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Economics Discuss US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low at the Political Forums; 'President Obama's team touted the new Job numbers as a sign the economy is improving. Mitt Romney, along with several ...

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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 10-06-2012, 08:21 AM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

'President Obama's team touted the new Job numbers as a sign the economy is improving. Mitt Romney, along with several economists, expressed deep skepticism about the report.

Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, tweeted: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers."

The Labor Department reported that the rate dipped in September from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent. How they came upon these numbers are being hotly contested. It was a however, glimmer of hope for Obama, who's trying to recover from a disappointing beating he took in the debate. His central faulty argument is that the economy is moving in the right direction.

'This morning, we found that the unemployment rate had actually fallen to its lowest level since I took office,' Obama implied at a Virginia rally Friday.

But skeptics pointed out that not only is 7.8 percent unemployment hardly a "real recovery," but the report reflected an uptick in part-time jobs and the number of self-employed people who're trying to do what the economy can't. Further, they stressed that there appeared to be a huge disconnect between the modest number of new jobs reported and the significant decrease in the unemployment rate.

The Labor Department, based on a broad survey of employers, said 114,000 jobs were added in September.

But the unemployment rate itself is based on a separate "household survey," which showed a whopping 873,000 new jobs in September according to the pollsters.

"This must be an anomaly," former Congressional Budget Office director Doug Holtz-Eakin said in a snap analysis of the numbers. Their numbers are "out of line with any of the other data." he said.

Holtz-Eakin noted the household survey is smaller, suggesting it is not as reliable. He also called the estimate of 873,000 new jobs "implausible."

He said the report was otherwise "solid," but reflected "the economy is merely moving sideways." Not forward or Up.

Liberal economist Dean Baker, with the Center for Economic and Policy Research, called the September rate drop "almost certainly a statistical fluke."

[Edited for length and content.]

...............

Jack Welch, the former chairman of General Electric Co, provoked cries of outrage in Washington on Friday when he suggested that the White House manipulated September job figures for political gains.

White House officials dismissed as "ludicrous" a tweet Welch sent to his more than 1.3 million followers that gave the impression President Barack Obama's administration may have rigged the data as a way of recovering from a poor showing at Wednesday night's debate with Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger for the White House.

"Unbelievable jobs numbers these Chicago guys will do anything! can't debate! so change numbers," Welch said in a posting on Twitter. Obama formerly served as a senator from Illinois.

The tweet was repeated more than 2,000 times, with many posts comparing Welch to New York real estate tycoon Donald Trump, who during his bid for the presidency loudly argued that Obama was not born in the United States, and Clint Eastwood, who gave a widely admired speech at the Republican National Convention in August.

Welch, who with his wife, Suzy Welch, writes a column for Reuters, said he is not "accusing anyone of anything." He stood by his tweet. 'Anyone' being the key word for the moment.

"These numbers just don't go with the economic activity." Welch said. "You draw your own conclusions."

Officials in Washington quickly dismissed the idea that the Labor Department report - which showed unemployment falling to a near four-year low of 7.8 percent - could be rigged. And why wouldn't they say that? They are in defense mode seeking to use this little bit of sunlight in their dark world after the debate.

In response to the Welch statement: Alan Krueger repsponded "That's a ludicrous comment. No serious person believes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics manipulates its statistics," said Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. "The jobs report and all of their other statistics are prepared by career employees. They use the same process every month. They use the same process for Republican and Democratic administrations." And this is where the back peddling will begin.

Later on MSBNC, Welch told host Chris Matthews: "You don't think it's coincidental that we've had the biggest job surge since 1983? These numbers defy logic." And that is a good point. And true as well. They do defy logic.

The tweet was by no means Welch's first criticism of Obama on his Twitter feed, where he has regularly spoken out in favor of Romney. During the presidential debate in Denver, Colorado, on Wednesday night, Welch tweeted: "HOW can anyone vote for Obama after this performance? he has demonstrated his incompetence."

