Political Wrinkles  

Go Back   Political Wrinkles > Political Forums > Elections
Register FAQDonate PW Store PW Trivia Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Elections Discuss Today's Polling Numbers....... at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by Infidel Dog Yes. I already told you that. They disallowed the use of the auto-front bots in ...

Reply
 
Share LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #31 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 09:03 AM
Xcali's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Arkansas
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,345
Thanks: 262
Thanked 968 Times in 635 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
Yes. I already told you that. They disallowed the use of the auto-front bots in February, but here we are in August, and the members are still complaining.
Yes but not all of the complaints are about the 2012 presidential race. They also put in security to recognize when someone is using one of these Bots and can shut them down once a complaint is filed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
But as I also said I'm not even sure those particular auto front bots are the problem. There are others crawling all over the site. There are ways to game the system.
Most of them are allowed though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
So suppose you want to register yourself 30 times as 39 separate users through say a VPN? And what if you're say somebody like say those guys in the Brett Kimberlin/Neal Rauhuser cabal, and you invite your followers? Could you and your group move the numbers? Would you? I say most likely
It's highly unlikely anyone is signing up under 30 different names. That would require 30 different Emails, as well as 30 different IP Addresses. If the intrade site doesn't allow Proxies then it would be impossible for even a Spam bot to register more than one name.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
I'm not saying this is without a doubt being done. I'm saying when you watch the way the numbers move at intrade there's suspicious activity, and moving those numbers to create a false impression to the outside is possible
There may be some suspicious activity, but that depends on whether or not a person is biased one way or another. For instance, would you still see this " Suspicious Activity" If the numbers were flipped in Romney's Favor?...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
What I'm really saying is in my opinion putting too much faith in intrade is silly. I don't trust it.
That's why Not many People I know use it as a trusted source. I use it as a decent indicator as to which direction a race is going, but I don't trust it as being 100% correct. I've seen it come out wrong before, although it's mostly close with the numbers it has been known to be off.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #32 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 11:18 AM
Infidel Dog's Avatar
The New Cool
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,684
Thanks: 734
Thanked 2,104 Times in 1,472 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xcali View Post
It's highly unlikely anyone is signing up under 30 different names. That would require 30 different Emails, as well as 30 different IP Addresses. If the intrade site doesn't allow Proxies then it would be impossible for even a Spam bot to register more than one name.
This sort of thing is done. There's a name for the dummy accounts I can't remember. Look up the hacking exploits of the group that works with Progressive operative Neil Rauhauser. He brags about it, and there's quotes of him telling how it's done. I believe they hide IPs through some sort of VPN (virtual private network). As I recall when I read about this sort of thing one time there are VPNs which are not vulnerable to proxy tracking software. If that's not the case tell me how they can hack Skype, and launch those "Swatting" attacks they're famous for without getting prosecuted.

Last edited by Infidel Dog; 09-02-2012 at 11:23 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #33 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 03:50 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,306
Thanks: 901
Thanked 2,301 Times in 1,401 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Given that Intrade deals with actual money in their stock trades, botting in this case can be used to game the system and make a few ill-gotten dollars. Club Bing before it was shut down was notoriously popular for botters using constantly updated botting programs in order to win rooms full of free prizes, which in turn would be sold for cash.
__________________
"Bush tortured people, Obama just kills them."
---Noam Chomsky

