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Economics Discuss Gold is rising again at the Political Forums; Originally Posted by ShivaTD When it came to investing long term gold and silver aren't really what a young person ...

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Old 08-02-2016, 08:16 PM
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Default Re: Gold is rising again

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When it came to investing long term gold and silver aren't really what a young person should be investing in. As I noted I made my first gold purchases in the early 1970's when I bought 12 Krugerrands (12 ounce or one troy pound of gold) for about $125 each. Based upon current market value for gold I've earned about 5% interest that barely covers inflation.

When a person is young they need to invest in high yield securities (e.g. stocks) and then mitigate the risks by highly diversifying their investments so that individual losses are offset by higher overall gains. It's relatively easy to find investments where the average return on investment is 10%-15%.

The $1,500 I spent purchasing 12 Krugerrands around 1972 is worth a little more $13,000 today based upon the $1,100 market rate for gold while that same $1,500 invested with a 10% return on investment would be worth about $110,000. As the person nears retirement then is the time to move a significant percentage of their acquired assets into gold and silver and other secure investments (e.g. bonds and annuities that provide income). Gold and silver act as a hedge against inflation or shorter term variations in the investment markets like the stock market crash of 2008-2009 but gold and silver don't provide "retirement income" unless you sell it and then you're spending the "principle" of the investment.
The metals part of my portfolio is tiny. I only own metals just in case all currency collapses and I might need it for trade. Obviously that type of situation would be pretty messed up and metals might not even matter.
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Old 08-02-2016, 09:23 PM
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The metals part of my portfolio is tiny. I only own metals just in case all currency collapses and I might need it for trade. Obviously that type of situation would be pretty messed up and metals might not even matter.
The exact reason one should own some metals.

But you are right, When TSHTF a burger might well go for a Gold Eagle. So as for me, I have more of my metal portfolio invested in brass and lead. Two, three, or more 9mm housed in the proper dispenser might well keep that Krugerand in your pocket.
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Old 08-04-2016, 12:01 PM
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The exact reason one should own some metals.

But you are right, When TSHTF a burger might well go for a Gold Eagle. So as for me, I have more of my metal portfolio invested in brass and lead. Two, three, or more 9mm housed in the proper dispenser might well keep that Krugerand in your pocket.
PM's are always a store of value even when they are not regarded as a "good investment". In 1948 you could take three shiny new Roosevelt Dimes and buy a gallon of gas; today those same three dimes in barter would get you TWO gallons of gas -- dropping out the ridiculous federal and state taxes (69.8 cents a gallon where I live).

US 90% silver coin is instantly recognized and it's value is easily ascertained and agreed upon by all parties.

That's the main reason I have 90% silver coin, to use to buy goods and services when the dollar is either rejected out of hand in commerce or you need a wad of FRN's to buy a loaf of bread . . .

A $6 burger today might well go for $1350 in a TEOTWAWKI scenario but that's the "value" measured in fiat, not real money. To buy that burger with gold after a crash you would be measuring in milligrams not ounces because the value of an ounce of gold would track the devaluation of the currency (if the burger purchasing power devaluation is constant through the economy).

See Venezuela, the 25% +/- global ramp from December's bottom is evident plus the 66% +/- devaluation of the VEF (against the USD):









.
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Old 08-04-2016, 12:55 PM
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PM's are always a store of value even when they are not regarded as a "good investment". In 1948 you could take three shiny new Roosevelt Dimes and buy a gallon of gas; today those same three dimes in barter would get you TWO gallons of gas -- dropping out the ridiculous federal and state taxes (69.8 cents a gallon where I live).

US 90% silver coin is instantly recognized and it's value is easily ascertained and agreed upon by all parties.

That's the main reason I have 90% silver coin, to use to buy goods and services when the dollar is either rejected out of hand in commerce or you need a wad of FRN's to buy a loaf of bread . . .

A $6 burger today might well go for $1350 in a TEOTWAWKI scenario but that's the "value" measured in fiat, not real money. To buy that burger with gold after a crash you would be measuring in milligrams not ounces because the value of an ounce of gold would track the devaluation of the currency (if the burger purchasing power devaluation is constant through the economy).

See Venezuela, the 25% +/- global ramp from December's bottom is evident plus the 66% +/- devaluation of the VEF (against the USD):









.
I think you kinda missed my point. I didn't make it well My bad because I did it tongue in cheek.
When TSHTF desperate people will find hunger weighing in on their bargain. If I have a meal and all you have is hunger and a gold piece, you had better hope I'm a generous person.

