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Civil Rights & Abortion Discuss Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate at the Political Forums; Vice President Joe Biden is getting ready to make recommendations on how to reduce gun violence in the wake of ...

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Old 01-17-2013, 10:06 AM
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Default Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

Quote:
Vice President Joe Biden is getting ready to make recommendations on how to reduce gun violence in the wake of the school shooting in Newtown, Conn.

But he says his task force is facing an unexpected obstacle: slim or outdated research on weapons.

Public health research dried up more than a decade ago after Congress restricted the use of some federal money to pay for those studies.

A Researcher Under Fire

Art Kellermann was raised in eastern Tennessee, where his father taught him how to shoot a long gun when he was 10 years old. Kellermann grew up to become an emergency room doctor — and a target for gun-rights groups when he started asking questions like, "If a gun kept in a home was used, who did it shoot, and what were the consequences?"

Kellermann found people turned those guns on themselves and others in the house far more often than on intruders. "In other words, a gun kept in the home was 43 times more likely to be involved in the death of a member of the household than to be used in self-defense," he says.

Kellermann says the National Rifle Association and other Second Amendment advocates leaned on his then-employer, Emory University, to stop the research. That didn't work.

So, he says, "they turned to a softer target, which was the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], the organization that was funding much of this work. And although gun injury prevention research was never more than a tiny percentage of the CDC's research budget, it was enough to bring them under the fire of the NRA."`1
....

'Good Data'

Mark Glaze, who directs the group Mayors Against Illegal Guns, says he thinks it was "a bad idea that the newspaper did this," but he says the right response to that case is not to shut down the flow of information.

"You can't make good policy unless you have good data," he says.

Glaze is pressing Congress to get rid of the Tiahrt amendments. He's urging the Justice Department to look for patterns involving crooked gun dealers who put weapons into the hands of criminals. And he wants more money for research about how to make safer guns.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House committee that deals with the health budget, puts it this way: "We conduct evidence-based research into car crashes, smoking, cancer, all sorts of accidents and injuries. So why shouldn't we be doing the same kind of research into how to prevent firearm injuries and how to save lives?"

DeLauro says she'll fight to make sure funding limits on research stay out of appropriations bills.

But Tiahrt, her onetime colleague, says that's not the core of the problem.

"We have to get to the cause of it: mental illness, the violence in our culture," he says. "Those are the things that I think Vice President Biden ought to be focusing on."

Public health experts like Kellermann say they're willing to have that kind of broad conversation, but it needs to be supported with a lot more research.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...ebate?roundtwo

a gun kept in the home was 43 times more likely to be involved in the death of a member of the household than to be used in self-defense
Simple enough...
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Old 01-17-2013, 10:32 AM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

Why do people keep quoting Kellermann, his "43 times more...." conclusion has been totaly bedunked. Interesting that in an article complaining about "Lack of up to date research" they quote inaccurate research.

Risks and Benefits of Keeping a Gun in the Home...[Fulltext, Aug 5 JAMA. 1998;280:473-475] (c) AMA 1998

Kellermann-Gun Ownership as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the Home
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Old 01-17-2013, 10:52 AM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

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Originally Posted by lurch907 View Post
Why do people keep quoting Kellermann, his "43 times more...." conclusion has been totaly bedunked. Interesting that in an article complaining about "Lack of up to date research" they quote inaccurate research.

Risks and Benefits of Keeping a Gun in the Home...[Fulltext, Aug 5 JAMA. 1998;280:473-475] (c) AMA 1998

Kellermann-Gun Ownership as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the Home
I don't think you understand what "debunked" means.
Raising questions and showing areas where additional research could be conducted in order to gather more information is not "debunking".

For example, pointing out that households with previous criminal activity result in a higher potential for gun violence is begging the question.
Pointing out that some people lie about whether they have guns doesn't adequately refute the point made. In fact, I find it hilarious that it would CONTRADICT some of the other arguments made in the very same article...

One of the glaring things I can't help but note out of this repeated misdirection is a failure to give a real competing number on the same subject...
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Old 01-17-2013, 11:47 AM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

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Definition of DEBUNK
: to expose the sham or falseness of
Yup, pretty much describes what has been done to Kellermann's use of sloppy, biased research techniques used to reach pre-determined, unproven conclusions.

Moving on.
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Old 01-17-2013, 12:51 PM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

Kellerman was totally discredited by most criminologists in the country for his slanted "research."
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:38 PM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

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Originally Posted by foundit66 View Post
I don't think you understand what "debunked" means.
Raising questions and showing areas where additional research could be conducted in order to gather more information is not "debunking".

For example, pointing out that households with previous criminal activity result in a higher potential for gun violence is begging the question.
Pointing out that some people lie about whether they have guns doesn't adequately refute the point made. In fact, I find it hilarious that it would CONTRADICT some of the other arguments made in the very same article...

