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Old 06-16-2020, 01:02 PM
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Default Re: Wally's 2020 prez guesses.

Originally Posted by WallyWager View Post
Thought I'd try it out in picture form this time, with shorter explanations on fewer states.

Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Hampshire, and Iowa are the battlegrounds this election. Anything else would take some serious movement at this point.

AZ is currently Lean Biden. You have a state moving more blue pretty quickly ala Virginia, a strong Dem running against a weak Rep in the Senate, and Trump approvals are just not good over there. It's more Republican fundamentals however keep this from being a Likely Biden state.

GA and TX are Lean Trump and for the same reason. Even though polling is tight and both states are becoming more Democratic, unlike Arizona it's happening more slowly and not fast enough for to see this as a pickup right now for Biden. 2024 might see them are true coin flips, possible Lean D, but not now. Growth in Atlanta in particular is gonna push Georgia more and more blue. today however, they'll still red enough IMO to keep them in the Trump column for now.

OH and IA,(Lean Trump), and WI and PA(Lean Biden), are also in a similar boat, but in the other direction. I think the Midwest as a whole is moving more Republican long-term, but there's a lot of Trump regret in these states, including Michigan and Iowa. Also, Biden has a strength in the industrial states that Hilary simply did not possess, so I think both of these factors will help him hold and flip a few states. In fact I think Michigan and Minnesota are just might be out of reach for Trump atm.

NC and FL are probably the truest of tossups, but Biden's strength with black voters and older voters respectively, along with population and demographic changes in North Carolina, nudge them over to the Lean Biden camp. But it's a point or less nudge.

I put NH in the Lean Biden camp too, but it's teetering on Likely. They really, really don't like Trump in the Northeast, but it barely went for Hillary last time. Biden is safer there than she was, but it's not a lock yet.

Trump's poor approvals, and poor handling of Covid-19 and the national protests, have really harmed his re-election chances. And it's a shame for him because there were good opportunities to show strong, empathetic leadership in times of crises, just before an election. His campaign team should have been on this like a fly on stink. There's still a shot if the economy really starts picking up steam and he just clings onto some good numbers and shuts up about anything else until November, but it's looking rough.
Bold of you, Wally.
It's entirely too early to make predictions, in my opinion. There hasn't been a single debate between Trump and Biden yet. I'm thinking that Biden may come off as mentally incompetent in debates. That alone could swing independent voters in battleground states.
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