Last edited by WallyWager; 09-02-2012 at 04:07 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #34 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 04:03 PM
saltwn's Avatar
PW Enlightenment
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: in the natural state
Posts: 40,963
Thanks: 30,570
Thanked 16,928 Times in 11,480 Posts
Send a message via Yahoo to saltwn
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Given that Intrade deals with actual money in their stock trades, botting in this case can be used to game the system and make few ill-gotten dollars. Club Bing before it was shut down was notoriously popular for botters using constantly updated botting programs in order to win rooms full of free prizes, which in turn would be sold for cash.
why I am against computer voting.
__________________
...
Reply With Quote
  #35 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 04:07 PM
WallyWager's Avatar
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Michigan
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,306
Thanks: 901
Thanked 2,301 Times in 1,401 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by saltwn View Post
why I am against computer voting.
Me too, that idea is incredibly likely to backfire in such a massive way. I really hope we don't ever turn elections into someone's Facebook poll.
__________________
"Bush tortured people, Obama just kills them."
---Noam Chomsky
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to WallyWager For This Useful Post:
  #36 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 05:43 PM
Xcali's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Arkansas
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,345
Thanks: 262
Thanked 968 Times in 635 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
This sort of thing is done. There's a name for the dummy accounts I can't remember. Look up the hacking exploits of the group that works with Progressive operative Neil Rauhauser. He brags about it, and there's quotes of him telling how it's done. I believe they hide IPs through some sort of VPN (virtual private network). As I recall when I read about this sort of thing one time there are VPNs which are not vulnerable to proxy tracking software. If that's not the case tell me how they can hack Skype, and launch those "Swatting" attacks they're famous for without getting prosecuted.
We call them " Sock Puppet" accounts. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, just that it's unlikely a conspiracy to fix an election. Hackers are serious scary.. and virtually impossible to stop. in fact it's easier to stop a Bot than it is a Hacker with an Agenda.....
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #37 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 06:18 PM
Infidel Dog's Avatar
The New Cool
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,684
Thanks: 734
Thanked 2,104 Times in 1,472 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xcali View Post
We call them " Sock Puppet" accounts. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, just that it's unlikely a conspiracy to fix an election. Hackers are serious scary.. and virtually impossible to stop. in fact it's easier to stop a Bot than it is a Hacker with an Agenda.....
That's it. That's what Rauhauser calls them. Don't you hate that when it's on the tip of you tongue, and won't come to you? Thanks. I'm glad one of us had the time to look it up. Sorry about the time it took you. I was watching you on "who's online".

It does happen. Not to fix elections, but to create false online opinion, yeah. I gave you the search term Rauhauser. You should have been able to find it from there. Do you want some help? Maybe if I have time later in the evening I can find the links for you.
Reply With Quote
  #38 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 09:32 PM
Xcali's Avatar
Scholar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Arkansas
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,345
Thanks: 262
Thanked 968 Times in 635 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Dog View Post
That's it. That's what Rauhauser calls them. Don't you hate that when it's on the tip of you tongue, and won't come to you? Thanks. I'm glad one of us had the time to look it up. Sorry about the time it took you. I was watching you on "who's online".

It does happen. Not to fix elections, but to create false online opinion, yeah. I gave you the search term Rauhauser. You should have been able to find it from there. Do you want some help? Maybe if I have time later in the evening I can find the links for you.
I only remembered it because we had a recent problem with sock puppet accounts at one of the web sites I manage. It's a celebrity Fan site, and they were running a poll to choose the number one celebrity of the year. W had one guy create 45 sock puppet accounts and he voted for his favorite.. Ended up winning the comp.. which didn't have a prize...

After that we installed a couple of Mods to block Proxies, and then we adjusted the software to block spam bots. It's a nightmare for little sites like this to keep up with so I can only imagine the headaches at a place like Intrade...
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #39 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2012, 11:23 PM
Scholar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Tennessee
Gender: Male
Posts: 4,908
Thanks: 2,880
Thanked 1,595 Times in 1,094 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrLiberty View Post
Ya know, neither candidate has ever cracked the 50% marker this last year.
And that is very bad news for President Obama, since the incumbent traditionally gets very little of the Undecided vote.

Not that presidential elections are determined by the popular vote. They are not, of course.

But even when there is a discrepancy between the winner of the popular vote and the winner of the electoral vote (as, for instance, in 2000), there is seldom much of a difference--as a percentage--between the popular vote received by the incumbent and he popular vote received by the challenger.

So if, in the final poll of likely voters, the incumbent registers, say, 47 percent; and the challenger shows 45 percent; that means that the challenger is effectively ahead, in that particular poll...
Reply With Quote
  #40 (permalink)  
Old 09-03-2012, 01:25 PM
MrLiberty's Avatar
professional curmudgeon
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 16,991
Thanks: 8,686
Thanked 8,247 Times in 5,614 Posts
Default Re: Today's Polling Numbers.......

And in today's polling numbers..........

Romney 48%

obama 44%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports
__________________
Courtesy of Swissman

A gun in the hands of a free man frightens and angers the autocrat, not because he fears the power of the gun, but, rather, the spirit of the man who holds it.

ANONYMOUS
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to MrLiberty For This Useful Post:
Reply

Tags
numbers, polling, today

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0