallup Organization, a major polling firm, intentionally overestimated the amount of time it would take to complete a job for the government and was paid accordingly.

faithful_servant · #70 (**permalink**) 09-10-2012, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xcali

They actually mean a lot more than you are willing to admit. They have built in margins of error and most of the time the really good ones are right on the money. It doesn't mean anyone is relying on poll numbers to determine a winner, I'm sure just like myself everyone realizes a poll can be wrong.. But it does give us an indication on which direction a race is going and of course we get the added bonus of annoying you by posting as many polls as possible.

Polls aren't accurate and anyone who thinks they are is just plain stupid. Thos built in margins of error are ALWAYS best case scenarios where the polling pool is considered to be optimum - they aren't. The questions being asked generally limit the responses to a restricted set which opens th e door to gross misinterpretations. Example:
1000 people get polled with the question: Which is worse method of capital punishment - Being burned to death or being beaten to death? The poll results show that 42% of the people polled think that being beaten to death is not as bad as being burned to death. The people that paid for the poll to be done produce the following headline: 58% of Those Polled Support Being Beaten To Death As A Method Of Capitol Punishment. Then people like you who don't take the time to find the facts of the poll go ballistic and start using this kind of crap to support anti-death penalty legislation.

There is only ONE poll that matters in an election and that's the one at the ballot box. Every poll taken prior that is nothing more than an effort to present a fact that supports a predetermined POV. That's why you can find polls that show complete OPPOSITE results.

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