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Elections Discuss A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein at the Political Forums; Obama's problem with the electoral map aren't the swing states...It's the "safe" blue states that are BECOMING swing states... A ...

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Old 06-12-2012, 04:24 PM
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Default A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

Obama's problem with the electoral map aren't the swing states...It's the "safe" blue states that are BECOMING swing states...

A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

Quote:
So, I've already stated on here that the best indicator of a real flip is if the out-of-power party flips at least one state they failed to at their last successful flip. Going deeper and further back (into the 1800s), the rule stands, because states change. Parties change. If there is a strong enough desire by the voters to flip the party of the White House it is made evident in states once thought safe or at least safer. It has been true every single time the parties have flipped, and will remain so.

So, the last time the Republicans won back the White House, Bush carried the states of Georgia and West Virginia- two states that went to Carter in 1980- and lost the following states:
Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. These states are considered part of the "Blue Wall" and are (for the most part) considered to be President Obama's base states.

How did these states break for Obama, and how are they polling now?
Washington
2008: Obama 57-40
2012: Obama 51-40 (Strategies360)
Oregon
2008: Obama 57-40
2012: Obama 47-43 (SUSA)
California
2008: Obama 61-37
2012: Obama 48-32 (FIELD)
Hawaii
2008: Obama 72-27
2012: Obama 57-32 (PPP)
New Mexico
2008: Obama 57-42
2012: Obama 54-40 (PPP)
Minnesota
2008: Obama 54-44
2012: Obama 54-39 (PPP)
Iowa
2008: Obama 54-44
2012: Romney 47-46 (Rasmussen) (flip)
lllinois
2008: Obama 62-37
2012: Obama 56-35 (MarketShares)
Michigan
2008: Obama 57-41
2012: Romney 46-45 (EPICMRA) (flip)
Wisconsin
2008: Obama 56-42
2012: Obama 48-43 (WAA)
Pennsylvania
2008: Obama 54-44
2012: Obama 46-40 (Quinnipiac)
Maryland
2008: Obama 62-36
2012: Obama 58-35 (PPP)
Delaware
2008: Obama 62-36
2012: unavailable as nobody has bothered to poll. I wouldn't either.
New Jersey
2008: Obama 57-42
2012: Obama 49-39 (Quinnipiac)
New York
2008: Obama 63-36
2012: Obama 56-31 (Quinnipiac)
Connecticut
2008: Obama 61-38
2012: Obama 50-38 (Quinnipiac)
Rhode Island
2008: Obama 63-35
2012: Obama 54-37 (PPP)
Massachusetts
2008: Obama 62-36
2012: Obama 59-34 (Suffolk)
Maine
2008: Obama 58-40
2012: Obama 50-42 (CriticalInsights)
Vermont
2008: Obama 67-30
2012: Obama 58-33 (Castleton)

So far we see two states that have shown favor to Romney. In the remaining states everyone expects Obama to win, his leads have shrunk, in some cases rather dramatically.

In the past month we have seen no nonpartisan polling firms release data showing Obama up in a single McCain state. This is on top of Romney's improving numbers in Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina. The only state he has done markedly worse in is New Hampshire. To say that the electoral map is beginning to fall out of Obama's favor is an understatement.

We saw a similar phenomenon in the "Bush41" states in early/mid 2008 polling. States that went to elder Bush despite Clinton winning in 1992- North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina- suddenly polled a helluva lot closer. Indiana, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina flipped entirely.

While everybody keeps watching the same tired list of purple states, the ones that general consensus assumes are behind the President but are now flirting with the opposition (or polling in the opposition's favor entirely) are the ones we should be focused on.
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Old 06-12-2012, 05:01 PM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

There are only a couple on that list Obama remotely has a chance of losing.
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Old 06-12-2012, 05:22 PM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

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Originally Posted by Comet View Post
There are only a couple on that list Obama remotely has a chance of losing.
I disagree...

If you look at the number comparisons of each state, you'll see the 2008 numbers equal 98% or 99%...Because that's a decision that has already come to pass...

But if you look at the CURRENT numbers, you'll find that they equal 91%...90%...and a few even less...

That means there are a few places with a ton of "undecideds", and they usually swing to the non-incumbent...USUALLY...

"By how much" may determine a couple of flips...

Look at Pennsyvania...46%-40%...That's only 86% total...Even if you count a few Ralph Nadar or Libertarian fans, you still get a good 12% undecided......If that goes 9% to Romney and 3% to Obama, it's an even split...and that's assuming the poll is accurate...
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Old 06-12-2012, 06:51 PM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

The link in the OP added this chart to get a better picture...

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Old 06-13-2012, 08:59 AM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

Quote:
Originally Posted by cnredd View Post
I disagree...

If you look at the number comparisons of each state, you'll see the 2008 numbers equal 98% or 99%...Because that's a decision that has already come to pass...

But if you look at the CURRENT numbers, you'll find that they equal 91%...90%...and a few even less...

That means there are a few places with a ton of "undecideds", and theyJ usually swing to the non-incumbent...USUALLY...

"By how much" may determine a couple of flips...

Look at Pennsyvania...46%-40%...That's only 86% total...Even if you count a few Ralph Nadar or Libertarian fans, you still get a good 12% undecided......If that goes 9% to Romney and 3% to Obama, it's an even split...and that's assuming the poll is accurate...
call it the Morris doctrine I guess but any state Obama is below 50% can be taken.
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Old 06-13-2012, 09:06 AM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

Out of all the states listed in the article, I would venture only three of the twenty will go to Romney.
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Old 06-13-2012, 09:17 AM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

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Originally Posted by Comet View Post
Out of all the states listed in the article, I would venture only three of the twenty will go to Romney.
Don't count Oregon out. People around here (including Dems.) are pretty disillusioned with Pres. Obama. If it wasn't for Portland and Eugene, we'd be solidly in Romney's corner and there's a lot of dissatisfaction in those two liberal strongholds due to the lack of jobs.
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Old 06-13-2012, 09:37 AM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

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Originally Posted by faithful_servant View Post
Don't count Oregon out. People around here (including Dems.) are pretty disillusioned with Pres. Obama. If it wasn't for Portland and Eugene, we'd be solidly in Romney's corner and there's a lot of dissatisfaction in those two liberal strongholds due to the lack of jobs.
I am guessing Oregon, New Mexico and Iowa are the ones most likely on the list to fall from Obama, if they fall at all.

None of the others are very likely at all to swing to Romney.
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Old 06-13-2012, 09:44 AM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

Quote:
Originally Posted by Comet View Post
I am guessing Oregon, New Mexico and Iowa are the ones most likely on the list to fall from Obama, if they fall at all.

None of the others are very likely at all to swing to Romney.
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:04 PM
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Default Re: A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

I hope they're falling off the republican congress wall and voting dem in house and senate as well as for Prez.
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