One of the glaring things I can't help but note out of this repeated misdirection is a failure to give a real competing number on the same subject...
Just ONE of the large number of glaring inaccuracies in Kellerman's research:
Quote:
Kellermann's own data suggests that for all gun homicides of matched cases no more than 34% were murdered by a gun from the victim's home. (GunCite's analysis of Kellermann's data.) (The data, such as it is, is available at http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cgi/archive.prl?study=6898). 34% is probably on the charitable side since it assumes all family member or intimate homicides were commited by offenders living with the victim which is highly unlikely given that not all intimates (as defined in the Kellermann dataset: spouse, parents, in-laws, siblings, other relatives, and lovers) were likely to have lived with an adult victim.
So if teh shooter was a brother living in on another continent, Kellerman considered them to be living with the victim because they were brothers. His research is RIDDLED with crap like that. The math is wrong, the assumptions are wrong, the data is cherry-picked. Kellerman's research should be saved and archived and used as an example of how NOT to do research. The worst thing is that if Kellerman had a point, the research would have been accurate. The fact that it was so blatantly screwed up shows that either Kellerman's theory is grossly wrong, that Kellerman is one of the most incompetent researchers EVER and/or that he's FOS.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:41 PM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

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Originally Posted by MrLiberty View Post
Kellerman was totally discredited by most criminologists in the country for his slanted "research."
I would love to see you actually try to document this...

I have no doubt that you can parade out a lot of NRA sympathetic people who will say "Nuh-uh!!", but beyond that you're blinders are limiting the scope of what's REALLY going on out there...
There is plenty of other REAL research out there...

Conclusion from another research article (written by a criminologist)
Therefore, the significance of the few gun control measures found to be effective should not be overlooked. There is empirical support for some moderate gun controls. I favor a national "instant records check," which would screen for high-risk gun buyers similar to owner license and purchase permit systems, but without the delays and arbitrary administration which sometimes characterizes those controls. The system should cover nondealer transactions as well as dealer sales, and apply to rifles and shotguns, as well as handguns. Also, tighter licensing of gun dealers and increased enforcement of carry laws may be useful.
Guns and Violence: A Summary of the Field
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:44 PM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

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Originally Posted by foundit66 View Post
a gun kept in the home was 43 times more likely to be involved in the death of a member of the household than to be used in self-defense
Simple enough...
Sure is...

And NOW we have two questions...

1) "What is the percentage of people with guns in their home that WANT those guns in their home?"...

I'm guessing that answer is pretty high...

2) Whose decision should it BE to have those guns in the home?
  • The individuals in that home
  • The government
  • Depends...For elitist reporters, celebrities and "important" people, they can, but for the lowly American serfs, no ()

I'll go with the first answer...
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:48 PM
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Post Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

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Originally Posted by faithful_servant View Post
Just ONE of the large number of glaring inaccuracies in Kellerman's research:

Quote:
Kellermann's own data suggests that for all gun homicides of matched cases no more than 34% were murdered by a gun from the victim's home. (GunCite's analysis of Kellermann's data.) (The data, such as it is, is available at http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cgi/archive.prl?study=6898). 34% is probably on the charitable side since it assumes all family member or intimate homicides were commited by offenders living with the victim which is highly unlikely given that not all intimates (as defined in the Kellermann dataset: spouse, parents, in-laws, siblings, other relatives, and lovers) were likely to have lived with an adult victim.
So if teh shooter was a brother living in on another continent, Kellerman considered them to be living with the victim because they were brothers. His research is RIDDLED with crap like that. The math is wrong, the assumptions are wrong, the data is cherry-picked. Kellerman's research should be saved and archived and used as an example of how NOT to do research. The worst thing is that if Kellerman had a point, the research would have been accurate. The fact that it was so blatantly screwed up shows that either Kellerman's theory is grossly wrong, that Kellerman is one of the most incompetent researchers EVER and/or that he's FOS.
First of all, GunCite link is conveniently broken…
So it's hard to validate their claim of analysis of Kellerman's data. I've seen too many people "reinterpret" other people's research data in a completely fallacious way.

Secondly, you give a perfect example of begging the question…
WHO “committed” the assault with the gun IS IRRELEVANT to the factor of the gun CAUSING the harm.
Two scenarios.

Scenario A
Gun in the house.
Jack lives in the house. John lives in the house.
Jack shoots John with that gun.

Scenario B
Gun in the house.
John lives in the house.
Jack shoots John with that gun.

Does it matter whether or not Jack lives in the house in Scenario B?

The important factor is that John was shot with that gun that was in John’s house.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:45 PM
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Default Re: Lack Of Up-To-Date Research Complicates Gun Debate

First off, there's no question that a lack of up-to-date research complicates the gun debate.

Second off, being a technical kind of guy, I think research is good, provided it is sound. I've never understood why folks spend a lot of time gathering data and then presenting it in a way that inclines an independently-minded reader to believe that the presentation is biased. There's no question that the ready availability of a firearm in the home increases the odds that a firearm in the home will be involved in the death a family member (as opposed to say a near impossible availability of a firearm in the home resulting in a firearm being involved in the death of a family member). Duh. I didn't need to read any research to come to that conclusion.

Having acknowledged that, the problem with folks like Kellermann is that they present their data either without

1. Fully expounding on the details surrounding the death of the family member to include points raised by other posters in this thread, or

2. Carefully choosing the title of the research (and in failing to do so giving the sensationalist media a raison d'ętre), or

3. Balancing the results with research that digs into things like the number of times that a firearm in the home was used to defend the home against an intrusion.

Their failure to consider these points, while giving their supporters reason to cheer, just gives the opposition ammunition to discredit them.

And third off, as an Endowment Life member of the National Rifle Association, in the next couple of days I intend to post a rather lengthy tome regarding my personal opinion (which differs markedly from the position of the NRA - I'm on the revolutionary fringe - God bless America!) on a common sense approach to gun violence in this country. Stay tuned....
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