Other tweets agreed with Welch's assertion.

"In regards to today's jobs report---I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here," said Florida Representative Allen West, a Republican, on Twitter.

Officials with the Bureau of Labor Statistics defended their own methods and findings, noting they are compiled by career civil servants, not political appointees. BLS is, however, only one of two operations that together combine their accounted information and then release that data as noted by an NBC report.

As for Welch, 76, he says he went through reviews of more than a dozen companies in different industries this week and none were stronger in the third quarter than they were in the second.

"You can't just call me old and senile," he said. "Figures don't Lie. But liars figure they say."
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Old 10-06-2012, 08:24 AM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

Not even Government can create Jobs at this Rate!


Especially not Government
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Old 10-06-2012, 09:29 AM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

Last year it went up 4/10 at once and 3/10 at once. Now it does it again and it's questionable? Nah. I see whining and rooting for failure from the right.
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:37 PM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

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Originally Posted by SwissMan View Post
Not even Government can create Jobs at this Rate!


Especially not Government
Maybe not actual "Jobs", but when it comes to stats and data, as any Global Warming skeptic will tell you, it's a case "Yes they can".

Although speaking of jobs, apparently this amazing jump in jobs is not unprecedented. I read somewhere the last time we saw such a thing was by Reagan. Although, I think that time it was part of a trend, and not the month before the election
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Old 10-08-2012, 07:36 AM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

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Originally Posted by Mikeyy View Post
Last year it went up 4/10 at once and 3/10 at once. Now it does it again and it's questionable? Nah. I see whining and rooting for failure from the right.
The problem is the other economic measurements didn't change to reflect this surge in employment. U6 didn't decrease. Job creation didn't show a jump. GDP growth didn't escalate. How is this possible if the unemployment number isn't cooked?
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:54 PM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

Also there is the amazing amount of jobs not reflected in the creation of new jobs stat. Something like over 400,000 jobs not seen in the new jobs created stat.

There was the remarkable discovery of previously unseen government jobs a few weeks ago, and one can postulate part-time jobs, but even so, if that is all it is, how does this new stat even say things are improving. Apparently if you deduct the tricky unseen, below the surface stats the unemployment rate actually rose.
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Old 10-11-2012, 12:53 PM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

I found the following report from Business Insider, well, interesting:

Quote:
After this morning's surprisingly positive jobless claims number was released, three things happened:

1.Lots of people felt better about the economy
2.Democrats cheered because they thought the number would help Obama
3.Republicans seized on confusing reports that the numbers had "excluded claims from one large state" (probably California) and blasted the number as wrong and misleading.


Since then, the argument has raged on, and there have been a variety of different reports and interpretations.

Well, we're glad to say that we've finally gotten to the bottom of what happened.

We spoke to a source at the Labor Department. According to this source, who is an analyst at the Department, here's what happened: ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week's jobless claims. Assertions that "a large state" was excluded from the report are patently false.

HOWEVER... It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state--California--were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state's jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week. The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week's jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week's or the following week's. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected. (Bold added)
But that is just a snippet.

Here is the link to the entire article: What Happened With Jobless Claims - Business Insider
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Old 10-11-2012, 01:57 PM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
I found the following report from Business Insider, well, interesting:



But that is just a snippet.

Here is the link to the entire article: What Happened With Jobless Claims - Business Insider
Keep hope alive. We can't have things getting better. It wouldn't be right.
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Old 10-11-2012, 02:12 PM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

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Originally Posted by Mikeyy View Post
Keep hope alive. We can't have things getting better. It wouldn't be right.
Better honest bad news than dishonest good news.
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Old 10-11-2012, 02:15 PM
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Default Re: US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low

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Originally Posted by faithful_servant View Post
Better honest bad news than dishonest good news.
Fact is and you can't deny that the economic trends are all on the upswing. You keep play conspiracy all ya want but it's getting pretty hard to deny.
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