With much of this going on one should have in pm's of brass and lead.

At the end of civilization, it might well come to gold, bullets, and toilet paper.
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Old 08-04-2016, 05:21 PM
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Default Re: Gold is rising again

In a TEOTWAWKI world, a hamburger might go for a specific quantity of lead and brass, if I see the scenario differently.
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Old 08-05-2016, 07:47 AM
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If I have a meal and all you have is hunger and a gold piece, you had better hope I'm a generous person.

With much of this going on one should have in pm's of brass and lead.

At the end of civilization, it might well come to gold, bullets, and toilet paper.
People will always be engaged in commerce even in a EOTWAWKI situation. Black markets are quickly established and are typically better supplied and reliable than any "official" pipeline of goods. There are reports from Venezuela that one ounce of silver is being exchanged for 3 - 4 weeks worth of food. It comes down to what are people willing to pay and yes, how capable they are defending what they have.

I don't know why anyone would think that I am ignoring that people will always want to take what I have by force . . . That is a truth even in a stable economy with a functioning government and rule of law . . .

Why you think I, as one who argues for defensive use of firearms need to be reminded / convinced that guns and ammo are a integral part of preparedness escapes me. It thought we were having a focused conversation on PM's.

Actually, if you want to drill down to the nitty-gritty, I won't need your cheeseburger, I moved out of a metro area to and own free and clear a defendable semi-remote home with tillable land with wildlife and livestock and I am amassing a significant food cache. I ain't just pontificating on a message board; I'm living it.

I 'm actually waiting on the redi-mix truck right now, pouring the pad today at the back of the house for a Sturdi-Built Greenhouse . . .
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Old 08-05-2016, 07:49 AM
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In a TEOTWAWKI world, a hamburger might go for a specific quantity of lead and brass, if I see the scenario differently.
And with that unwarranted confidence you could just as easily die hungry and your starving family will be tasked with burying your carcass.

I would lend them a shovel . .
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Old 08-05-2016, 10:47 AM
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People will always be engaged in commerce even in a EOTWAWKI situation. Black markets are quickly established and are typically better supplied and reliable than any "official" pipeline of goods. There are reports from Venezuela that one ounce of silver is being exchanged for 3 - 4 weeks worth of food. It comes down to what are people willing to pay and yes, how capable they are defending what they have.

I don't know why anyone would think that I am ignoring that people will always want to take what I have by force . . . That is a truth even in a stable economy with a functioning government and rule of law . . .

Why you think I, as one who argues for defensive use of firearms need to be reminded / convinced that guns and ammo are a integral part of preparedness escapes me. It thought we were having a focused conversation on PM's.

Actually, if you want to drill down to the nitty-gritty, I won't need your cheeseburger, I moved out of a metro area to and own free and clear a defendable semi-remote home with tillable land with wildlife and livestock and I am amassing a significant food cache. I ain't just pontificating on a message board; I'm living it.

I 'm actually waiting on the redi-mix truck right now, pouring the pad today at the back of the house for a Sturdi-Built Greenhouse . . .
I am always impressed by your wisdom and calm common sense. We are having a conversation on PM's. But, I consider Brass and Lead to be amoung them. Even in relatively good times.

Are you suggesting the current respect for Law and order are "good times?'
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Old 08-05-2016, 05:04 PM
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I am always impressed by your wisdom and calm common sense. We are having a conversation on PM's. But, I consider Brass and Lead to be amoung them. Even in relatively good times.

Are you suggesting the current respect for Law and order are "good times?'
Thanks and I agree.

If there are only two conditions under consideration, the current state of respect for law & order and a SHTF condition Free-for-All like Mad Max or The Purge, then yeah, today is the "good times" LOL.
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Old 08-05-2016, 06:35 PM
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Thanks and I agree.

If there are only two conditions under consideration, the current state of respect for law & order and a SHTF condition Free-for-All like Mad Max or The Purge, then yeah, today is the "good times" LOL.
BTW I forgot to mention, I also own a free and clear defendable homestead in the waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out back. 80 acres of game filled woods a small pasture, lots of solar and wind capacity with 5 potable and clear springs on it.
A creek flows from them to a small secluded pool full of panfish.

Bring it on.
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